Lithium mine in the Atacama Desert, Chile, **Visual China).
In the last days of January, with the development of Tianqi Lithium (002466SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460SZ) and other lithium mining stocks have successively disclosed performance forecasts for sharp declines, and the bleak picture of the industry caused by the continuous collapse of lithium prices in 2023 has become apparent.
The data shows that the net profit of 13 listed companies that have been "submitted" in advance will decline by more than 47% year-on-year in 2023, and even Jiangte Motor (002176SZ) and Jixiang shares (603399SH) and 4 other companies recorded losses.
We have noticed that although lithium prices have bottomed out in stages and the performance of lithium salt companies has declined, a number of brokerage research reports have recently strongly recommended the layout of lithium mining stocks. And as a pre-cyclical public offering, in terms of the shareholding data disclosed in the quarterly report, the number of shares held in lithium stocks has changed positively, not only in the fourth quarter of last year, but also in the fourth quarter of last year, and 7 ** have been increased, to a certain extent, or reflect that the investment layout of the new round of business cycle has begun.
According to wind data, as of now, 13 of the 19 lithium mining stocks have disclosed performance forecasts, and the performance of all employees will decline in 2023, with almost all of them declining by more than 50%, and even 4 companies have lost money.
Specifically, Koda Manufacturing (600499SH) and Salt Lake (000792SZ) is the two companies with the smallest decline, and the former is expected to have a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 21 in 20235 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 4942%；The latter is expected to have a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.6 billion yuan to 8.1 billion yuan, with a change range of -5117%~-47.96%。
The decline of the remaining 9 lithium listed companies is all 70% or more, and even the performance of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, the "lithium king", has also suffered a "double kill", and the former is expected to have a net profit of 66 net profit attributable to the parent company in 20232 billion yuan - 895 billion yuan, down 62 percent year-on-year9% to 7256%；The latter made a profit of 4.2 billion yuan to 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6976% to 7952%。
As for the reasons for the decline in performance, 11 companies with lithium salt business all mentioned the decline in lithium prices, and many companies said that they had made provisions for the decline in the price of inventory assets.
Ganfeng Lithium said, "During the reporting period, affected by the cyclical impact of the lithium industry, the growth rate of terminal demand slowed down, lithium salt products fell sharply, and the decline in lithium ore raw materials was smaller than the decline in lithium salts and downstream products, resulting in a decline in the company's gross profit margin; In addition, the company made an asset impairment provision for related assets in accordance with accounting standards, so the company's performance decreased significantly year-on-year. ”
In fact, due to the rapid growth of lithium prices close to 600,000 tons at the end of 2022, the performance of most lithium salt companies has declined in the third quarter of last year. By the fourth quarter, lithium carbonate** fell below 100,000 yuan, gradually breaking through the cost line of many enterprises, resulting in a further expansion of the decline in annual performance in 2023.
It should be noted that at the beginning of the new year, lithium carbonate ** is still grinding around 100,000 tons. According to Shanghai Ganglian data, on February 1, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 9750,000 tons.
Looking forward to 2024, the performance of lithium mining companies will also depend on the trend of lithium prices this year. Titanium **app's previous article "Overseas ** end disturbance increases, can lithium prices be supported?" At present, overseas disturbances are not enough to change the loose supply and demand of the lithium market in 2024, and the core actually depends on downstream demand. The downstream market is still not optimistic.
Although the overall lithium price in 2024 is not optimistic, the industry generally believes that the current lithium price is close to the bottom. Recently, many brokerages have frequently recommended the lithium salt sector or the lithium sector, believing that the A-share lithium sector has reached a long-term better left-hand allocation stage.
