Visual China.
Text |New energy industrialist."2024 will be a more volatile and worse year. ”For a period of time, the new energy industry has communicated with a number of industry insiders, and everyone has generally given the above judgment.
The involution will spread in an all-round way and be everywhere: in the subdivided field, in addition to large savings and household savings, industry and commerce will be fully launched; The momentum of going overseas has been further enhanced; At the product level, the iteration of large-capacity cells and systems has been accelerated.
From 2022 to 2023, the industry will mature rapidly. Among different enterprises, there are still fast and slow in terms of the pace of product launch, the intensity of market development, and the selection of technical routes. Enterprises with relatively earlier layouts are more likely to build a certain first-mover advantage.
After two years of baptism, the cruelty and urgency of competition have become more profound and comprehensive. Any business that wants to stay at the table will do its best and will no longer have illusions and hesitations.
This protracted involution tests the strength of the company's products, channel development and capital.
The competition in the sea of blood is half ambition and half death.
Scale, scale, scale. The leading enterprises are all doing their best to strive for a larger share. Weaker companies will face the risk of being squeezed into greater living space. The industry reshuffle will be more obvious.
In 2023, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute and BYD will be regarded by the industry as the two major volume kings.
In the first half of the year, BYD took the lead in the first battle; In the second half of the year, CRRC shocked the industry with a historic low price.
Fight all the way, and the effect is obvious. According to the statistics of the energy storage and power market, whether it is a single project-level winning bid or a centralized procurement of central enterprises, in the 2023 ranking of energy storage system integrators, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute ranks first, and BYD also ranks among the top five.
Since 2022, CRRC Zhuzhou has been the biggest dark horse stirring up the industry pattern. In just two years, it has rushed to the first place in the industry.
The new energy industry entrepreneur exclusively learned from a person familiar with CRRC Zhuzhou Institute that in 2021, the energy storage revenue of CRRC Zhuzhou Institute will be about 200 million, which will climb to 40 billion in 2022, and the revenue in 2023 will be nearly 10 billion.
The team of CRRC Zhuzhou Institute can dare to fight. At a previous industry conference, Yan Lijun, deputy general manager of its integrated energy division, revealed that in the past two years, the team has grown from more than 20 people to 400-500 people, and the personnel are young and energetic.
Recently, the new energy industry has learned from people familiar with the matterIn 2024, CRRC Zhuzhou will remain scale-oriented. The big principle is to try to make the scale as big as possible without losing money.
BYD is also pursuing scale, but its strategy is changing.
According to the new energy industry, BYD Energy Storage has asked relevant personnel to visit the first energy bureau across the country to find out the local project resources and development owners.
According to a person familiar with the matter, BYD Energy Storage has reflected on the low-price strategy in 2023: it was originally a first-tier brand, but blindly reduced prices, but created the impression of a second-tier brand for customers. "This year, BYD will do more work in marketing and customer service. ”
BYD's ferocity is also obvious to all. Before 2023, its domestic shipments have not yet entered the top 10. In 2022, Yin Xiaoqiang will be fully responsible for BYD's energy storage business. The new energy industry communicated with people familiar with the matter and learned that Yin is a fierce general. For business, his style of play is to find the right direction, concentrate artillery fire, and continue to attack.
According to data from woodmackenzie, in 2022, Sungrow will account for 16% of the global market, ranking first in the world. Fluence, Tesla, Huawei, BYD, etc. ranked second, accounting for %.
Relying on the accumulation of photovoltaic inverters and the forward-looking layout of energy storage business, Sungrow has become the champion of inverters and energy storage.
There is no suspense that energy storage will surpass the inverter and become the first major business of Sungrow.
Sungrow's strength is diverse and balanced. In terms of market, overseas and domestic two-wheel drive. At the technical and product level, it understands the power grid better, and also has platform-based development capabilities and architecture. In October last year, Sungrow launched the world's first 10MWh fully liquid-cooled energy storage system PowerTitan20。
New energy industrialists learned from Sungrow insiders that in 2024, Sungrow's strategic direction is to increase market share and fully cover products.
The full coverage of products is more to strengthen the layout of industrial and commercial energy storage. The new energy industry learned from a channel dealer that this year, the global shipment target of Sungrow in the industrial and commercial market is 2GWh.
Sungrow is on offense and on defense. In the case of global giants scrambling to increase energy storage, Sungrow does not dare to be negligent. Its market share is not much far from that of subsequent manufacturers.
Previously, in an exclusive interview with new energy industry experts, Gu Yilei, vice chairman of Sungrow Power Supply and president of Optical Storage Group, made it clear: "There is a lot of pressure, and we have to keep running in order to continue to lead." ”
With the support of extreme manufacturing capabilities, product strength has always been the heaviest bargaining chip of CATL.
CATL's B-grade battery cells are even better than the A-grade batteries of some second-tier manufacturers. It is already a broad industry consensus.
Since 2024, relying on its own product strength, CATL has begun to replicate the business model in the field of power batteries. It is to establish a joint venture with a large customer to establish market competition barriers.
On February 5, China Energy Construction and CATL jointly established Energy Construction Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Energy Construction Times") was inaugurated in Shanghai.
Tianyancha shows that Nengjian Times will be registered in August 2023 with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is mainly engaged in the development, investment, construction and operation of new energy storage and related equipment integration business.
In terms of shareholding structure, China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group, a subsidiary of China Energy Construction, holds 51% of the shares, and CATL holds 34% of the shares. CLP Engineering is the main business entity of China Energy Construction.
