A total of eight movies will be released in the upcoming Spring Festival, and the competition is quite fierce. At present, the pre-sale of eight films has been opened for many days, and as of press time, the pre-sale box office on the first day of the Lunar New Year is close to 2200 million, "Flying Life 2" ranked first by a narrow margin, and "Hot and Hot", which had been firmly in the first place in pre-sales, ranked second, followed by "Article 20", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Mr. Red Carpet", "Let's Shake the Sun Together", "Bajie: The Nether of the Canopy" and "Huang Pi: Lucky Cat from the Sky".
There is a large gap between the pre-sale box office of the eight movies, "Flying Life 2" currently has a pre-sale box office of more than 56 million, while "Mr. Red Carpet" is only more than 15 million, and the animated film "Huang Pi: God of Wealth Cat" at the bottom of the pre-sale is only 130 thousand.
The main audience of the three animated films is children, and the topics and attention are mainly on the five live-action films. "Flying Life 2", which can solve the mystery of Zhang Chi's death, and "Hot and Hot", which Jia Ling lost 100 pounds for the role, seem to be the seed players of the Spring Festival box office champion from the pre-sale results. Compared with the two, "Hot and Hot" also has an advantage, that is, Jia Ling herself is a big IP and has a good audience base, and the last "Hello, Li Huanying" got 54The ultra-high box office of 1.3 billion, the total number of moviegoers is 1200 million, if the audience who has watched this movie comes to support "Hot and Hot", then Jia Ling will win.
However, an important indicator for judging the box office trend of movies, in addition to the box office and the proportion of scheduled films, there is also an important indicator that is the attendance rate.
There are many people watching movies during the Spring Festival, and the venue is almost full, so any movie that grabs the schedule is equivalent to grabbing money, so there was a turmoil a few days ago, and the major distributors sent notices to the theater threatening to give a certain percentage of the film, otherwise they would not give the key. The higher the pre-sale ticket office, the more popular it is with the audience, and the proportion of the film schedule will increase, after all, for the theater, which is almost the same, what they pursue is to maximize profits.
The selling point of the movie and the cast lineup have determined that "Hot and Hot" and "Flying Life 2" have always been in the leading position since the pre-sale began, and even "Hot and Hot" once led the way. As of press time, "Hot and Hot" still ranks first in the proportion of films, 0 ahead of "Flying Life 2".2 percentage points, but in terms of pre-sale box office, "Flying Life 2" is leading by a narrow margin.
The problem lies in the attendance rate, an important metric.
Normally, the attendance rate will be relatively low if the proportion of scheduled films is high, but it must be a paradox to say that it is inversely proportional, after all, the theater is added because there are too many people watching and the tickets are not enough to sell. But "Hot and Hot" is a bit strained in terms of attendance.
Looking at the five live-action movies, the attendance rate of "Hot and Hot" is only 87%, ranking at the bottom. The attendance rate of "Flying Life 2", which is basically the same as the proportion of scheduled films, is 92%, accounting for 195% of Article 20 attendance132%。During the Spring Festival, the average audience will put animated films at the back of the viewing plan, but even the attendance rate of "Bear Infested" is 113%。
Some people may think that there are too many pre-sale films for "Hot and Hot", and it is normal for the attendance rate to be low. Let's not go far, just look at last year's Spring Festival, "Man Jianghong" has been firmly in the first place at the box office since the first day of release, accounting for 28% of the films, but the attendance rate is also the first, reaching 47%. and "The Wandering Earth 2", which ranked second, accounted for 26 films9%, and the attendance rate is also close to 40%. So if it is really a much-anticipated movie, the high proportion of scheduled films will not affect the attendance rate too much.
The core reason is that the audience has little confidence in the movie.
"Hot and Hot" has not seen any movies so far, and the quality of the movie cannot be judged by the trailer alone. Quality aside, there are three points in this movie that will make audiences who plan to watch the movie during the Spring Festival "undecided" and do not buy tickets in the first place.
First, the continuous remakes have overdrawn the audience's confidence.
Probably starting from Zhang Yimou's "Three-Gun Shooting Surprise", Chinese films have launched a remake boom, and there are certainly successful cases in the remake camp, such as "This Killer is Not Calm" and "Manslaughter", but it is more of a rollover case, the remake of "Blood Labyrinth" and "Three-Gun Shooting Surprise" almost made Zhang Yimou lose his night, and the audience did not eat the set of "Manslaughter 2", and the score did not pass the passing line. And last year's "Super Family" is a negative teaching material for remakes, and the quality is so bad that there is no bottom line, which completely angered the audience and overdrew the audience's confidence in the remake.
The core reason for the success of "Hello, Li Huanying" is that Jia Ling put her real experience and mother image on the screen, which is sincere and moving, but "Hot and Hot" is adapted from "100 Yuan Love", and the remake alone is a lot weaker.
Second, the original work is difficult to surpass, and Jia Ling lacks confidence in the audience.
"100 Yuan Love" is a movie 10 years ago, directed by Wu Zhengqing and starring Sakura Ando. These two people are very powerful, Wu Zhengqing's proud work in addition to this one, there is also the TV series "Naked Director", Ando Sakura's "Quartet", "Lonely Gourmet" and "Restart Life" are all masterpieces, and last year's "Monster" also attracted a lot of attention.
100 Yuan Love" She plays Kazuko Saito, who is languishing and rotten all day long, who ran away from home because of a conflict with her sister and worked in a convenience store.
The first half of the movie is a bit like "The Life of the Disgusted Matsuko", Kazuko Saito was violated by a lewd colleague, abandoned by a man who was gentle overnight, and looked down ......on by his familyShe dealt a blow to the unfortunate life and the cold world.
Affected by the social context, "Hot and Hot" cannot be as sincere, simple and bold as "100 Yuan Love", and for the Spring Festival file, Jia Ling will definitely have more commercial considerations, and the implantation of comedy elements also makes people feel drummed. Zhuyu is in front, is "Hot and Hot" really good?
Third, compared with the previous work, "Hot and Hot" lacks a backbone.
On the surface, in the ring of the Spring Festival file, "Hot and Hot" is relatively capable of playing, in addition to Jia Ling, Lei Jiayin, Zhang Xiaofei, followed by Yang Zi, Sha Yi, Qiao Shan, Li Xueqin, Ma Li ......
However, the audience has long been immune to a long list of guest stars, and what they value more is the starring lineup, compared with "Hello, Li Huanying", the biggest regret of "Hot and Hot" is the lack of Shen Teng, the audience always likes to use "content" to consider the laughing fruit of the movie, without Shen Teng, how to ensure the comedy component of "Hot and Hot"?
Of course, the eight movies that rushed into the Spring Festival file are all worthy of support and encouragement, they are the retrograde of the movie winter, bringing laughter and laughter to the Spring Festival, and deserving the support of the audience with movie tickets. It's just that from various dimensions, there are more uncertainties at the box office of "Hot and Hot", so let's see if any of them will become a dark horse.
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