During the Spring Festival holiday, the interest rate on foreign 10-year U.S. bonds hit a maximum of 434%, the US CPI exceeded expectations after the Federal Reserve continued to adopt a tight monetary policy, the dollar index rose, commodities fell back, international capital investment enthusiasm decelerated, more capital is expected to flow into the domestic market, at the same time in the macro policy to increase support for the capital market, capital investment enthusiasm increased, Hong Kong stocks rose for three consecutive days, ** most of the market rose, driving the steel spot market expectations, after the steel trend? Let's listen to the analyst's detailed analysis ......
Factors affecting steel prices
There is still room for lending rates to fall
On February 18, the Financial Times, the head of the central bank, published an article saying that the central bank released information on MLF operations in February. Combined with the signals released by the central bank in the early stage, the MLF has continued to exceed the quota, the liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, and the interest rate (LPR) in the loan market may fall in two days, and the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is more likely to fall.
With the landing of the RRR cut before the Spring Festival holiday to boost the market's investment enthusiasm, the market has more expectations for interest rate cuts, although the February MLF rate announced today remains unchanged, but more expectations fall on the decline of LPR,Drive the market operation sentiment, at the same time the steel spot market started to increase, with the warmer weather, downstream terminal projects and construction is expected to start, business expectations enhanced, good steel trend.
Sangang steel mills rose by 100 yuan tons
Sangang price adjustment: On February 18, 2024, it will be raised by 100, and the thread 4300, high line 4600, and coil snail 4650 will be implemented. Monthly discount rate, the first tranche 175, 2nd gear 195, third gear 235‰。
On February 18, Shanxi Jingang price adjustment information: thread ex-factory ** increased by 30 yuan, coiled snail factory ** increased by 30 yuan, wire rod ex-factory ** increased by 30 yuan.
On February 18, Shanxi Jianbang price adjustment information: thread factory ** increased by 30 yuan, coil snail factory ** increased by 30 yuan, wire rod factory ** increased by 30 yuan.
On February 18, Shanxi Jingang price adjustment information: thread ex-factory ** increased by 30 yuan, coiled snail factory ** increased by 30 yuan, wire rod ex-factory ** increased by 30 yuan.
From 0:00 on February 18, Henan Jigang Group adjusted the building materials products as follows: 1. The bar thread was raised by 20 yuan tons; 2. The construction of disc round and coil snail ** increased by 20 yuan ton; 3. The construction round steel ** was raised by 20 yuan tons.
At present, the domestic interest rate cut and the expected blessing of the upcoming two sessions, the market investment enthusiasm has been boosted, the steel spot market demand has not been falsified, the market merchants are expected to be reflected in the spot end, the market opens today, and the spot market is generally risingAt the same time, due to the continuous decline in the output of steel enterprises, the inventory pressure of steel mills is not large, the factory remains high, and the market merchants are more willing to raise prices.
The amount of steel decreased by 12 month-on-month880,000 tons
This Friday's large steel varieties **804060,000 tons, down 12 percent week-on-week880,000 tons, a decrease of 16%。In terms of inventory, the total inventory of steel on Friday was 2103240,000 tons, an increase of 325 week-on-week430,000 tons, an increase of 183%。In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of large varieties fell by 13 this week7%。
Before the Spring Festival holiday, under the pressure of the high cost of iron ore and bicoke, the profits of steel enterprises narrowed, the enthusiasm for production weakened, the amount of steel continued to decline, the pressure was alleviated, and the contradiction between supply and demand was not prominentThe replenishment sentiment is not good, the inventory remains low, and the number of merchants and terminals replenishment increases after the New Year, which drives the market transaction volume, which is good for the steel industry trend and achieves a good start.
The spot market is stable and strong
According to the data of China Steel Network APP
Building materialsAmong the 24 markets, 15 markets rose 10-30 yuan tons, and the average rebar 20mmHRB400E was 4003 yuan tons, up 6 yuan tons from the previous trading day;
Hot rollsAmong the 24 markets, 21 markets rose 10-40 yuan tons, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4098 yuan tons, up 24 yuan tons from the previous trading day;
Medium and heavy platesAmong the 23 markets, 18 markets rose 10-50 yuan tons, and the average of 14-20mm medium plates was 4163 yuan tons, up 20 yuan tons from the previous trading day.
On the 18th, part of the resources of Pufang billet in Qian'an area of TangshanUp 80, now reported 3650, ex-factory tax included.
Integrated perspectives
Today is the first working day after the Spring Festival holiday in China, under the macro policy and the expectation of the two sessions, the steel spot market has shown a good start, especially the ordinary billet in Tangshan Qian'an has risen twice in a row, up 80 yuan to 3650 yuan tons, under the active promotion of the capital and policy, the market ushered in the first round of the bottom of the first round of *** plus the convening of important meetings near the end, a number of departments actively promote the economic recovery, the domestic fundamentals are gradually repaired, the market business steel inventory is at a low level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, After the holiday, the market replenishment increasedIt is expected that tomorrow's steel will run steadily and strongly, with a range of 20-40 yuan tons.