Today, the direction of SORA is weak as scheduled, the large model and AIGC software continue to be strong, and the hardware chip CPO is beginning to weaken, and it is expected that the SORA direction will continue to diverge on Wednesday, which will be larger than today (Tuesday);
Before and after the Spring Festival, this wave of indices has been ** for 5 consecutive days, 3 days before the holiday, mainly relying on the power of GJD; 2 days after the holiday, due to the popularity of SORA, more of the market spontaneously **;
Of course, in the two days after the holiday, GJD has not completely let go, but judging from the sharp contraction in the trading volume of major index ETFs, GJD has not been dominant in the past two days.
What is slightly embarrassing is that after the slowdown in the intensity of GJD** in the past two days, the amount of energy began to shrink sharply, the last day before the holiday was 1.02 trillion yuan, 960 billion on Monday, and 790 billion today, compared with the previous day's shrinkage of 230 billion.
This illustrates two things:
1. After GJD basically stopped, the market volume began to shrink sharply.
2. There is no incremental capital entering the market after the holiday;
So, the latter personally thinksNext, in the short term, there will be a relatively large divergence。On the one hand, the release of short-term huge profits, on the other hand, after 5 consecutive days, the index itself has a demand for retraction.
Here are a few reviews of events to help you eliminate the information gap:
1. B-Bitcoin** exceeded $50,000;
The main reason is that in April 2024, the BT coin will begin to "halving".
The BT coin halving, which is part of the inflation mechanism of the B-coin, aims to limit the amount of BT coins and thus affect their value.
Specifically, the rate at which Picoin is issued is determined by the protocol, and a new block is generated approximately every 10 minutes, and each block contains the newly issued BiT coin reward.
B currency halving, refers to:Mining rewardshalved every 4 years; Initially, the genesis block reward for BiT Coin was 50 BTC, and the first halving took place in 2012, halving the reward to 25 BTC. The second halving was in 2016, halving the reward to 125 BTC coins. The third halving was in 2020, halving the reward to 625 coins. In April 2024, the reward will be halved to 3$125.
One of the purposes of the halving of T coins is to control the total number of bitcoins, as the total amount of BTC coins is set at 21 million. This scarcity design is believed to help maintain the value of the BT coin and create a stable digital currency.
By the end of 2023, the number of Bitcoins in circulation is close to 19 million, and the actual total amount mined may be slightly lower than this number due to factors such as loss, burning, or non-transfer. Due to the halving of mining rewards every four years and the gradual increase in mining difficulty, the time for the T Coin network to reach the maximum amount is expected to be around 2140.
Knowing the above, you can understand why it has been **persisting** recently, and it is now at $50,000, and some Wall Street analysts expect the BT coin to break through $60,000 this summer. Corresponding to the A-share side, it is the theme of digital currency and blockchain, and there are no performance (speculation) opportunities. 2. Moldy stocks enter a wide range**: After the Dow Jones and Nasdaq hit and are close to record highs, they may enter a wide range in the short term**, and then pay attention to two macro events: FirstThe Federal Reserve cuts interest rates: The expectation of interest rate cut in May has dropped to less than 70% from 90% at the beginning, but what is certain is that in 2024, the Fed will definitely start cutting interest rates for the first time, and the first interest rate cut is likely to occur: May-October this year; The second isNvidia's Q4 earnings report in the early hours of Thursday morning。It is expected that Nvidia's earnings report will be lower than the original performance guidance given by Nvidia due to restrictions on our sweaters. However, whether Nvidia can continue to soar depends on the next development speed of artificial intelligence, the demand for computing power, and the changes in the competitive landscape of the AI chip industry. After all, every country will accelerate the layout of computing resources, such as: Japan's Softbank Group Masayoshi Son, who recently announced plans to raise $100 billion to intervene in AI chip companies... Finally, back to the theme: As mentioned earlier, on Wednesday, SORA will see the continuation of the divergence, and the other sectors will look at the rotation; However, in the short term, the focus of the overall market is still on the general direction of AI; There are also rotation opportunities in other branches, but there is a high probability that the persistence will not be too good. Therefore, tomorrow SORA will be in the back row**, and tomorrow the difficulty of participating will continue to increase:
1. Insai Group (Chuang): large model; It is expected to continue to advance to 3 boards; 2. Guomai culture: large model; At the top, there may not be a chance to change hands this week.
3. Danghong Technology (Science and Technology): large model; Whether it can be promoted or not, there is a lot of suspense, and the key depends on the strength of the divergence in the direction of SORA;
4. High-tech development: computing power; It is expected to be promoted in large quantities.
For the rest of the back row, there is no expectation before the market, so you can only follow it by combining the call auction and the intraday environment;
Other non-mainstream branches, such as: Chinese prefix, new energy, rare earth, ** medicine, etc., will have rotation opportunities, but in the short term, it is necessary to combine the index and the first rhythm, and look at it comprehensively.
Well, that's all for tonight. Good night.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program