As the conflict continues to escalate in the Kokang Lao Cai area in northern Myanmar, the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Myanmar issued an urgent warning for Chinese citizens to evacuate as soon as possible. This sudden incident conveyed two important messages: First, the all-out general offensive of Lao Cai was about to begin, which showedNorthern MyanmarThe war is not over; The second is that the fighting in Myanmar is unlikely to subside anytime soon, impliedNorthern MyanmarThe situation will continue to be volatile. However,Northern MyanmarWhen the tide of the battle will settle down, and who will decideNorthern MyanmarThere are still many unknown factors in the pattern.
The ceasefire agreement between Myanmar** and some ethnic armed groups has not been fully implemented. On the one hand, the Tatmadaw has failed to fulfill the terms of the ceasefire agreement, and on the other hand, the offensive in the Lao Cai area has never stopped. According to the channel, the attack and defense in the street fighting situation are more complicated, but the allied forces have gained control of a certain area in Lao Cai and are currently at the moment of decisive battle. Therefore, the Chinese embassy and consulates in Myanmar once again reminded Chinese citizens to evacuate as soon as possible, indicating the outside world's prediction of the military operation in Lao Cai.
However,Northern MyanmarThe end of the war was not entirely satisfactory. There are obvious contradictions between the two sides of the battle over each other's core interests. The Tatmadaw wanted the Allies to relinquish the ports they had occupied and allow them to retain their garrisons in the Kokang area, while the Allies demanded that the Tatmadaw withdraw from Kokang and abandon the Mujie port. This basic contradiction has led to the impossibility of implementing a ceasefire agreement. Northern MyanmarThe outcome of the war will depend on the duel of strengths, and only through war can the two sides decideNorthern MyanmarPattern.
Northern MyanmarThe imminence of the war suggests that the fighting will continue. Although the ceasefire agreement has achieved some consensus on the surface, it has not been effectively implemented. In addition, for the Allied forces, only by taking the port can they secure financial revenue to feed the army and **, and for the Burmese army, how to keep the port is also crucial. War is a means by which both sides compete for core interests, and results can only be obtained through blows.
However, even if the Allied forces eventually regained Lao Cai and Mu Jie, the war was not over. The Kokang region is relatively small and barren, and it is likely that the Allies will continue to expand their territory for future development, especially in the hope of recovering the Lashio region. However, while the current strength of the Allied forces may not be able to achieve this goal, the capture of Lashio is still attractive to them. StableNorthern MyanmarThe crux of the situation isNorthern MyanmarRegime change within the borders, only MinAung Hye** It is only then that the political landscape of Myanmar can be fundamentally changed.
China inNorthern MyanmarThe role of the war is limited, and it cannot interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs like the United States. However, China can pass the blowTelecom fraudcrime to move the situation forward. China has released pairsNorthern Myanmar10 from the three major familiesTelecom fraudThe ringleader's wanted warrant, but the Myanmar side did not follow up, which indicates that MyanmarArmy**They don't really support China's crackdown. Northern MyanmarThe stability of the war situation must be sensitiveAung HyeRegime change is a prerequisite. China can work with other countries to provide economic aid and development projects to Myanmar, and exert influence and push in the processNorthern MyanmarProblem solving.
In summary,Northern MyanmarThe escalation of the fighting and the urgent warnings from the Chinese embassy and consulates sent an important message that a full-scale general offensive in the Lao Cai area was about to begin, indicating that the fighting would not subside anytime soon; The end of the war in Myanmar will depend on a duel of strength, and the fighting will continue; China inNorthern MyanmarThe role and role are limited, but can be hit by blowsTelecom fraudCrime and economic aid exert influence on Myanmar. Northern MyanmarThe development of the situation is still fraught with unknowns, who will decideNorthern MyanmarThere are also many uncertainties in the landscape.