North Korea recently conducted a large-scale military exercise near the northern limit in the western part of the peninsula, firing more than 200 shells in a row in the direction of South Korea, triggering various speculations and evaluations from the outside world. Many believe that North Korea's move actually helped ease the strategic pressure it faces, rather than an actual attack on South Korea. Although some netizens speculated that North Korea might launch an attack on South Korea, and that South Korea was deliberately playing up the imminent attack, in fact, the artillery shells allegedly did not fall into the waters south of the northern limit during the exercise. There are different views on this incident. There is an opinion that the military exercise is a fierce response by the DPRK to the growing military and security threat from the United States.
Observers note that the shelling was also a-for-tat military operation after the U.S.-South Korean coalition conducted a joint firepower exercise near the demilitarized zone on the peninsula on January 2, which North Korea saw as a serious provocation. Others argue that the bombardment, despite its modest scale, marked a substantial change in North Korea's strategic positioning toward South Korea. At the recent Eighth and Ninth Plenary Sessions of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), the DPRK leader made a shocking reorientation of relations between the DPRK and the ROK, pointing out that the DPRK and the ROK are no longer homogeneous but hostile. This reorientation essentially rejects South Korea as a concrete administrative and sovereign state, and instead sees South Korea as a puppet of the United States. This changed strategic orientation can be seen as a serious declaration of war.
Others hold that China and the DPRK have a treaty of mutual assistance and friendship, so China wants to ensure the security of the DPRK, which makes the DPRK a bullying to a certain extent and takes the initiative to show a tough posture to the United States and South Korea, which may make the situation on the Korean Peninsula more dangerous. There is some truth to these views, and North Korea has been quite sharp and decisive in the current international situation. North Korea's recent tough, even somewhat drastic, escalation of the semi-missile crisis underscores its own importance, while also increasing its leverage in the U.S.-South Korea game and in the great power game, and may even attract further attention and recognition from the United States. The treaty does protect North Korea, but it also imposes constraints on North Korea.
Whatever the reasons for North Korea's current hardline approach, the issue is actually quite delicate because it does give the United States and South Korea some reason, and the United States is well aware of it. The United States has tried to provoke conflict everywhere, whether it is in the South China Sea or on the Korean Peninsula, but it has adopted the same strategy. In fact, North Korea taking a tough stance against the United States and South Korea can objectively ease Russia's strategic pressure. There are many who believe that it is in our interest for North Korea to take a tough stance against the United States and South Korea, because if North Korea acts, it will cause trouble for the United States. However, there is no evidence that there has been any agreement between Russia and North Korea, but it is true that the influence of the Russian factor on the Korean Peninsula is growing. From a strategic point of view, North Korea's tough stance toward the United States and South Korea can objectively ease Russia's strategic pressure.
Although it may seem advantageous on the surface, our strategic focus is not on Northeast Asia, nor on the Korean Peninsula, and chaos at our doorstep is absolutely not in our favor. If there is a conflict between the DPRK and the United States, we will have to mobilize the Korean Peninsula, and the initiative will not be in the hands of the DPRK. We do not want North Korea to take its current actions. There is a shadow of Russia behind this shift in North Korea, a trend that has both advantages and disadvantages as Russia's influence in Northeast Asia grows.