The release of non-farm payrolls data on Friday night significantly exceeded market expectations, prompting the gold price to quickly retreat by nearly $30 and pierce the $2,030 ounce mark. Some economists are not as good as the inflation data on the non-farm payrolls data, and the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts are not as good as the inflation data. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, a strong labor market will not prevent them from cutting interest rates, and the central bank's core is mainly concerned about inflation slowing down on the policy track, and pointed out that the timing and speed of easing will only be affected when employment loses momentum. The U.S. dollar index rose nearly 81 basis points last week due to the impact of the non-farm payrolls index, and the market remained high to continue the trend of the U.S. dollar**. and sharply suppressed the previous market bets on the central bank in March may be under pressure.
After the release of a number of economic data on Friday, the market reacted enthusiastically, and some institutional analysts pointed out that the labor market data in the United States in January was very strong, and it is believed that this data can completely dispel the market's thoughts about the Fed's interest rate cut in March. At the same time, the annual rate of wages also rose to 4 in January5%, the current data reflects that the US economy remains strong, and the market should remain cautious and patient about cutting interest rates. The market has now lowered its expectations for the number of rate cuts this year, but still expects the possibility of about five rate cuts this year, or adjust the pace of rate cuts.
US economic data is now expected to be at the same level until mid-year to begin a 25bp easing cycle of rate cuts, barring substantial weakness in economic activity. According to the Fed's latest** indication, a 25 basis point rate cut is expected at every other meeting. It remains to look at the direction of the data.