Population is not only a matter of security, but also about the sustainable development of the economy, in the face of an imminent severe aging society, only the population, and only the newborn population, can determine the future of an economy.
At present, the number of newborns this year has reached a point that cannot be ignored.
Although the Bureau of Statistics will not release the 2023 population data until January 17, 2024, some institutions have speculated that the number of newborns born this year will only be 7.88 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.68 million, and fell below the 8 million mark for the first time.
From the number of newborns falling below 10 million to below 8 million, it took only two years for the population to fall from 10.62 million in 2021 to 956 in 2022, and then to 7.88 million this year.
Although the data of the Bureau of Statistics has not yet been released, this ** and the actual data should probably not be too different, which also shows that China's newborn birth rate has reached a very severe point, if you do not intervene to stimulate fertility, the long-term loss caused to an economy is probably immeasurable.
This is not a joke, because according to today's population birth numbers, it is easy for us to use a mathematical model to ** China's demographic changes in the next ten or twenty years, and this change will eventually be reflected in the economy, for individuals, employment will be more difficult, income will be slower.
More importantly, in terms of per capita GDP, we are only about one-third of that of Japan in the same period in 1994, but now our aging level is among the highest in the world, and it is self-evident what kind of predicament an economy will face before getting rich.
At this moment, if you don't take action to stimulate fertility, I'm afraid it's really too late.
According to preliminary statistics, the number of newborns in China in 2023 will only be 7.88 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.68 million, and the number of deaths will be 11 million, a decrease of 3.12 million in population, which is already equivalent to the disappearance of a city with a medium population.
In 2022, there will be 9.56 million newborns and 10.41 million deaths in China, a year-on-year decrease of 850,000.
According to this trend, it is easy to foresee that the future population decline in our country will show a cliff**, and this is only the beginning, not the end.
You know, up to today, the number of newborns in China has reached a historical peak in 2012, and it has been continuous, even after the release of the second child in that year, it has not saved the trend of neonatal decline, and since 2016, the population growth effect brought by the release of the second child has begun to weaken.
Since the new population of 18.83 million in 2016, it has been all the way, and the number of declines has been expanding, from hundreds of thousands to millions a year, and then to more than one million today, and at present, it seems that it is far from the bottom.
It is hard for us to imagine that a large country with a population base of 1.4 billion and 7.88 million newborns is not even the bottom.
Let's assume that the number of births in the future is 7.88 million per year, without considering the birth stimulus cash subsidy, how severe will the population situation in China be in the future?
According to the total population announced by the seventh national census in 2020, China's total population is 144.1 billion people, if we assume that the number of new births per year is only 7.88 million, and the number of deaths is approximated according to the number of deaths in 2020, then we can use mathematical formulas to calculate the total population in the future.
According to this assumption, the total population of China in the next 10, 20 and 50 years will be 14 respectively1.8 billion people, 139.4 billion people, 129.4 billion people.
Note, however, that given the number of deaths due to future ageing, the true figure will only be lower, not less.
What's more, if the number of newborns this year really falls below 8 million, it also means that people's desire to have children has been at an unprecedented level, you know, even during the three-year famine, people even had a very difficult time finding food, but the number of births that year still remained above 10 million.
Theoretically, the lower people's desire to have children, which also means that the higher the cost of stimulating fertility.
In the era of family planning, people wanted to have children, but they couldn't have more children, and at that time, the cost of stimulating fertility was almost zero, because people did not need to stimulate fertility, people would spontaneously have more children, and even fines had to have more children.
But today, just a few decades later, people's fertility intentions can be said to have entered a low point in a few decades with the restrictions of economy, cost, income, marriage, education and other factors, which also means that if you want to stimulate fertility now, the macro cost will only be higher.
This is an economic account, an economic account that has to be calculated.
According to the "Medium- and Long-term Change Trend of Chinese Population**" released by the Chinese Population and Development Research Center, by 2050, China's total population will drop sharply from 1.4 billion to 12900 million people, which seems like an acceptable outcome.
But when it comes to demographics, we can see very clearly how ageing is a serious drag on the macro economy and thus on individual incomes.