On February 21, China Electrical Equipment Group Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. was officially registered and established with a registered capital of up to 2 billion yuan. CATL's CATL New Energy Industry Investment*** also participates in it.
The new energy industry also learned from insiders that CATL is still in contact with to set up a joint venture company, and Group has agreed.
In 2023, CATL will begin to participate in the integration of energy storage systems, first surrounding a number of central enterprises such as China Nuclear Energy Huineng, State Power Investment Corporation, China General Nuclear Power Corporation, Huadian, and China Energy Construction. However, in the bidding at the level of a single project, CATL is not outstanding in scale and has not yet entered the industry ranking.
The development of the domestic energy storage market, especially the large storage market, is generally resource-oriented, that is, the ability to communicate and cooperate with owners such as energy central enterprises and local energy state-owned enterprises.
CATL has never participated in the new energy development process like inverter and wind turbine companies, which is the homework that CATL has left behind. The establishment of a joint venture company by marriage with a customer can make up for the shortcomings to a certain extent.
On February 21, China Electric Equipment Group Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. was officially registered.
The registered capital of the company is as high as 2 billion yuan, and it is jointly held by 8 companies, including China Electrical Equipment Group, Pinggao Group, Xu Ji Group, Shandong Electric Group, and CATL New Energy Industry Investment.
As early as December last year, China Electrical Equipment Group revealed the integration of its subsidiaries Xu Ji Group, Pinggao Group, and Shandong Electric Group's electrical energy storage business. It aims to reduce the duplication of resources and further expand and strengthen the energy storage business.
China Electrical Equipment Group was established in September 2021. It was reorganized and integrated by the former State Grid's Xu Ji Group, Pinggao Group, Shandong Electric Group and China Xidian Group.
China Electric Equipment Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to become a dark horse that will rewrite the pattern in 2024.
Previously, the new energy industry communicated with a person from Xu Ji Electric's energy storage business, and the other party revealedIn the energy storage business, China Electric Equipment Group's goal is to be the first in the industry, and it is likely to be achieved this year.
In the domestic energy storage industry pattern, Xu Ji Electric, Shandong Electric Times, and Pinggao Group are all important participating forces.
*: Entropy Seeking Research Institute.
A person from a leading energy storage brand said that the above-mentioned companies have accumulated for many years, and if they want to expand the energy storage business, the speed will not be too slow. "Moreover, as a power grid equipment company, they have an advantage in the subdivision of grid energy storage. At present, there is still very little energy storage on the grid side, and the market increment is very large. ”
However, it remains to be seen whether the establishment of China Electrical Equipment Group Energy Storage Company can bring the effect of 1+1+1>3.
The new energy industry learned from the industry:At present, the new company is mainly functional. In terms of performance, Xu Ji, Pinggao, and Shandong Electric Times will also carry out energy storage business at their own pace.
The above-mentioned Xu Ji Electric Energy Storage person also admitted that it is still challenging to be the first in the industry. "The positioning and strategy among peers are not the same, and there are variables. Relatively speaking, we are still on the medium side. ”
In the two years when the domestic energy storage market was highly hot, Huawei was also an inverter giant, and it was exceptionally quiet. The main reason is that the string technical route it adheres to is costly and mismatched with the prevailing market environment in China.
However, Huawei is also opening the door to the domestic market by building demonstration projects, such as Three Gorges Rudong, China General Nuclear Power Hubei Public Security, and China Resources Henan Neihuang.
According to the exclusive understanding of new energy industry experts, in 2023, Huawei's large storage shipments will reach 1GWhBy 2024, Huawei's energy storage target will reach several GWh。Moreover, Huawei is already recruiting employees who are convenient for the energy storage business.
A person from Huawei's digital energy business department said that new energy vehicles are very volatile, but Huawei still squeezed the table, "Energy storage is the same, we have this confidence." ”
In terms of market development, Huawei has two tendencies: one is to focus on profits and not easily do unprofitable projects; The second is to export technology and products through partners, and do not directly connect with customers. This is conducive to recovering cash flow.
This year, under the expansion strategy, Huawei will make certain compromises on the domestic market and whether there are some adjustments at the channel level. We'll see.
In the competition in the industry, a situation that often occurs is: immortals fight, mortals suffer.
The leading enterprises are leading in technology and products, and also have a certain scale effect. In short, their products are easy to use and reliable, and they have flexible room for adjustment. If you take the initiative to reduce prices, it will be a clear dimensionality reduction blow to many enterprises.
In 2024, leading companies are striving for more market share, and market concentration will be further improved, which means that more small and medium-sized enterprises will fall.
Of course, the life of the leading enterprises is not easy, and they will compete with each other in terms of products, channels and going overseas.
At present, expanding the battery cell and system capacity is one of the main means to reduce costs. It can be determined that this year, major companies will accelerate the mass production and application of 300+ battery cells, and will also make certain reserves in larger capacities.
The competition for channels is mainly in the industrial and commercial scene. Last year, Singularity Energy took the lead in the industrial and commercial market, and this segment heated up in an all-round way. However, for many companies, the past year has been more of a warm-up, only releasing new products and making official announcements.
This year, the investment of major enterprises in the industrial and commercial market will be unprecedented. With more players and more intensity, the competition for channels will be particularly fierce.
The momentum of going to sea will be further strengthened. CRRC and Hipostron, which have grown up solely on the domestic large storage market, are also testing the waters. According to the new energy industry, CRRC's first destination is the Middle East.