Since the beginning of 2024, the market has continued to fall, and the bottom has fallen again and again. It is really a "lesson" for some new people and stockholders. At the same time, it also opened the eyes of some old people again.
With the technicals and fundamentals no longer able to explain the continuum**, the long market bottom has made it extremely difficult for investors.
Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb), the father of the famous "black swan" theory, has published a book - "Antifragile: Benefiting from Uncertainty".
The term "antifragile" refers to the ability to be able to adapt and resilient in the face of volatility, randomness, and risk, and even benefit from challenges and stresses.
In the current market environment, investors should learn how to be "antifragile".
Embrace uncertainty
Keynes once said, "The market will continue to be irrational for longer than you can hold on" because market volatility is uncertain, and these uncertainties are the main "pain" in investing**.
There are ups and downs in the market, and big ups and downs are inevitable. Extreme ** is always testing the psychological tolerance of investors.
The "Partial Equity Mixed Index" is based on all partial equity hybrid ** indexes that have been established for more than 3 months in the market. It can relatively well reflect the average income performance of the market-wide equity hybrid**.
Reviewing the historical trend of the "partial stock mixed ** index", in addition to this round of **, it has also experienced 4 obvious large **:
It can be found that after each experience, the partial stock mixed index has indeed risen back, and the opportunities have indeed fallen out, and each round of trough corresponds to a better layout opportunity, but the loss is real gold**, and few people can overcome the consideration of human nature.
It can be confirmed that every "uncertainty" is not necessarily a disadvantage, and in the long term, the "uncertainty" brought about by market turbulence in investment often breeds "certainty" opportunities.
When mid-quality assets are mistakenly killed, discerning investors are expected to obtain relatively large excess returns in the long run if they can make decisive moves.
History has proven to us that the opening of a round of ** is often sudden and unpredictable. Embracing uncertainty and adapting to changes in the market and environment through continuous adjustment and iteration is the key to becoming antifragile and reaping the benefits of volatility.
Rationality strikes aggressively
Investors are always overly optimistic when the market is overheated, thinking that the upward trend will continue, and they do not hesitate to buy at a high level; He was extremely pessimistic at the freezing point of the market, thinking that the next step was bottomless, and he did not hesitate to cut the meat before dawn.
"Linear extrapolation" of market trends is human, but in many cases, our perception of risk is prone to cognitive biases, but it may not be true. So what we have to do is to try our best to overcome the "inertial thinking" in the environment.
In fact, every time the market has bottomed in the past, the market has produced such and such medium- and long-term pessimistic problems that felt completely impossible to start at the time, and extreme market conditions have always bred extreme macro narratives.
Huaxia ** believes that the current extreme pessimism is actually no different from the idea of "core assets will always rise" at the beginning of 21, which is based on the linear extrapolation of the current sentiment.
When people are looking for arguments for the "** decade", the market is not far from peaking; While people are looking for reasons for long-term pessimism, the market is already in the bottom zone.
When signals from the bottom of the market start to appear, remember not to "anchor" existing book losses that can easily inspire fear. After all, whether the layout at the bottom of the market can be profitable in the long future naturally has nothing to do with TA. Sometimes offense is also the best defense, you might as well take a batch or fixed pitch to layout, which can not only reduce the risk of mistakes, but also accumulate chips for the future.
Whether it's the economy or investment, the cycle will always be the last. How the ups and downs of the cycle and the hardships on the way destroy a person's will will reward and sublimate those winners who persevere to the end.
How can a market trend be reversed?
Liang Hao, vice president of Penghua**, believes that the reversal of the market trend requires the breaking of macro inertia, including the dredging of the currency-credit transmission mechanism and the real easing of the US dollar.
At present, although there are twists and turns in the path, the policy care intention is clear. This year, the macro policy will take into account the stabilization of growth and structural adjustment, the consistency of fiscal and monetary policy directions will be further enhanced, and the industrial policy of cultivating new momentum will also continue to exert force.
In addition, from the perspective of the institutional construction and micro liquidity of the market itself, the two-way regulation of the capital market has been strengthened, the IPO, refinancing and major shareholders have simultaneously regulated and controlled the "throttling", the two financial and insurance funds have been further relaxed, and the market capital has been "open source", and the policy support for the capital market has a clear signal.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai**, believes that on the whole, although some fine-tuning of macro policies will be made in 2024, the general direction has not changed. At the same time, the expansion of domestic demand and supply-side structural reform have been considered as a whole, mutually reinforcing, and many requirements have been put forward in resolving risks. Therefore, in 2024, the overall view is that opportunities and risks coexist, and opportunities outweigh risks.
Liang Hao said that from the perspective of total economy, the current inventory cycle is in the bottom area, and the drag of deep destocking is easing. From the perspective of demand structure, consumption is still in the process of recovery, and cultural tourism consumption remains resilient; There is a stratification of commodity consumption: high-end resilience while middle-income groups pursue the ultimate cost performance, and under the new consumption trend, new products and new channels continue to emerge (such as discount stores); In the context of the decline of export dividends in the epidemic, the destocking of Europe and the United States, and the restructuring of the industrial chain and the first relationship, there are still many structural bright spots, and some products (such as automobiles, ships, etc.) have undertaken the upgrading of emerging market demand and the expansion of the share of the first chain by virtue of the competitive advantage formed by the production efficiency advantage and the climbing value chain. Overall, the market has not fully explored the investment opportunities implied by these positive changes.