Reporter Light Pillar.
Following yesterday's sharp decline in the photovoltaic sector, as of press time, the relevant ** still continues to adjust, TCL Zhonghuan**601%, photovoltaic auxiliary materials Ancai Hi-Tech, Follett, Foster have different degrees of **. Disturbed by external news, the photovoltaic sector is in shock, and market confidence needs to be restored. Last night, the chairman of LONGi Green Energy, a 100 billion photovoltaic leader, increased his holdings, expressing his optimism about the prospects of the photovoltaic industry with actions, or the best comfort for photovoltaic investors.
The chairman of the leading photovoltaic company of 100 billion yuan urgently increased his holdings
LONGi Green Energy announced that the company received a notice from Chairman Zhong Baoshen that it intends to implement its first shareholding increase on January 30, 2024, and will continue to implement its shareholding increase plan in the future.
Probably worried about the fermentation of external news, the chairman of LONGi Green Energy issued an urgent notice last night. It is relatively rare for listed companies to inform the company that it will be the first day before the increase in shareholdings. Market participants believe that this is the company's executives to show the "hole card" to the market, full of confidence in the company's future. As of press time, LONGi's share price has been sticking to the bottom line of the red market.
On January 26, 2024, LONGi Green Energy told investors that the first quarter was the off-season for market demand, and the global market demand began to gradually increase in the second quarter, which is expected to support the industrial chain and promote the correction of the industrial chain.
However, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of being "eliminated" under the continuous low level of the industrial chain.
LONGi Green Energy said: "This year, the pressure of oversupply in the market is greater, if the industrial chain continues to run at a low level, then enterprises with fragile financial conditions and unadvanced technology may be forced to stop production and reduce production or withdraw, and the actual supply and demand of the industry will continue to be balanced, and the industrial chain will return to rationality." ”
At the third quarter of 2023 results briefing, LONGi Green Energy predicted: "Global PV demand will increase in 2024, but the growth rate will slow down, and it is expected to increase by 20% on the market basis in 2023." ”
Overseas, LONGi Green Energy's U.S. module factory has started production in January 2024, and it is expected that PV module shipments to the U.S. will continue to grow in 2024 with the improvement of the company's overseas localization capabilities.
Up to now, LONGi Green Energy has an existing HPBC cell production capacity of about 35GW, which will be fully launched to the global distributed market in 2024. In the first half of 2023, the company's 46GW monocrystalline silicon ingot wafer project in Ordos, Lijiang (Phase III) 10GW monocrystalline silicon ingot project and Vietnam with an annual output of 3The 35GW monocrystalline cell project has been put into operation, the Ordos 30GW monocrystalline cell project is progressing as planned, the Xixian Leye 29GW monocrystalline cell project and the Taizhou Leye 4GW monocrystalline cell project are climbing, and Malaysia has an annual output of 66GW monocrystalline silicon rod, Malaysia with an annual output of 28GW monocrystalline modules and other projects are in progress.
The performance stall of many photovoltaic companies in the fourth quarter has laid the groundwork for the first time
The reporter of "Investment Express" noticed that photovoltaic-related ** had already shown signs of adjustment as early as a week ago. With the announcement of the fourth-quarter performance forecasts of a number of listed photovoltaic companies, the secondary market has taken action.
Since the performance of quartz shares was released on January 24, because the overall performance was not as good as the average expectations of institutions in the past six months, the stock price fell by 20% in three days after the announcement and issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuations in trading.
In the industry fluctuation cycle, the performance of some enterprises has "stepped on the brakes".
JinkoSolar expects to achieve a net profit of 72 percent in 2023500 million yuan to 79500 million yuan, an increase of 146 percent year-on-year92% to 17076%, deducting non-net profit of 65500 million yuan to 72500 million yuan, an increase of 147 year-on-year59% to 17405%。According to the reporter's comparative calculation, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter is expected to be 895.7 billion yuan to 159.5 billion yuan, down 2662% to 2892%, down about 3647% to 6433%。
Gaoce Co., Ltd., a diamond wire and silicon wafer processing company, expects the company to achieve a net profit of 14 in 2023400 million to 14800 million yuan, an increase of 82 percent year-on-year6% to 8767%；The net profit after deduction was 1.4 billion yuan to 14600 million yuan, an increase of 86 percent year-on-year61% to 9461%。Calculated from the disclosed data, Gaoce Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 202367.3 billion yuan to 307.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1475% to 2585%, a decrease of about 3302% to 4174%。
Shuangliang Energy Conservation will achieve a net profit of 14 in 2023800 million to 16200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5481% to 6945%, and the net profit after deduction was 13200 million to 14700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4699% to 6369%。However, combined with the data of the third quarter, Shuangliang Energy's net profit in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 07.7 billion to 21.7 billion yuan, deducting non-net profit of 00.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, down from the previous month.
