Consulting firm Stonex this week expects sugarcane crush in the 2024 25 harvest in the South Central region to reach 622.1 billion tons. Sugarcane production was affected by lower rainfall in December and January, which was lower than the previous estimate of 628.8 billion tons.
The new outlook also indicates that the outlook for the current quarter is expected at 657.5 billion tonnes compared to a record level, down 54%。On the other hand, if 6The forecast of 22.1 billion tonnes was met, which would be the second highest result in the sector.
Sugar production is estimated at 43.1 million tonnes, largely stable from the consultancy's last 43.2 million tonnes. This result is 1% higher than the 42.7 million tonnes expected at the end of 2023 24.
Sugarcane biofuel production fell by 104% (to 24.5 billion liters) pressure, total ethanol production in 2024-25 is expected to decline by 5 percent year-on-year5% to 31.7 billion liters. Corn ethanol processing is expected to grow by 16% to 7.2 billion litres.
As in the current cycle, the production mix should continue to favor sugar production as the global sweeteners market continues to decline, providing support to commodities. As for ethanol in the sugar market, although again the consulting firm said in a report that despite the recovery in demand, it still did not find solid support to raise the level and compete with sugar.
As a result, the mill must use 52% of its raw materials for sugar production, compared to 49% in the previous harvest.
StoneX also highlighted that market dynamics have changed in recent years, with advances in corn ethanol production leading to sugarcane mills starting to have more flexibility in sugar production. This was demonstrated in the 2023 24 cycle as investments in the plant's crystallization capacity expanded.
In this way, the factory is able to take advantage of the opportunities in the global market and increase the volume of exports", he added.
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