Key takeaways. In January, the pig ** fell first and then rose, and the average weight of slaughter fell slightly. According to Boya and Xun, pig prices have fallen first and then risen since January, reaching 1501 yuan kg, +608%；In January, the loss of self-breeding and self-raising exceeded 240 yuan. At the end of December 23, the number of fertile sows in China was 41.42 million, which has been 12 consecutive months. Considering that China's pig breeding will basically be in a state of loss in 2023 (only from mid-August to early September, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising will turn from a loss to a profitable state), and at the same time, the peak season is not prosperous, and the epidemic is in advance, we believe that the reduction of production capacity will continue and there are signs of acceleration. In the current context, we recommend paying attention to pig enterprises that are leading in the cost control industry, continue to improve, have relatively healthy funds and reasonable valuations.
December White Chicken Ancestor Update 1190,000 sets, the price of seedlings in January was rapid**. 23 December 11 of our ancestral generation update90,000 sets; 23 years full year update 127990,000 sets, of which 32% are imported, 68% are domestically produced, and the number of grandparents is more than sufficient. On January 14, 24, there were 109 grandparents in the breeding herd650,000 sets; The stock of parent generation chickens is at a historical high, and the current production capacity is relatively sufficient, and the stock of parent generations in production has declined since November 23. The upstream supply inflection point of the white chicken industry has appeared, waiting for the inflection point of downstream chicken supply; On January 26, the PB (LYR) of SW broiler breeding was 203 times, in the historical bottom range, can be concerned about the plate.
The agricultural index performed weaker than the CSI 300 in January. From the beginning of the year to the 26th, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index **852%, CSI 300**2 in the same period84%。In the sub-sectors, fishery and agricultural product processing performed first, with -465%、-5.30%；And animal health (-1669%), feed (-12.).18%).
Investment strategy. The livestock and poultry breeding chain is still the current focus, focusing on the low-level layout opportunities of the pig cycle, comprehensively considering the current situation of the industry's loss time, the extent of the destocking of sows and the spread of winter epidemics, superimposing the historical low valuation of the industry, and focusing on high-quality pig enterprises with leading cost control and good capital; Secondly, there is a certain correlation between yellow feather chickens and pig prices, and at the same time, considering the low level of their own supply side, the follow-up may be upward; The upstream supply of white-feathered chickens is shrinking, and the whole is in the early stage of the upward cycle, which can be paid attention to. In addition, it pays attention to the post-cycle sector of the breeding chain, including feed-related enterprises.
The above is only used as a teaching case and does not constitute investment advice, and is for reference only.
Reference**: January 29, 2024 China Galaxy Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Industry Dynamics Report in January: Pig breeding continues to lose money, grasp the window period of pig cycle layout.
Special Disclaimer: The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
This article is edited by investment consultant: Shang Yaxiong a1290623030001.