Everbright's research report pointed out that the main supply increase in 2024 will still come from South American salt lakes and Australian mines, which will contribute a total of 45% of the increase8%；In addition, African mines and domestic resources each contributed 24 percent of the increase2% and 14%. It is expected that the lithium industry may turn to surplus after 2024, to 125 in 202490,000 tons of demand and 140The supply of 10,000 tons is calculated, and the demand accounts for about 90% of the supply, which corresponds to the bottom of the lithium price may be at the nearly 90% quantile of the cost curve, about 7560,000 tons. And the current lithium price is 9750,000 tons, already close to the bottom.
Yinhe** also said that the worst expected moment for the lithium sector in the A** field has passed. Previously, when the domestic lithium carbonate ** fell to 80,000 tons, the A-share lithium mine share price responded with **, which may indicate that the market believes that the lithium price has touched the long-term bottom, the uncertainty and risk of the performance of lithium ore stocks have been eliminated, and the bottom of the lithium mine plate has been proven.
It is worth mentioning that the investment layout of institutions in cyclical industries tends to precede the cycle, and the previous titanium article "Lithium Salt Third Quarterly Report: Collective "Decline" in Performance, "Team Retreat Industry Wind Vane" has been mentioned in the article, and the change in shareholding has a certain reference significance for observing the cycle rotation of the lithium industry.
Looking back, in 2020Q4, when the price of lithium began, it had already begun to act, and the action of building and increasing positions was obvious, and the holdings of 19 lithium mining companies were directly from 3 at the end of Q31.5 billion shares increased to 95 billion shares. But at that time, the price of lithium actually rose limitedly, and at the end of 2020, lithium carbonate** was just over 50,000 tons.
Since then, the number of shares held by ** has basically maintained a trend of decreasing for one quarter and increasing for one quarter, but the overall number of shares held has been upward. By the end of 2022Q2, lithium resource anxiety is in full swing, and the number of shares held is as high as 239 billion shares. Subsequently, the shareholding logic was differentiated, and some believed that lithium salt was unsustainable and there was a **behavior, and the number of shares held by the end of 2022Q3 dropped to 136.5 billion shares. In November of the same year, lithium prices peaked, followed by a rapid decline.
In 2023Q1, ** once joined hands in the big withdrawal, and the number of shares held dropped to 81.2 billion shares, but with the price of lithium, the position increased again, increasing to 14 at the end of Q22.5 billion shares; Q3** took a sharp turn again, and ** evacuated one after another. As of the end of Q3 last year, the total number of listed companies holding lithium mines was 54.2 billion shares, up from 14 at the end of Q22.5 billion shares decreased by 62% month-on-month, and this number of shares is a new low since 2020Q4, and fell back to the level before the start of the lithium price boom cycle.
However, according to the fourth quarter report of last year, ** shareholding has begun to show more positive changes.
According to wind data statistics, as of the end of 2023Q4, the total number of shares held in the lithium sector is 53.5 billion shares, basically the same as 54.2 billion shares were flat, indicating that the strength of ** in Q4 ** was greatly reduced; And 7 of the 19 lithium mining stocks ** increased the number of shares.
For example, at the end of 2023Q4, ** held Western Mining (601168sh）8062.360,000 shares, 5,500 at the end of Q3950,000 shares, an increase of 2,561410,000 shares; At the end of last year, ** held Tianqi Lithium 10893090,000 shares, at the end of Q3 10223500,000 shares on the basis of 669590,000 shares; At the end of last year, it held 3211210,000 shares, at the end of Q3 1856730,000 shares, an increase of 1,354480,000 shares.
The company found that the logic of selling to buying also confirms the logic of industrial development to a certain extent. Tianqi Lithium, Sinomine Resources, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. and other lithium mines with high self-sufficiency rate, outstanding cost advantages and integrated operation have become the first choice for increasing holdings; Ganfeng Lithium, Rongjie shares and other companies with low self-sufficiency rates are more; Even, pure "concept stocks" such as Everest, Chengtou, and Jinyuan have been cleared or have never been able to enter the eyes of the law. (This article was first published in Titanium** app, written by Su Qitao).