There are always friends who say, "such an obvious reason" Why don't you say it, it's not clear, but it's obvious but don't say it, you can only say that you can't say it. My principle is, don't tell the truth, the hottest topics in the past two years are undoubtedly fertility, real estate and debt. Regarding debt, there is a problem that has always plagued everyone, intuitively thinking that debt is too high is not good for the future, but also feeling that the state controls the money printing machine, and it can be printed directly, where do so many things come from. Today, we will explain it to you. First of all, it is very normal and common to say that the operation of borrowing the new to repay the old is very normal and very common. Even in extreme cases, it can be said that the future debt will not be repaid, and only interest will be repaid. Not only is this possible, but it has also existed in history. For example, the Netherlands, the Netherlands is the grandfather of modern finance. They had been borrowing new money to pay off the old, but then they got tired and said that they were going to issue a bond that did not repay the principal and only paid interest. What does it mean, if you lend **10,000 yuan, ** will give you an IOU, and in the future, you will be given 500 yuan every year with this IOU, with a 5% rate of return. It is equivalent to you buying a 5% and risk-free financial product, and it is okay. At that time, there was a lot of old money, so he lent his money to the Netherlands, and gave the annual interest to the child, so that he could die with peace of mind, which effectively prevented the child from trying to prove that he was not a waste and proved that the money was gone. At this time, there is a problem, if you are not an old wealth, you are ready to slowly eat interest in the future at the beginning, and you regret it one day, what should you do?
The Dutch have long figured out that they have a secondary market for government bonds, and if you don't want this bond, you can go to the secondary market and sell it to people in need. If there are many opportunities to make money in the whole society, everyone may not be able to look at the 5% income, and it will be more difficult for you to sell this bond, and you may have to reduce the price to sell it. If there are few opportunities to make money, everyone in the whole market wants your 5% wealth management product, and you can sell it at a higher price. The current U.S. bond is also like this, and the ** of that bond also fluctuates in real time. Of course, it turned out that there was no need to do this, if you don't want to repay the money and only repay the interest, borrowing the new to repay the old can also achieve the purpose of "perpetual bonds". But it's not good to sell perpetual bonds. But here's the most critical question, how do you keep getting people to lend you money? The answer is "credit".
If you dare to buy your bonds, you have to promise that you can't sneak "large-scale printing of money to repay debts", after all, you will be happy for a while, and you will never lend you anything in the future. For example, if your bond promises a yield of 5% and you have printed 100% of your money for more than a year, in this case, you will buy your bond only if you have a problem with your brain, or even hold your currency if you have a problem with your brain.
Note that it is not that it cannot be printed, theoretically, there is no ** can restrain the urge to print money, but the responsible ** will think about the long term, try to print as little as possible, and try to refrain from it. **Enough restraint, the people will take out their spare money to lend **, which can not only solve the urgent needs of the moment, but also stabilize the value of the currency. Later, the Dutch went to England to be the head of the country and established the Bank of England, and the British went to the American continent and created the United States. The operation of "* borrowing money + bond market" has slowly spread to the world, and our country is now using this set of games.
However, when it came to actual operation later, it was very different. For example, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States have also depreciated their currencies by more than 90% in the past 100 years, which looks very rubbish. But the point is that peers are more rubbish, there are not many currencies that can survive for a hundred years, and even fewer currencies that have depreciated by 90% in a hundred years. The vast majority of countries have depreciated so much in more than ten years, which sets off that they belong to the big ones in the stalks.
In fact, our country is relatively restrained. This is probably not accepted by many people, but it is indeed a reality. China's money stock has increased greatly in the past few decades, mainly due to foreign trade and foreign investment in China's US dollars have been exchanged for renminbi circulation, which has pushed the renminbi many times higher at once.
