After the Spring Festival, the price of corn turned around and rose sharply? Unlikely

Mondo Three rural Updated on 2024-02-12

After the Spring Festival, corn ** turned around and rose sharply? Unlikely

The whole country is heating up, and the drying towers and ** merchants are looking at the weather forecast on their mobile phones - because the biggest threat to corn has arrived in early February, the north and south of our country are in full swing, and many areas have warmed up by more than 10 degrees, and some areas will return to more than 20 degrees! But that momentum will be hit by an even more ferocious cooling blow on February 16, and the secretly happy grain merchants and drying towers may be disappointed again. In addition, the rise and fall of corn during the Spring Festival has too many ambush factors:

Don't underestimate the Heilongjiang region, the so-called grain lying in the ground can't see anything, but don't forget, there are also piles of grain in the Heilongjiang region, and Bin County alone is very large. The most important point is that farmers in the Northeast only look at the corn at their doorstep, but don't forget that corn is grown in many parts of the country, not just in the Northeast. And in a month's time, the number of arrivals to the port has not increased much, the number of ships going to sea has not increased much, and the motor transport to North China has not increased much, so where does the grain go?

Therefore, it is relatively unfair to analyze the market based on changes in corn sales and the ** of basic surplus grains. Only"Tell a story"and market speculation in order to eventually return to the supply and demand side.

2. Northeast China is the main producing area of corn, rice and soybeans"Northeast"The word represents not only the region, but also a climate change – one crop a year, so for Northeast farmers, expect the effect of this season to bring them relatively good returns. Therefore, for farmers in Northeast China, relying on the role of this season can bring them relatively rich returns, which leads to Northeast farmers being very sensitive and concerned about the fluctuations of **. Whether it is social or network information, it is possible to change the rhythm and change of grain sales. This situation appeared in the main period when farmers sold grain, which was dominated by farmers, and the spring ploughing season was dominated by drying towers and merchants.

In 2023, there will be two lowest points in the peak corn season in Northeast China, one is the grain nest in the eastern part of Heilongjiang, and the other is the low point before the Spring Festival.

3. The increase in reserves from 2022 will be marketed in 2023"Hype"broken, but many people still go out to speculate, the main reason is that there is a large amount of increased reserves after the Spring Festival, which is the fact of market behavior, the task was completed before the year, and the reserves will inevitably increase after the year, but the increase in reserves is only in the market food source, and has nothing to do with **. Not directly related to **.

In our minds, it can be put"Increase the number of bookings"It is OK to see that there is one more large dealer in the market, there is no need to exaggerate, and there is no need to applaud, because don't forget, they are in the process of increasing the number of bookings on the one hand, and on the other hand, they are also in the process of auctioning. On the last day before the Spring Festival, it was still at the auction, didn't you see it?

At the same time, to increase the storage of this part of the grain, high requirements, strict standards, if there is no qualified grain source in the storage area, will improve their own purchase to complete their own storage tasks, and this ** is likely to be higher than the normal of the entire market, it is difficult to become the support point of the corn market?

4. The drying tower and the first merchant are in the market this year"Guts"The smallest acquisition entity, regardless of the base years ago"Rob"How lively and cheerful, but basically not as large as until three years ago, its mood changes will lead to an accelerated pace of acquisitions and realizations, and at the same time subject to the acquisition of ports and deep processing** changes are very volatile.

If the purchase price of deep processing is **, your desire to buy will be stronger, but whether deep processing can continue to be stable ** is one of the largest"Blind spots"The main reason is that the speed of * is not as fast as ***, as long as you see the car supply at the door of the company! You can roughly judge the rise and fall of **.

The staple grain merchants of the Spring Festival, before purchasing a large number of tide grains, found that the tide grain has not dried up, why? They just have to wait for the temperature to rise during the Spring Festival"Rush"A wave of bargains, but how cheap can it be? -Silver. Therefore, their main consideration is to cash out or dry up these tide grains in their hands, which is not a bad thing, and these grain merchants should take the opportunity to carry out the grain payment, rather than continue"Rob"Harvest grain.

Is it hard to believe that corn **won't**? Of course. As long as the mood is up, as long as all the negative information is turned into positive information, people will immediately make a 180-degree turn, no matter what the market demand, no matter what the basic surplus food is, no matter whether the channel has inventory - should it go up? Why? Sentiment.

Drying towers and basic merchants need to be raised - because they have food in their hands and need to cash in!

Farmers need to raise prices - after surviving the autumn, winter and Spring Festival, the only way for corn to meet psychological expectations is to raise prices!

This price increase is like the weather change in the next month, hot and cold, I like it cold! But it still can't stop the pace of spring! Because spring has come! How many more days can it go up? I don't know!

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