Recently, there has been a noticeable change in the attitude of Marcos in the Philippines. Instead of being tough on China as he used to be, he has opted for a more moderate approach. Why is he like this? It was because he had been influenced in many ways that he realized that his actions were unwise.
Philippines** Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos.
We all hope that the situation in the South China Sea will be peaceful and stable, but we will not tolerate your willfulness and provocations, and if you do not know how to rein, you will have to bear the consequences.
Let me tell you why Marcos is in a bad mood. He originally wanted to confront China in the South China Sea and become a "maritime Ukraine", but he did not expect that his plan would encounter so many difficulties and resistance.
Comrade Meng Yan, former deputy director of the International Communications Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, said that Marcos's plan was affected by a number of factors.
First, U.S. support is not reliable. The United States originally wanted to organize escort operations in the Red Sea to fight the Houthis in Yemen, but it did not achieve the desired results and had to transfer the aircraft carrier in the South China Sea.
The Houthis in Yemen are so strong that they have blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and are specifically attacking Israeli ships and the United States. Although the United States claims to be very powerful, it does not dare to go to war lightly because the situation is complicated.
For example, is it cost-effective for the United States to use a missile worth more than $2 million to fight a drone worth only $2,000?
Of course, the United States wants to save money and do more work, so it wants to win over other countries and form a maritime alliance to escort ships in the Red Sea. But his appeal is not as strong as it used to be, only ten countries have answered his call, and two of them are very small, called Sergyu and Bahrain, and you won't find them on the map.
Although Spain is not small, he does not dare to express his position lightly, he said that it depends on the opinions of the European Union and NATO.
The Netherlands was also very cautious, he said that he would send someone to help, but he did not go out of the ship, and only sent two civilian officials over.
It was the same with Canada, which sent only seven people.
Norway was quite sincere, sending ten people.
Italy also said it was going to send a frigate, but he wasn't sure when it would arrive, and he said he was busy.
Britain is a hardcore brother of the United States, and there are two ** ships in the Red Sea, but he also took out only one to escort it.
Marcos boasted in the Philippines that he would participate in the Red Sea escort operation, and the United States was also very face-saving and made a lot of preparations, but as a result, he could only summon one British ** ship and 27 people.
Shipping in the Red Sea has suffered a lot of losses, and Egypt does not dare to speak, because the Houthis dare to go to Egypt's oil fields**. None of the countries of the Middle East took part in the convoy.
Why am I telling you this? Because these things have to do with Marcos' desire to confront China. The United States now has no way to appeal to other countries, and no one listens to his words, so he can only send troops himself. Will he still be able to support Marcos in this situation? He transferred all the aircraft carriers in the South China Sea.
If there is a conflict in the South China Sea and the Philippines and China confront, how many aircraft carriers can the United States send? Is the U.S.-Philippines really strong?
If you look at Israel's relationship with the United States, it is much better than your relationship with the United States, but the United States can only make such a mess in order to help Israel. Will he come to your rescue? Marcos, you have to think about it.
Second, ASEAN's support is also insufficient. Marcos had hoped to put pressure on China with the help of ASEAN and Japan, but he did not get the results he wanted.
On December 17, Japan hosted a meeting to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Japan-ASEAN cooperation, and Marcos also went.
At the meeting, Marcos did not shy away from talking about the South China Sea, saying that China is "the most complex geopolitical challenge" and that he hopes ASEAN and Japan will unite on the South China Sea issue and create problems for China.
But ASEAN is not interested in the South China Sea issue, and they all remained silent and did not respond to Marcos's words. Marcos didn't dare to get angry.
Japan's Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported that the meeting issued a joint statement, but did not mention China and Russia, and only said something ambiguously about "respect for territorial integrity" and "renunciation of the threat or use of force."
The silence of ASEAN and the low profile of Japan disappointed Marcos, who did not get the support he wanted, so he relented and stopped being as aggressive as before, opting for a more moderate stance.
The Philippine Business Daily reported that Marcos said in an interview with reporters that he did not approve of the expulsion of Huang Xilian, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines. He said that Huang Xilian is China's ambassador, and he is only carrying out his duties and standing on China's standpoint. He said the Philippines wanted a peaceful solution, but warned against "overreacting."
Who is overreacting? Isn't that you Marcos? When you were a child, you followed your mother to China and met the chairman, and many people expected you to have a traditional friendship with China, but who knew that you had changed. You will be good with China for a while, and you will be in trouble with China for a while, do you want to take advantage of both ends?
Of course, there is one of the most important reasons why Marcos changed his degree, that is, in the end, Marcos may also be aware of the opposition in the Philippines. His ** policy did not win the general support of the Filipino people, but caused a lot of ** and dissatisfaction. His deputy and former daughter, Sarah Duterte, publicly criticized his approach, arguing that he had turned his back on the Duterte family's traditions and abandoned friendly cooperation with China. His sister Ime Marcos also advised him not to rely on the United States, but to seek a peaceful solution with China within the framework of ASEAN. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, directly accused him of being a puppet of the United States and betraying the sovereignty and interests of the Philippines.
Marcos may also be concerned that if he continues to confront China, it will not only harm the country's security, but also affect the Philippine economy. China is the largest partner of the Philippines and the largest investor. If China imposes sanctions on the Philippines, the Philippine economy will suffer hard. It is also unclear whether the United States will be able to provide sufficient economic assistance to the Philippines. Marcos probably does not want to repeat the mistakes of Ukraine, abandoned by the United States and bogged down.
To sum up, there may be many reasons for Marcos's change, but the most fundamental reason is that he realized his mistake, he knows that there is no way out of confrontation with China, and only by cooperating with China can the interests of the Philippines be protected. Of course, Marcos is not a reliable partner, and he may change his mind at any time, so we must not let our guard down and continue to firmly defend our sovereignty and rights.