Belated 2023 in review.
Top 10 in 2023:
1. The U.S. is in recession, and China is leading the world in recovery.
2. Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have positive returns for the whole year.
Third, there are inflationary pressures in the country and deflation is ended.
Fourth, the loose monetary policy ended, and interest rates began to rise.
Fifth, real estate sales continued to rise, and housing prices were slightly **.
Sixth, exports continued to grow, and the employment situation improved.
7. Excess returns in the consumer industry.
8. The reversal of the Internet and the pharmaceutical industry.
9. Repatriation of overseas funds.
10. The US dollar weakened, and the RMB continued to strengthen.
Readers can pick their own areas of understanding and feel for themselves, which is really out of the charts!
CICC tells us with facts: the market is unpredictable!
However, we can't afford to spit on the gold!
Because, everyone is too busy to take care of themselves!
At the beginning of 2023, all walks of life are expected to have a strong recovery!
Superimposed on the artificial intelligence revolution brought about by ChatGPT, various large models quickly followed!
The whole people shouted: The scientific and technological revolution is coming!
At that time, I didn't see any reason for the economy to decline this year!
The only discussion is: how strong will the recovery be?How can I take advantage of the opportunity?
After that, the consumer market did usher in a retaliatory **!
It's a pity, beautiful but short-lived!
After May Day, the real economy also began to return to flat!
So, overnight we started being encouraged how to spend, only to be indifferent!
The reason for this is that the unemployment rate of 20% is a fact!
It is a fact that there are better layoffs and lower incomes in all walks of life, so even if the deposit rate is lowered, people still save more, or pay off their loans early!
So much so that the bank was forced to lower the interest rate on the stock of mortgages, in a sense, this is a victory!
It turns out that as long as you vote with your feet, you can also have bargaining chips with big institutions!
It is said that it is easy to go from thrift to luxury, and it is difficult to go from luxury to thrift, and when you spontaneously restrain your desire to consume, this is really difficult!
Young people want to consume but have no wealth, and older people have wealth but no desire!
Consumption recovery is not easy!
The continuous decline in export indicators is also beyond expectations!
The world's factories or manufacturing centers have spread from us to the vast Southeast Asia and South Asia regions, and India and Vietnam are following our strategy back then, and they have tried and tested!
The only bright spot is probably the car!
The car-making forces have gained a firm foothold, the high-end process is unusually fast, and the ABB chill is pressing!
The export volume of new energy vehicles has surged, and it has gone to the world in an all-round way
But just one car is not enough!
A certain rice car has also been released, is it going to enter an era of national car making?
We need some industries and entrepreneurs who are struggling in the corners.
Endure loneliness.
Otherwise, it may be a chicken feather in the future!
Speaking of returning to the exit, the external political situation is chaotic, the trend of decoupling has not eased, the fight is stopped, and the drama and game continue as usual!
That's the price we pay to grow and get stronger!
The era of iron public machinery has passed, and the space for large infrastructure construction is getting smaller and smaller!
Trillions of special bonds have also been issued!More about idling!
On the other hand, private capital investment is currently unrealistic
The past three years have been riddled with debt!
Including large and medium-sized private entrepreneurs, but also including investors who start a business!
If the investment at both ends cannot be pulled, the economic experience will inevitably be bad!
Looking at the troika of consumption, exports, and investment, we should be thankful that there is no systemic risk
Recovery, is structured!Not comprehensive!
You and I have to wait a little longer!
In 2023, the biggest victory is to persist in the big cycle again!
Only if you are present, can you hope for the unexpected beauty!
So, I have reason to believe that 2024 will not be worse than 2023, and here's why:
1. The economic fundamentals are in, and we must believe in the wisdom of establishing first and then breaking!
If you want to run, just when I didn't say it!）
2. There is no difference in expectations, there is a strong recovery in 2023, and there will be no more in 2024
3. Decoupling cannot be avoided, but the interest rate hike of the United States has come to an end, and it is expected that interest rates will begin to be cut in the second half of 24 years, and the financial environment will be looser.
4. We are all stronger!
In 2024, work hard to move bricks, healthy and safe!