Kunpeng Project
Who will save the economy in 2024? Special groups may become economic saviors
2022 has been a very tortuous year, it can be said that it is very complicated, what exactly is the problem?
We've been wondering lately where China's economy is stuck, and why? Many of the answers he had seen were less straightforward and less reliable.
Do some people think that our economy will get worse in 2022?
In numerical terms, GDP growth of 5.2 percent and a 0.2 percent increase in the consumer price index show a solid and inflation-free growth trend, which is a very good economic achievement that is expected by the developed countries at present.
But why do many people feel that the current economic situation is not good, and they feel very bad?
The GDP growth figures can't be faked, even if the initial figures are a little different, and then adjusted later, the gap will not be so big that it will go, especially in the last two years, we have been very honest, and there are no false economic figures like the previous two years.
It's a dilemma, to say that the economy in 2022 will be bad, that's false, but to say that the economy is really good this year is also unlikely.
Let's explain the other things, and then slowly unravel the mystery.
First, let's take a look at what obstacles China's economy will face in 2022.
It is not an exaggeration to say that some people describe it as "insufficient domestic demand and insufficient consumption". Or is it because of the state of the U.S. economy, not its causes? All economic conditions have contributed to a lack of domestic demand and consumption, and it is not this situation that has made the economy feel bad.
In other words, the current situation has made everyone very bad, they have chosen a conservative consumption model, and they don't want to spend all their money.
As a result, one of our most consuming industries in these decades, real estate, will cease to exist.
So, how exactly should you answer that? Let's divide the relevant information into parts, and the answers to the questions will come out naturally.
First of all, in 2022, central enterprises and central enterprises are the real backbone, that is, in the most difficult times, they can reflect their real strength and play a vital role at critical times.
Just come up with some numbers and it will tell the story.
According to the figures released by the Ministry of Finance, by 2022, the ** fiscal fund management budget will reach 674.4 billion yuan, an increase of 18 percent over the same period of the previous year4%；This year, the overall profitability of state-owned enterprises in the country increased by 7 percent over the same period last year4%。
A few days ago, the figures released by the ** enterprise group show that the ** enterprise will reach 5The total investment of 09 trillion yuan increased by 11 over the same period of the previous year4%。In these projects, the investment in strategic new industries amounted to 218 trillion, an increase of 32 over the same period last year1%。
Secondly, the survival situation of private enterprises is generally poor, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have not escaped the dilemma of operation from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
And the numbers explain this very well. In 2022, the operating income of 500 private companies increased by only 394% to 3983 trillion RMB; After deducting taxes, the company's net profit was 164 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 486%。
In 2022, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 47%, mainly from the private sector.
Among them, private fixed capital investment was 253544 billion, a decrease of 04%。
In 2023, the PMI, which is an indicator of confidence in the manufacturing sector, has been significantly higher than that of small and medium-sized enterprises. For example, in December, the PMI of the larger companies was 500%, and the PMI for SMEs was 487% and the Small Business PMI was 473%。
This shows that small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, mainly private enterprises, are in a sluggish state.
Among the private enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises and individual businesses are the most experienced by the public, especially those brick-and-mortar stores have a higher turnover rate, which is also the most direct feeling of the general public about the economy.
Nationally, the proportion of private enterprises has reached more than 90 percent, and the proportion of private enterprises has reached more than 60 percent nationwide.
The private sector has solved many employment problems for the country, especially for college graduates and new college students.
Therefore, in the second half of this year, the biggest obstacle is the slow recovery of private enterprises. If private enterprises do not operate well, it will be difficult to ensure the employment and stable wages of employees, and some will even be dismissed.
Even a job is not guaranteed, let alone a salary. Ordinary people's jobs are not guaranteed, and their wages are not guaranteed, let alone increased, which will have a direct impact on terminal consumption.
When the private sector is revitalized, people's jobs and incomes are secured, people's incomes increase, people's confidence increases, and people's consumption increases, which is a good cycle.
The reality is that by 2022, state-owned enterprises will be relatively stable, while on the other hand, private enterprises are still struggling, some people are still struggling, and some people are still struggling, which leads to some people being stable, some people still struggling, and the whole society is unbalanced.
Therefore, supporting and speeding up the recovery of private enterprises and ensuring the employment opportunities and income of the masses of the people are the most important tasks this year.