On the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Aerospace Forces suffered another shameful day - the precious A-50 AWACS aircraft was shot down again! Like last time, the Ukrainian side quickly came forward to receive the credit, claiming that it was the Ukrainian army's long-range anti-aircraft missile that made a meritorious service. But the problem is that, judging from the starting point, the Ukrainian army is simply bragging about ......
Let's start with the news itself. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuk, posted on social ** that the Ukrainian army once again shot down the Russian army's A-50U airborne early warning aircraft, and the Ukrainian army's long-range surface-to-air missile unit shot down an A-50U early warning aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces near the Sea of Azov. "This result is a serious blow to Russian air power." This is already the second time in more than a month that the Ukrainian side has announced the shooting down of the A-50 AWACS aircraft. On January 15, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny said that the Ukrainian Air Force shot down a Russian A-50 early warning aircraft and an Il-22 command aircraft over the Sea of Azov on the evening of the 14th. The Kyiv Independent also said that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed that the plane was shot down during its joint operation with the Ukrainian Air Force.
The United States "Power" ** said on the 24th that the first news about the downing of the A-50 early warning aircraft came from a Russian military blog, but said that the plane was lost by mistakenly wounding itself over the Sea of Azov. The social **circulation** shows the burning wreckage of the plane. Allegedly, the plane crashed in the Armenian village of Trudovar, near the Sea of Azov, in the Kra**dar region of southern Russia.
RIA Novosti released information on the 23rd that an unidentified plane crashed in Kra Dar Krai, Russia.
Obviously, it can be confirmed from the news of Russia and Ukraine that the downing of this A-50 early warning aircraft is basically a sure fact, but the question is who did it - was it a well-planned sneak attack by Ukraine, or a Russian anti-aircraft missile force with a brain convulsion?
In fact, the same question was raised in January when the A-50 AWACS aircraft was shot down. The aircraft was hit over the Sea of Azov at that time, at a distance of more than 100 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian front, and was within the maximum range of the Soviet-made S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles and American-made "Patriot 2" anti-aircraft missiles equipped by the Ukrainian army. Considering that the Ukrainian army's S-300 is basically exhausted, it is generally believed in the West to be the result of the American-made "Patriot 2" missile. The Ukrainian Air Force also quickly claimed the results, claiming that it "first set a historical record for shooting down an AWACS aircraft in real combat."
The Russian side believes that it may be related to the accidental attack of the local air defense forces of the Russian army in a tense environment. Especially due to the repeated attacks on the Crimean bridge, the Russian army has deployed a large number of air defense systems near the bridge. The Ukrainian army has also repeatedly used AMD-160 air-launched decoy shells to simulate a variety of targets and create confusion for the Russian air defense system. Therefore, the highly tense Russian air defense system may mistake the Russian command aircraft over the Sea of Azov for a Ukrainian target. Considering that the Russian air defense forces have already had the experience of accidentally injuring their own fighters many times before, this possibility is not unreasonable.
This time the A-50 was shot down at a significantly farther distance from the Russian-Ukrainian front.
But the A-50 early warning aircraft that was shot down for the second time was obviously different from the first time - the aircraft was hit more than 260 kilometers away from the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and even the Ukrainian army's longest-range "Patriot-2 Guidance Enhanced (GEM)" anti-aircraft missile has a maximum range of only 200 kilometers. Due to the fact that the "Patriot" series of air defense missiles adopts the method of trailer maneuvering, the field maneuverability is very limited, and the number of "Patriot" missile systems owned by the Ukrainian army is extremely small, even less than the number of A-50 early warning aircraft of the Russian army, it can be said that the "Patriot" missiles of the Ukrainian army are more valuable than the A-50 early warning aircraft of the Russian army. Therefore, if the Ukrainian army wants to shoot down this A-50, it needs to secretly infiltrate the entire set of "Patriot" anti-aircraft missiles into a location more than 50 kilometers behind the Russian defense line, which is very risky. And even if the sneak attack is successful, its launch position will be immediately exposed, and it will be difficult for the Ukrainian "Patriot" missiles to be withdrawn in time.
Another possibility proposed by the West is that the Ukrainian army used old Soviet-made S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missiles. It was developed in the 60s of the last century in the USSR, and the latest improved model has a range of more than 400 km, which theoretically can shoot down large air targets such as the A-50 with poor maneuverability. At present, the Ukrainian army still has a small number of this missile in service, but it is mainly used for ground attack, and there is little news of anti-aircraft shooting. In addition, the missile system is bulky and bulky, and its mobility is very poor, and in the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with drones, it is difficult to imagine that the Ukrainian army will deploy it to the front line without being destroyed.
** Screenshot of the A-50 AWACS before it was shot down.
There is another reason that is not conducive to the "theory of missile sneak attack by the Ukrainian army". "Power"** released a video purportedly taken before the A-50 AWACS aircraft was shot down**, showing that the aircraft released a series of infrared decoy bombs in the night sky, but it did not work (it may also be synchronously sent ** jamming radar-guided chaff, but it is not visible in the dark night environment), and the AWACS aircraft exploded into a fireball in the air after being hit. As can be seen from this **, the flight altitude of the A-50 when it was hit was not very high, probably only a few hundred meters. Whether it is the "Patriot 2" or the S-200 of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, it is simply impossible for its guidance radar to guide a long-range anti-aircraft missile to hit a low-flying A-260 early warning aircraft at a distance of 50 km.
Therefore, according to the above information, it can basically be ruled out that the A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile of the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army stood up for the first time to ask for merit, but it was just another "lying about the merits".
The author judges that this time there is a high probability that it was a mistake by the Russian air defense forces. Although from an outsider's point of view, it is really unimaginable for the air defense forces to shoot down such a first-class target as their own early warning aircraft, but considering that similar accidental injuries have occurred many times in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Russian air defense forces have been criticized for chaotic coordination, it is not incomprehensible that the Russian army mistakenly shot down its own early warning aircraft under tense circumstances.
But on the other hand, the Russian army previously had only 9 A-50 AWACS aircraft at its disposal, one of which was damaged by a drone attack on the tarmac of an air base in Belarus, and the current situation is unknown; The other was shot down over the Sea of Azov in January, and with the latest downed, the number of valuable airborne early warning aircraft of the Russian army has been greatly reduced, not to mention the loss of two air command crews with rich command experience. You must know that Russia theoretically still has the ability to produce 2-3 A-50U AWACS aircraft per year, although two were shot down this time, it can still replenish the equipment within 1 year; However, it is even more difficult to train two air command groups with rich experience in actual combat and capable of skillfully guiding joint operations within one year. From this point of view, the most painful thing for the Russian army should be the loss of personnel, which cannot be replenished in the short term.