As a world-renowned mobile phone chip manufacturer, Qualcomm's Snapdragon chips have always been known for their high-end and advanced processes, and there are basically few competitors in the field of mobile phone SoC chips, and only Huawei's Kirin chips and Apple's A-series chips can be compared.
Domestic smartphone manufacturers basically choose to cooperate with Qualcomm to purchase Qualcomm's mobile phone SOC chips, and even some manufacturers will also release Qualcomm's Snapdragon chip as one of the selling points of the new machine.
However, what Qualcomm never expected was that since the advent of Huawei's Kirin 9000S chip and Huawei's announcement that it would terminate the purchase of Qualcomm's 4G chips, the Chinese market has gradually changed. Now that China Chip has released the latest data, even foreign media have said: The general trend has gone.
Judging from the public data, the scale of chips we produce and manufacture will reach 361 in 2023500 million, an increase of 34% year-on-year. Not only that, in 2023, we have reduced the number of integrated circuits by a total of 58.9 billion, and our production capacity has also reached a scale of 479.5 billion.
There is no doubt that now that China's chips are accelerating the realization of domestic substitution, Qualcomm's chips will only become more and more difficult to sell in the Chinese market, which will have a serious impact on Qualcomm.
According to the data released by market ** institutions, Huawei can obtain about 30 million chips per year**, and Qualcomm will ship about 35 million to 40 million chips to Huawei every year from 2019 to 2023. This also means that if Huawei maintains the scale of its mobile phone business, it will no longer need to import any chips from Qualcomm.
Then Qualcomm will lose at least 30 million chips every year, and if you take into account the impact of Huawei's increased mobile phone shipments on the shipments of other smartphone manufacturers, and then affect the purchase of Qualcomm chips, then Qualcomm's losses will be even greater.
In fact, Qualcomm is not the only one affected, and it can even be said that the entire chip industry chain will be greatly affected. With the gradual decrease in global chip demand, the total number of chips that can be shipped each year is actually about the same. We are also the world's largest chip consumer market, and the improvement of localization in the chip field means that Chinese customers have begun to choose more to buy Chinese chips.
This has also led to a rapid decrease in the number of chips shipped by Samsung, Intel, AMD and other manufacturers, and the number of orders received by upstream chip foundries such as TSMC and Samsung will also decrease. After the order demand decreased, the number of devices that can be shipped by equipment manufacturers such as ASML, Nikon, and Canon has also continued to decrease.
Judging from the news that has come out so far, this chain reaction has actually begun. At the beginning of January, TSMC announced a reduction in the foundry of chips on the 7nm process and 28nm process**, and also announced that it would stop purchasing 10 EUV lithography machines that it is expected to purchase in 2024.
The revenue of many internationally renowned semiconductor companies, including Samsung, Intel, and NVIDIA, has been affected, and Samsung will even lose a lot in 2023.
With the support of the Chinese market, domestic chip manufacturers have begun to expand production capacity, and it is expected that 37 new wafer foundries will be added in 2024. In the case of rapid expansion of production capacity, domestic chip manufacturers can also maintain capacity utilization at about 80%, which is also a good result.
The U.S. chip ban wants to restrict the development of Chinese chips, but it has instead promoted the localization of Chinese chips, and now the most affected by the U.S. chip ban is not Chinese chip manufacturers, but Qualcomm, Samsung and other foreign semiconductor companies.
Nowadays, chip semiconductor companies have begun to choose to bypass the chip ban to ship, for example, after advanced AI chips were subject to export control, Nvidia began to launch a special version of chips for China. However, many chip companies, including NVIDIA, are facing a problem, that is, Chinese customers "don't buy it", after all, we have completed the localization of many chips, why continue to import?
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