The most surprising thing is that the non-net profit of TCL, a major silicon wafer manufacturer, fell sharply by 44% year-on-year47% to 5218%。TCL Zhonghuan said: "In 2023, the photovoltaic industry chain as a whole will show a fluctuating downward trend, and the company's main products will quickly reach the irrational range in the fourth quarter, resulting in pressure on the profitability of the main business. ”
The backward photovoltaic production capacity has been cleared at an accelerated pace
In 2023, although the newly installed PV capacity is expected to exceed 400GW, the production capacity of the entire PV industry chain far exceeds the market demand, and the average capacity utilization rate remains at about 50%. Although the increase in the overall industry production capacity helps the development of the industry, it also makes the competition between enterprises increasingly fierce.
In this context, the operating rate and inventory of enterprises have been affected, the elimination of backward production lines has accelerated, and the construction progress of some new production capacity has slowed down. In Zhong Baoshen's view, this "knockout" may be very different from the past. In addition to the fluctuation of demand in the photovoltaic industry, the technology iteration is also very fast, and the increment of the market will be met by new technology products.
But at the same time, companies with technological advantages will usher in benefits. It is understood that TOPCon currently has the largest production capacity in several new technology directions, and due to the short-term large-scale expansion of TOPCON's production capacity, there are signs of overcapacity. According to Infolink statistics, in 2023, 2024 and 2025, TOPCON's nominal production capacity is expected to reach 477GW, 662GW and 725GW.
Looking back on 2023, many leading companies such as LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and GCL Technology have continuously made breakthroughs in HJT, BC, perovskite, tandem cell efficiency and module efficiency. Looking forward to 2024, some analysts believe that leading enterprises will further strengthen their research and development in the field of technology, strengthen their voice in the industry, and further accelerate the development of new technologies and the layout of advantageous production capacity.
Among the 55 companies participating in the bidding for photovoltaic modules in 2024, the lowest P-type products** is 0806 yuan watts, the lowest ** for n-type products is 087 yuan watts, the opening price of photovoltaic modules for centralized procurement reached a new low. At present, the market demand for N-type and P-type products is widening, the trend of N-type replacing P-type is becoming more and more obvious, and backward production capacity is speeding up the clearance.
There will be no excess of advanced capacity
There will never be a surplus of advanced production capacity. In the view of Jin Lei, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the photovoltaic industry is now mainly facing the risk of low-end overcapacity. In the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the integrated development of photovoltaic and related technologies, accelerate the operation and construction of the photovoltaic industry, promote product quality improvement, and deepen international cooperation.
Looking back at the past year in the photovoltaic industry, whether it is upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers or midstream photovoltaic modules, from blind expansion to overcapacity, and then to painful clearance, although the pain at this stage continues, there is still hope.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in the future, it will strengthen the standardized management of the photovoltaic industry, guide the reasonable planning and layout of the industry, steadily promote the iteration and transformation and upgrading of industrial technology, and strive to improve the level of industrial development. On December 19, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) publicly solicited opinions on the "Solar Photovoltaic Industry Comprehensive Standardization Technical System (2023 Edition)" (draft for comments), and proposed that by 2025, more than 40 new national standards and industry standards will be formulated to achieve full coverage of the basic general standards and key standards of the photovoltaic industry.
On December 21 last year, at the National Energy Work Conference, the National Energy Administration proposed that about 200 million kilowatts of new wind power and photovoltaic capacity will be installed nationwide in 2024, which is 25% higher than the target for 2023.
It is required to add about 200 million kilowatts of wind power and photovoltaic capacity in the country in 2024, which is 25% higher than the target in 2023. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that in 2023, the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will reach 345GW-390GW, and the overseas market will be dominated by Europe, the United States, India, Brazil, etc., and the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will reach 160GW-180GW. According to this data, China's installed capacity accounts for about half of the global total, and the proportion has increased compared with the previous two years.