Hot Q&A.
Original title: The United States is "retaliating" in the Middle East.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 4 (Xinhua) -- Xinhua News Agency reporters Deng Xianlai and Wang Shang.
On the night of the 3rd, the United States and Britain launched airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen's capital Sana'a and other provinces. Just the day before, the U.S. military had airstrikes on more than 85 targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian-backed militias.
What is the calculation behind the frequent occurrence of the United States in the Middle East? Will the U.S. military operation escalate?
Where did you hit. The United States reported on the 3rd, citing the words of the United States, that the United States and Britain hit more than 30 targets in at least 10 locations controlled by the Houthis in Yemen on the same day, including command and control centers, underground warehouses, etc. According to a statement issued by the US ** Command on the 3rd, the US military intercepted six anti-ship cruise missiles launched by the Houthis on the same day. In addition, the U.S. military also destroyed a number of Houthi drones on the 2nd.
The US side said that in the military operation against targets in Syria and Iraq on the 2nd, the US military airstrikes on 85 targets in seven locations, dispatched a "huge number" of warplanes, including long-range bombers sent from the US mainland, and struck the command and control center and intelligence center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated militia organizations, as well as warehouses for storing rockets, missiles and drones.
Iraq confirmed on the 3rd that a number of military facilities and nearby residential areas of the Iraqi security forces were hit by US airstrikes, killing 16 people, including civilians, and injuring 25 others. On the same day, the Syrian military said that the "US occupation forces" launched a "blatant aerial aggression" against several locations and towns in eastern Syria, killing and injuring many civilians and soldiers. Iran said that the US airstrikes violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq, and that these attacks were another "risky action and strategic mistake" of the United States, which would only lead to an increase in regional tensions.
Why the fight. Since January 12 this year, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched successive airstrikes on Houthi targets, killing and injuring many people. Since the outbreak of the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Houthis have frequently attacked Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea waters to show their support for Palestine. The Red Sea route is an important part of the world's maritime routes, and frequent attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea waters have forced many international shipping companies to suspend the route and detour to the southern tip of Africa. This can lead to delays and additional costs, which in turn can increase shipping costs.
Three U.S. soldiers were killed and more than 40 wounded in an attack on a U.S. military base in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border on January 28. This is the first time since the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that the US military has reported that a soldier has been killed in an attack in the Middle East. The U.S. side believes that the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance Movement (IRIM) militant group used Iranian-made drones to attack U.S. military bases in Jordan. In the past few days, Biden and a number of senior US officials have repeatedly warned that they will retaliate against the armed organizations that attacked the US military in stages and multiple times.
John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications at the U.S. Committee, said U.S. airstrikes targeting military targets in Iraq and Syria lasted about 30 minutes and were "carefully selected." Kirby said there was "clear and indisputable evidence" that the targets were linked to attacks on U.S. military personnel on the ground.
Douglas Sims, head of the operations department of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the US military believes that the airstrike will have an impact on the ability of relevant armed groups to attack Americans.
Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Outer Chinese University in Shanghai, pointed out that the United States is adopting a "brinkmanship policy" to achieve deterrence by constantly escalating the intensity of retaliation. Niu Xinchun, executive director of the China Institute of Arab Studies at Ningxia University, believes that the US military has two considerations for this air strike: First, it is necessary to prevent another attack on US military bases and personnel by striking at militia groups in Iraq and Iran; The second is to avoid direct attacks on Iran itself and not to seek a direct military conflict with Iran.
Will it be upgraded. As for the follow-up actions of the US side, analysts believe that the US military may continue to expand the scope of retaliation in the coming days, but there will be no head-on conflict between the United States and Iran.
Biden said in a statement issued on the 2nd that the purpose of the retaliation is to respond to "all those who try to harm Americans", not to provoke conflict in the Middle East or other parts of the world.
In response to a question about whether the U.S. military plans to strike targets in Iran, Kirby declined to disclose the U.S. military's follow-up options, instead reiterating that the U.S. aims to reduce and disrupt the military capabilities of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the militant groups it supports, and force them to stop attacking U.S. military personnel and facilities. Kirby stressed that the US side does not seek war or conflict with Iran. Sims also said that the US side does not intend to send a signal to any side other than attacking the armed groups of the US military.
The Hill reported that Biden has been under tremendous pressure to retaliate against Iran since the attack on US soldiers in Jordan was killed. Some Republicans have called on Biden to order attacks on targets inside Iran, but this could well lead to a full-scale war between the United States and Iran, which Biden does not want.
Ding Long believes that the "brinkmanship of war" of the United States will not be effective, and "the tug-of-war will continue to be staged in the Middle East, and the situation will continue to be turbulent and tense, but the United States and Iran will not break out into a head-on conflict."
What's the plan? Since the beginning of this year, the spillover effects of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have intensified significantly. On the one hand, the United States has "ignited" in many places in the Middle East to deter its opponents by force; On the other hand, it is trying to "extinguish the fire" on the Palestinian-Israeli issue for its own political purposes: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit the Middle East again to mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict amid escalating regional tensions.
Analysts believe that this reflects the confusion, contradictions, and contradictions of the US Middle East policy, which will not only fail to end the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but will also further aggravate regional tensions.
Regarding Blinken's upcoming fifth visit to the Middle East since the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Liu Xinlu, dean of the School of Arab Studies at Beijing University of Foreign Chinese, pointed out that the US side's posture of mediating a ceasefire is intended to appease its allies and ease the anti-American sentiment of Arab countries.
Ding Long believes that the United States cannot get around the United States behind its mediation, and Biden does not want the Palestinian-Israeli issue and the Red Sea issue to become unfavorable factors affecting his election results. Bassam Salehi, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, agrees that the United States has never seriously considered the issue of a ceasefire in response to the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Blinken's frequent visits to the Middle East are only to prevent Biden from losing votes due to the humanitarian crisis caused by the conflict in the Gaza Strip when he runs for re-election.
Tariq Fahmi, a professor of political science at Cairo University, said that the United States** is seeking a ceasefire in Gaza while still launching attacks on Houthis and targets in Iraq and Syria, indicating that US Middle East policy has fallen into chaos. This will not only weaken the credibility of the United States in the Middle East, but also show that the United States is no longer able to solve the current predicament in the Middle East.
Mohammed al-Omari, an expert on Syrian politics, believes that the aggressive actions of the United States are tantamount to adding fuel to the fire and pushing the region into a "state of high instability" for the already tense situation in the Middle East. "We are only one step away from direct confrontation, and any miscalculation could push us to the brink. ”
Ding Long said that in order to resolve the predicament and crisis facing the Middle East region, it is necessary to return to the root cause of the current series of chaotic situations -- the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the first step to solving the problem is to achieve a long-term Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire. (Participating reporters: Cheng Shuaipeng, Li Jun, Duan Minfu, Yao Bing, Ji Ze, Wang Hao, Bao Xuelin).
*:Xinhua.