According to the United States, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken will visit Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Israel from February 4 to 8. The reason why Blinken is so "desperate" is nothing more than to extinguish the flames of war that continue to spread outward in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Just before Blinken left for the Middle East, the Israeli army fought again and expanded the scope of its military operations, carrying out air strikes in the West Bank and the territory of the Lebanese armed group Allah. It is reported that counting this time, Blinken has visited the Middle East 5 times in 4 months, and now it is estimated that Blinken's eyes are blindfolded, and he can also discredit flying from the United States to the Middle East.
According to the British Reuters news agency, Blinken's main task this time is to facilitate Israel and "Hamas" to reach a ceasefire plan in exchange for hostages, which is roughly as follows: "Hamas" releases the Israeli hostages it has taken, while the Israeli army suspends military operations in Gaza, and the two sides stop the ceasefire. In an interview with **, Blinken seemed to be very optimistic about this plan, claiming that the negotiations were relatively smooth, and the plan also took care of the interests of all parties well, and there was a high probability of landing.
But can this plan really lead to a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel, and Blinken will not return empty-handed this time? I'm afraid it's not that easy. According to the news exposed by the US media, there are still quite a few differences among the top leaders of "Hamas" on this plan. One of the preconditions for "Hamas" to accept this plan is that Israel will end its "aggression" against Palestine, but the Israeli leadership has refused to accept all the conditions put forward by "Hamas".
After such a whole and another stalemate, Blinken came, whether he could persuade "Hamas" or persuade Israel, it seems that neither side can do it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not care about Blinken's face at all, and directly poured cold water on Blinken, making it clear that before achieving a "complete victory", the Israeli army could not withdraw its troops from Gaza, nor would it release the detained Pakistani personnel. If Netanyahu has this attitude, "Hamas" will not be able to budge.
In the past, Israel was a docile little sheep in front of the United States, but this time it is different, it has become a bull, and the United States almost ripped off the reins, but Netanyahu is just disobedient, what is the reason why the United States can't stop Netanyahu? The fundamental reason for this is that the United States and Israel have completely different stances and interests on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
The United States does not allow the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to expand and wants the two sides to cease fire as soon as possible, because it is afraid that the expansion of the conflict will affect many US interests in the Middle East. Moreover, as the conflict expands, it will be more difficult for the United States to control the Middle East. Although in recent years, the United States has adjusted its global strategy and shifted its focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, in any case, it is impossible for the United States to give up its control over the Middle East, and the Middle East, the "oil valve of the world", still has a great impact on the global pattern.
At present, the United States wants to assist Ukraine, deal with Russia, and in the Indo-Pacific region, it wants to contain China. The United States simply cannot devote too much energy and resources to the Middle East, so the White House hopes that the chaos in the Middle East will be calmed down as soon as possible and will not affect its strategy towards China and Russia. As for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the United States is also in favor of the "two-state solution." Obviously, the United States does not want to offend Israel or turn against the Arab countries. This strategy of balancing between the two sides is also a treasure of the United States in controlling the Middle East.
However, Israel obviously does not want to see the United States "make peace", and its only idea is that either Israel exists as a state or a Palestinian state, and there is no room for the "two-state solution" to be implemented. Under this idea, Israel is required to completely eliminate "Hamas" and remove the threat posed by "Hamas" to itself, and at the same time seize Palestinian territory as much as possible, expand its land area, and preferably annex all Palestine.
Therefore, Israel does not accept the "two-state solution", and if it does, the road to Israel's expansion will be completely blocked, and a competitor will appear next to its pillow for no reason. Israel's strategic environment is very sinister, surrounded by a circle of Arab countries, no matter how strong its military strength is, there is not enough room for maneuver, and it may wake up one day, and the entire country has been trampled by the opponent.
Do you say Israel can say yes? It is impossible to accept whoever comes. Although Israel will call the United States a "big brother," if the "big brother" wants the "little brother" to compromise on a matter of life and death, the "little brother" may not recognize this "big brother." If the United States and Israel cannot reach a unified consensus on the distribution of interests and their positions, it will be impossible for the two sides to work together to promote the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue. Even if the plan is implemented this time and the two sides of the conflict temporarily cease fire, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will still recur. Project Sword