For a long time, doomsday preparers and *** creators have been thinking about this question. But how likely is this?
Let's sketch this great country in three ways:
First of all, the country has a population of more than 33.3 billion. These citizens privately own about or at least 33.9 billion guns. They are unique in that there is no country in the world where the number of private guns exceeds the number of people. Yemen, for example, is a country with a martial culture that has endured years of civil war but has only about 53 guns per 100 inhabitants.
Second, polarization is unusually severe: as of 2020, political scientists at one of the most prestigious universities in the United States have found out,"Over the past 40 years, political polarization in the United States has increased rapidly, more so than in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, or Germany"。And that's the result: America is special, but not good. A 2022 article published by the Carnegie Council for International Peace states:"None of the rich, consolidated democracies of East Asia, Oceania, or Western Europe have faced a similar degree of polarization for such a long time"。
Last year, another Carnegie article found that while some of people's polarized perceptions of specific policy issues, such as gun control or abortion, were exaggerated, they were themselves detrimental to national cohesion. Because"The people who are most involved in civil and political life hold the most inaccurate or highly negative views about the beliefs of the other side"and, moreover, political scientists call it"Emotional polarization"The degree is very high. To put it simply, all or many citizens have a large stockpile of guns, and more than 40% of households have ** of one kind or another, and they do not like or even respect the political spectrum"The other party", not liked at all, moreover, disliked the others more and more.
Thirdly, the country also exhibits a distinct cultural preoccupation, in fact, almost obsession, that is not just the concept of civil war itself, nor is it just the specific history of the very bloody civil war in the country in the nineteenth century. On the contrary, the country's elite and ordinary people are obsessed with the coming civil war, with a whopping 43% as of 2022 believing that it could occur within the next decade. This assumption has always featured prominently in debates, high books, articles, and popular culture.
Of course, we are talking about the United States of America. While it's easy to come up with more criteria and data points, it's no longer necessary. Suffice it to say that it is short-sighted to scoff at the risk of a second civil war in the United States for two reasons: Civil war is not just a fantasy, and it is why it is currently resonating across the country"Hype", and imagining a free, apocalyptic, chaotic future where every man and woman is excited about themselves (and in the U.S., I think all the other genders willing to participate).
Smart Americans are also aware of this. For example, Barbara F. Walter was a well-known political scientist who worked extensively with the U.S. Intelligence Agency (CIA) to build a model of a civil war, certainly for any country other than the United States. She now warns that the model is beginning to fit the United States itself well, disturbing. She may have her centrist biases, including the usual pairs"Russian influence"However, her core point is correct: the United States is turning into a democracy, which is essentially a regime pretending to be democratic. In fact, it's always been that way, at least that's what I think. Moreover, a significant number of people feel threatened by the loss of their previous social status and sense of superiority. These phenomena happen to be closely linked to the risk of civil war.
Let's also not forget that the United States is proving every day its enormous global destructive capabilities, even if there is no civil war at home. While some observers may, even happily, hope that the Americans will have to let the rest of us go in the end, fighting each other, this is a very dangerous bet. American elites are narcissistically obsessed with the globe"Primacy"with"Indispensable"With about 800 bases around the world, thousands of nuclear warheads, and a bad habit of blaming others for their failures, a new American Civil War will not rule out foreign aggression. Moreover, despite its decline, the United States is still an important part of the global economy, more so than it was in 1860, when America's first civil war had already had a severe impact on the rest of the world.
In conclusion, American Civil War 20 may appeal to soothsayers with camouflage baseball caps, beards, and pump guns, but don't be fooled by it: American Civil War 20 is a serious question. So, what's going on with it? How likely is it to reasonably guess and what form it will take if it happens?
Moving from the latter question, perhaps the first thing to note is that a large civil war can start with a small, local war. This, by the way, is the real meaning of the recent open tensions between Texas and Washington Federal** over immigration and border control issues. Both sides did use their armed forces and made many ominous statements, but fortunately, neither side fired a shot. However, those who rashly dismiss this incident as a mere political drama are mistaken. Because, as the New York Times points out, it's not just Texas that is rebelling against the United States. On the contrary,"Many Republican state leaders have openly voiced defiance that echoes the armed conflict"。
In fact, the second point to note is that a new civil war is likely to start with ** due to the federal structure of the United States. In the dispute between Washington and Texas, 25 Republican governors openly sided with the rebellious Texas. This is a good illustration of how a local hotspot can quickly involve the rest of the country by creating the ultimate polarization and logic. This logic has not yet fully unfolded. However, its outline is already clearly visible.
It is worth noting that many about the Civil War 20's narratives all express the same point: whether it's the cult comic book series DMZ, or the spicy satire of American War. The obvious joke is that it makes some Americans treat other Americans the way Americans and Israelis treat Palestinians, Iraqis or Syrians today. Whether it's the small-budget but clever film "Bushwick" or the big-budget film "Civil War" that is about to be released in American theaters: the basic premise of these films is that separatism escalates into a large-scale civil war.
Third, while a large number of private guns will certainly play a huge role in a new civil war, it would be a mistake to think that such a fight would only pit civilian gangs organized into militias against the official police and army. In fact, the dynamics of separation, once set in, lead to multifaceted actions for the United States"siloviki"Some of them choose to be loyal to themselves,** and start fighting each other. If you believe that, in this case, the official chain of command that finally connected them all back to Washington will remain intact, then I have a whole and indivisible Yugoslavia to sell you.
Last but not least, in this case, the war will be severe and long. In this respect, it will resemble the First Civil War. However, due to the advancement of technology and the reduction of inhibitors, the destructiveness and cruelty of war may be even greater. In Netflix's recently successful "Leave the World Behind," the protagonists never know exactly who is blowing up their country, but by the end of the film, two things seem to be quite clear: no, it's not an enemy from the outside, it's an internal operation, and it's a nuclear bomb. By the way, this is also the premise of the TV series "Jericho", which was unsuccessful earlier, but is now very popular.
How likely is such a dark future? Obviously, we don't know. But we should pay attention to two points: we can see a priori that in the United States no one is interested in thinking about this issue. However, we see the opposite. If you think that doesn't mean anything, then okay. Just don't mistake your guess for a good policy or planning basis.
Of course, there are other options besides civil war. One is to peacefully eliminate polarization under the current ** conditions, assuming that this happens. The other is comprehensive: one of the ways to suppress the possibility of civil war is to implement it.
However, herein lies the problem: a country can both have a civil war and practice**. Just ask the ancient Romans. What would happen to the Romans, the Romans in the minds of the founders of the American Republic?
RT, February 5, 2024, Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russian Global Affairs.
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