By 2050, China's population structure will be seriously aging, of which the population under the age of 60 will be 7800 million people, with 5 people aged 60 and over100 million people, taking into account the support of the elderly and raising children, then we should also exclude the population under the age of 20, then the labor force population aged 20-60 is about 5800 million people.
This 5The 800 million working population needs to be supported at the macro levelFor 100 million elderly people, there are still about 200 million young people under the age of 20 who need to be supported, in other words, 5800 million people need to feed 700 million elderly people and children.
What to raise?
This is a very test of our per capita income level.
This is also why, in today's window of time, it is very appropriate to stimulate fertility, and it is also very necessary, because if fertility is not stimulated, the later the time, China's population structure is facing greater pressure on aging, today's stimulation of fertility, new newborns, can also be 20 years later to make adjustments to the macroeconomic population structure problems to make space and contributions.
Otherwise, by 2050, China's working population will face very large economic pressure to support the elderly and take care of children.
Considering that China's current per capita income is still only one-third of Japan's 1994 period, this means that we are stuck in a demographic dilemma of growing old before getting rich, even if by 2050, China's per capita GDP will double on the basis of today, reaching about 30,000 US dollars per capita, in the face of such a disparity in the population structure, the economic pressure on the labor force population is still very great.
Even if some people say that I choose not to give birth, but under the macro economic adjustment and distribution mechanism, we must also face and bear the pressure and obligation of supporting the elderly, the most obvious of which is actually the social security pension.
Today, regardless of whether a young person has an elderly or child at home, the employer must legally pay a pension for you, and the cost of the pension paid by an individual is actually part of the cost of aging.
Therefore, theoretically, the larger the working population, the less pressure there is on the individual, not to mention the tax regulation mechanism.
Essentially, the macro demographic changes are similar to those faced by individual families, when you have five or six elderly people in your family, of course you want to have as many siblings as possible, because it can help you share the burden of supporting the elderly.
The same is true in the macro demographic structure, if we look at the macro population as one big family, then by 2050, there will be only 5There are 800 million office workers, but they need to feed 700 million elderly people and children, which is very stressful for everyone.
On average, each person needs to feed 12 people.
Considering our per capita income in the future, the economic pressures will be so great that we are not feeling it in our current era.
Therefore, considering the contribution that a person makes to the macroeconomy by participating in the work after birth, it is worth it to spend no matter how much it costs to stimulate people's fertility intentions today, and this economic ledger, no matter how you calculate it, is a good deal, not a loss.
If the income is low, then increase people's income; Housing prices are high, so do more in supply; Education is expensive, so use more subsidies to make public education better; If you don't have time, then ask for more maternity leave and companion leave; The competition is fierce, so make the market cake bigger.
Only in this way will we be able to avoid the pain caused by falling into a demographic crisis.
Because the truth behind it is so simple, easy to understand, and there is no need to even disagree.
People are the most important producers, but also consumers, and demographic changes will directly affect macro economic changes, and individuals rely on the macroeconomy, when the macro economy begins to change, how can individuals stay out of things?
From the perspective of China's future population structure, it is easy for us to realize that when the proportion of aging population structure is getting higher and higher, the burden of our entire society will inevitably become heavier and heavier, and at that time, if our per capita income and even productivity cannot be steadily improved, the future will inevitably fall into the dilemma of aging.
From seeing a doctor to dying alone, as well as taking care of the elderly, these will all translate into major social problems.
Up to today, our school-age population is still relatively healthy, and this period vigorously stimulates people's fertility and eliminates all the factors that prevent people from giving birth, which can better solve the future aging crisis.
If this problem drags on for ten or twenty years, then as the post-90s generation completely loses its fertility, relying solely on the post-00s, due to the shrinking population base, it will be even more powerless to stimulate fertility at that time.
What we must understand is that death is the only fairest mechanism for human beings, and it is precisely because people will grow old and die that people have to look to the future and build this world well, not only for themselves, but also for our old age.
In addition to the openness and freedom of the market, a younger population is also indispensable in order to truly exert the economic activity of a market and raise people's income levels, which is one of the main reasons why we have come to this day in the past.
By now, we should be more aware of how to move forward, rather than having disagreements and hesitations on this matter.