Author |Wang Hanyu.
Edit |Pan Xinyi.
After a lapse of 34 years, Japan** has regained its historical high at the peak of the bubble.
On the morning of February 22, the Nikkei 225 index stood above 39,000 points, officially surpassing the all-time high of 38,915 set before the bursting of Japan's economic bubble in December 198987 points. As of the end of the day**, the Nikkei remained at 39,09868 points, since the beginning of the year has been **1684%。
Source: wind
Previously in 2023 Nikkei 225 Index **2824%, the largest increase since 1989.
Foreign media Nikkei Asia commented,The performance of Japanese stocks may mean that the Japanese economy has come out of the "lost decades".
Recall that after the bursting of the economic bubble in the early 1990s, Japan's economy stagnated for a long time and fell into a "lost 30 years", and Japan became the world's most unpopular asset for a time. Looking at the present, world capital is pouring into Japan again to chase the rise.
In the face of this shift,According to the industry, it is mainly related to the aggressive reform of Japanese listed companies, efforts to increase shareholder returns, and the continued weakness of the yen. With the continuous release of Japan's economic vitality, the continuous inflow of international safe-haven funds and the reform of the Tokyo Exchange are expected to support Japan's long-term prosperity.
The day before yesterday (February 21), the American semiconductor giant Nvidia announced its financial report for November 2023 to January 2024, and the performance significantly exceeded market expectations - operating income increased by 265% year-on-year to $22.1 billion, and net profit increased by 769% year-on-year to $12.3 billion.
Affected by this, in the after-hours trading of U.S. stocks on the same day, Nvidia **sharply**. Yesterday, Japan** also appeared in semiconductor-related **center**, with semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest leading the gains**.
In fact, since the beginning of the year, tokyo electron, SoftBank Group and other semiconductors and artificial intelligence-related ** have continued to drive Japan***
At the same time, data from the Tokyo** Exchange showed that in January this year, the net value of international investors in Japan reached 207 trillion yen,This is about 4 times higher than the same period last year
Combined with the proportion of overseas investors in the trading volume of Japanese stocks, about 60%.Foreign capital has always played a major role。And looking back on this round of Japan, it is obvious that it also began after Warren Buffett's visit to Japan in April 2023.
At that time, Warren Buffett said in an interview in Japan that he had increased his shareholding in Japan's five major trading companies to 74%, plans to hold for 10-20 years, and intends to further increase investment in Japan**.
Following in the footsteps of the "God of Stocks", a number of foreign-funded institutions have "stood up" in Japan. The relevant persons in charge of Blackstone and KKR have visited Japan one after another; Hedging**Citadel reopens Tokyo office; LVMH's private equity **l Catterton said it will expand its portfolio in Japan; A number of asset managers, including BlackRock and Schroders, have also upgraded their investment ratings on Japan**.
In the explanations made by Warren Buffett himself and a number of asset management companies for his investment analysisBoth mentioned the positive impact of the governance reform of listed companies in Japan
In March last year, the Tokyo ** Stock Exchange issued an announcement to accelerate the improvement of Japan's ** valuation from the institutional level, and urged listed companies with a price-to-book ratio of less than 1 to improve the situation as soon as possible through ** repurchases, adjusting corporate strategies, and improving ROE.
The initiative also mentions that if a business fails to operate as required, it will be saidIt will be considered as "inefficient use of its capital" and could be at risk of delisting as early as 2026
In this context, Japanese listed companies have increased the scale of repurchases, and the total amount of repurchases will reach about 96 trillion yen, a new high for the second year in a row; At the same time, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun**, the total dividends of listed companies in Japan in fiscal 2023 will also reach a record 16 trillion yen.
Song Qinghui, a well-known economist, told 36Kr that the active reform of Japanese listed companies and efforts to increase shareholder returns have enhanced the attractiveness of Japan's largest market. In addition, it believes that Japan's record high is also related to the uncertainties of international geopolitics, which has led to a large part of the capital flowing to the Japanese market.
However, there are also views that this round of Japan's ** surge belongs to a certain extent to "superficial prosperity".
An asset management institution analyzed 36 Krypton, on the one hand, the interest rate differential caused by the depreciation of the yen has made Japan** cheaper in the eyes of foreign investors, which has enhanced the investment enthusiasm of overseas investors; On the other hand, Japan's continued price level and CPI have further driven the stock prices of Japanese companies.
According to the survey results released by the Imperial Database of Japan, in 2023, Japan has a total of 3The price of 240,000 food items has increased, compared to nearly 2570,000 kinds of products have been greatly expanded. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee todayPrices in Japan will continue to be in the future**
At the same time, Japan's average core CPI in 2023 after removing fresh food is **3 year-on-year1%, a new high in nearly 41 years.
As a result, the Japanese people's incomes have actually fallen. A labor statistics survey in Japan for November 2023 showedReal wages, which reflect price changes, in Japan decreased by 3% from November 2022
The decline in the real feeling of household income led to weak domestic demand, which was reflected at the macro level, and Japan's real GDP fell by 0.0 quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of last year1%, which translates to a decrease of 04%, two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
However, the recent salary increase announcements of many large Japanese companies seem to have brought positive signals againAt present, Japanese companies including Honda Motor, Aeon Retail, Mazda Motor, Matsuya Foods, etc., have reached an agreement to raise salaries. Among them, Matsuya Foods 10The 9% salary increase was its largest since 2001.
D**id Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco in Singapore, said he was not worried about the current weakness in the Japanese economy and believed that consumption could pick up soon, driven by faster nominal wage growth and slowing CPI inflation.
At the same time, foreign investors' expectations for Japan have also been further raised.
Ryota Sakagami, Citigroup's chief strategist in Japan, previously said the Nikkei index would reach 39,000 points by the end of this year. And now its latest** has risen to 45,000 points
Nomura's chief strategist, Yunosuke Ikeda, raised his year-end forecast for the Nikkei from 38,000 to 40,000. And given that the Bank of Japan has made it clear that it will not seek to raise interest rates quicklyIt believes that by the end of the year, the Nikkei may even reach 43,000 points
Song Qinghui also said that the continuous inflow of international safe-haven funds and a series of drastic reforms of the Tokyo ** Stock Exchange are expected to support the long-term prosperity of Japanese stocks in this round, and then start a new round of bull market.
Stay tuned for more information.