The three major indexes of U.S. stocks were mixed yesterday, and before the release of CPI data this week, investors were assessing the timing and scale of interest rate cuts in 2024, and the market fluctuated in a narrow range throughout the day, with the Dow falling 042%, the Nasdaq rose 009% barely closed three consecutive positives, and the S&P 500 fell 015%。
Popular tech stocks were mixed, with Nvidia closing up 17% at 531$4, the fourth consecutive trading day**, and the second consecutive day of the all-time high, the market capitalization was 131 trillion US dollars, AMD rose more than 2%, Google, Amazon rose more than 1%, and Tesla fell more than 2%.
Today (January 10, 2024), the S&P 500 ETF (513500) is in the red, with a significant premium of 115%, the turnover exceeded 25 million yuan in less than half an hour after opening, and the latest scale exceeded 9.3 billion yuan, according to wind data, the S&P 500 ETF (513500) has been more than 8 in the past 3 days600 million yuan of capital layout.
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) rose 007%, the intraday premium is significant, and the premium rate is 070%, active trading, the latest scale of more than 4600 million yuan.
First Shanghai Finance said that we believe that with the Fed cutting interest rates and slowing economic growth, long-term interest rates are expected to continue in 2024, returning to 3-35% range. In addition, the neutral interest rate is unlikely to rise, the baby boomer is starting to retire en masse, consumption and production will shrink simultaneously, and in the short term, the degree of productivity improvement by AI will not be enough to offset the impact of demographic change. We believe that the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in the second half of next year, although it is not ruled out that it will cut interest rates early under the pressure of **, and the policy rate will most likely return to below 4% by the end of the year.
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