The key to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the recognition that Palestine is not a modern state, and this issue is also pervasive in the understanding of the Arab countries of the Middle East. This difference makes the Middle East somewhat lacking in the concept of a modern state, which is why many people think that the Middle East is "educated without a state".
In China, this misunderstanding is particularly serious, because we are accustomed to looking at problems with a "unified view of history." Only by understanding these can we truly understand the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
It all started with the events of 1947......
Why is there no winner in the Middle East?
When the 1947 plan for the establishment of separate states for Israel and Palestine was released, who was the first country to express its opposition?Not Palestine, not Israel, but Jordan, founded in 1946, immediately claimed the "West Bank".
The local "Palestinian population" is directly given a "household register" in Jordan. Why is Jordan doing this?Because during that period, neither the two states of Palestine nor Israel existed.
Did the United Nations (Britain, the United States, etc.) take Jordan's feelings into account when drawing this solution on the map?Thus, the Palestinian-Israeli issue arose and led to an endless Israeli-Palestinian conflict and several wars in the Middle East.
So, what about the ordinary people of Palestine?They have become accustomed to this life, for thousands of years. Therefore, the vast majority of the Palestinian population does not understand whether they are Palestinians, Jordanians or Egyptians, but the elites in their region certainly do.
In 1951, the King of Jordan was assassinated by Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. When the new king took office, he still promised to give his full support to the PLO, but the result did not work out.
The PLO's plan to proceed with the assassination of the Jordanian king who supported them was unsuccessful, but it led to the so-called Jordanian civil war, a clash between Jordanians and Palestinians with Jordanian household registers.
After this civil war, the Jordanians began to realize that they were Jordanians and the Palestinians were themselves, which confused them. Nevertheless, the national enlightenment finally began.
Although it remains to be seen how effective it will be, it is better than nothing. After that, Jordan sent the PLO to Syria and arrived in Lebanon.
The disputes of various countries in the Middle East are closely related to the national land issue. In the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Jordan, Egypt and other countries have not taken practical action, mainly because if Israel can be defeated and annexed its territory, then can Palestine still exist?
Therefore, they chose to solve the problem through the United Nations. Historically, Saddam's reaction after the annexation of Kuwait also confirms this. And the root of all this, although essentially the contradiction between the Western world and the Arab world, from the perspective of the Arab world, is that the enlightenment of the modern state has not yet been completed.
The influence of Middle Eastern civilization has not been fully realized in the modern system. Therefore, whether it is a number of Middle East wars or Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, there are no real victors in the Arab countries.
In this case, the Arab world needs a great leader to lead the internal integration and create the conditions for the introduction of a modern system. If the status quo is maintained, it may only become a stage for other forces, and it will not be able to achieve real development.
This is the reality of the Middle East today, despite the fact that historically, the Middle East, East Asia, and Europe were the world's three great powers.
In the context of globalization, the two major economies of Europe, the United States and East Asia have formed a strong competitive situation, while the Middle East region has lagged behind in economic development due to historical reasons and is unable to play an important role in the international arena.
This is like the three major battlefields of interest in history – Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia, which have gathered the wealth of human civilization and thus become the object of contention among major economies.
The main reason why the United States invests so much energy and resources outside the American continent is that these places are the heart of globalization and the key to realizing the national interests of the United States.
Therefore, the no-winner status in the Middle East is determined by a combination of historical and economic factors.
At the national level, who will emerge victorious in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?The answer is obvious, Russia. Putin's performance during this period has been recognized by the majority of people, and he can be said to be the real winner.
Before the outbreak of the conflict, Putin was under very much pressure and almost fell into passivity. However, when the United States' attention shifted to Israel, Putin's situation began to improve.
He has taken two main actions: one is to intensify his attack on Ukraine in order to ensure his own victory and hopefully bring Zelensky to its downfall. "
In order to achieve its political goals, Russia began to take the initiative to intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, supporting Palestine and standing in the Arab world. However, military involvement is not the best policy, as it is beyond Russia's capabilities and could cause unnecessary trouble.
Therefore, Russia has chosen to carry out the so-called "control of the field", but it needs the cooperation of China. In the process, Ukraine has become a loser, and Zelensky has become a victim.
At the moment, there are four more countries that are oscillating between winning and losing, and it is impossible to determine their position.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict tugs at a global nerve, and both the United States and Russia are trying to control the situation. But if Israel emerges victorious, the United States will undoubtedly be one of the winners.
An Israeli victory would have a direct deterrent effect on Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia, especially Iran. You must know that the key to the Middle East problem often lies in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and Israel's destruction of this key can not only consolidate US hegemony, but also pose a threat to the China-Russia-Iran triangle, in which Iran is the weakest link.
Iran is the second uncertaintie, and if it wants to expand its influence through the "arc of resistance", it will have to make a complete break with Israel. However, if Israel wins the conflict and achieves the annexation of Gaza, which has been formally proposed by Israel, it is questionable whether Iran will be able to continue to play the role of regional leader.
The third uncertainty is Israel, which, combined with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict over the past month, shows that Israel is trying to integrate the Middle East region, which is no longer a pipe dream.
In other words, Israel has made this calculation and is no longer just acting in the shadows. The risks and rewards of this gamble are very high, and Israel is probably the most challenging of the four uncertainties.
The last one to mention is Palestine, which everyone must be aware of. As for China's victory or defeat, I believe that the real masters are often hidden in the people.