The second is the people's housing loans, the national bonds, and the local urban investment bonds, all of which are loaned from the bank for a huge amount of money. There isn't much money for real printing. Most countries are now borrowing from the new, including Japan and the United States. And everyone should pay attention to the fact that countries that care about ** debt and treat debt as a matter are generally quite reliable. Those unreliable countries, ** need money to print money directly, what kind of debt do you borrow? For example, Argentina, which was hotly discussed some time ago. Argentina is the kind of country that does not have any credibility at all, ** if you need money, you will print it casually, resulting in the people having pesos in their hands to throw it away, and if it is too late, it will depreciate, and if it can be exchanged for dollars, it will be exchanged quickly. As a result, the Argentine private currency and the US dollar are used in parallel, and the common people save the US dollar and throw away the local currency. Now everyone understands why their new ** wants to scrap their currency and replace it with dollars, because the Argentine people who have no knowledge of economics also realize that the peso is pure garbage, that is, they keep printing money and looting the people, so it is better to scrap it quickly. This kind of deep disappointment with their own national currency, we can't understand their magical behavior, and we can't understand it. And Turkey, too, is a strange thing, their annual interest rate is higher than that of Russia, 45%, but the currency is still depreciating wildly. In May last year, 100 US dollars could be exchanged for 1,800 lira, and now it can be exchanged for 3,000. Their common people have lost trust in their own currencies, and they have frantically deposited US dollars, euros, and even renminbi, and when they get their own currency, they quickly throw it away, and when it is too late, it depreciates again.
You can see itThe national debt is a stabilizer, a kind of promise, ** through the act of "borrowing money" to promise the people that they will repay the money through fiscal revenue in the future, instead of printing money, to maintain everyone's faith in the currency. At this time, everyone thinks about a question, if the country is an individual, it owes a lot of money, and it can't pay it back, and wants to borrow new money to repay the old, under what conditions is it safe. First of all, this person is moving forward, and his income in the future will be higher than now, so that he can borrow more money and be able to repay it in the future. Second, he has to pay higher and higher interest rates.
And what happened to our country's debt? Generally speaking, to measure the size of debt, to compare the ratio of debt to GDP, it is like an ordinary person owes three million collapses, but a billionaire owes so much money.
Japan is 260%, the United States is 126%, and China is more complicated, because no one can tell how much debt the local government owes through urban investment bonds. However, according to Wind statistics, China is about 117%, and some data say that it is 77% in China, which is not counting urban investment bonds.
It can be seen that China's debt is not outrageous, but the previous model of "borrowing for development" must not be able to play, and debt is like a "snowball", rolling up is very terrible, if not controlled, it will soon be doubled, and the little partners who often take out loans understand. A few days ago, the state also suspended infrastructure projects in several provinces, and several of them are the kind of people who can't pay interest. Next, there is a high probability that they will have to pay it back, but don't let them toss it themselves. Speaking of which, it is clear if we look at the debt of our country again. Can debt be repaid by borrowing new money over time?
Of course. The premise is that the debt owed must be recognized, and at the very least, the interest must be repaid, and the principal will be repaid slowly in the future. This is also why many people subconsciously feel that the Japanese pill is actually very low in interest and the pressure to repay interest is very small, so they hold on. Now you understand why our country is going to cut interest rates, our local government owes a lot of money through urban investment bonds, and the annual interest expenses are very, very large, and the local government has no money, and many public services can't keep up, and even break part of the iron rice bowl. If interest rates are lowered, the pressure will not be so great. There is a high probability that interest rates will be cut continuously this year. The biggest difference between individuals and individuals is that no matter how much money we owe, it is impossible to print money, **Yes. If ** finally takes the route of printing money, it is not that it can't be done, it will definitely destroy the entire environmentBecause someone has to bear the cost, and if you use inflation to pay off your debts, you are actually those who are trying to save money to bear the costIf you print money to repay debts, the result will be "Argentinization" and "Turkification", and everyone will resolutely not deposit, because whoever deposits is the price. As soon as the money is spent, inflation will be pushed up further, and the whole environment will deteriorate day by day, and it will take many, many years to return to normal, and the gains outweigh the losses. Once credit is lost, it's very, very difficult to rebuild. Therefore, as long as the economy develops, the future income can cover the interest of the debt, and it can be borrowed all the time. The scale of our country's debt is indeed a bit large, but it is not outrageous, as long as we are more restrained in the future, borrow less, repay the interest first, and repay the principal slowly, there is no problem. The more troublesome is the residential sector. Those who borrowed a large amount of mortgages during the good times in the past few years have encountered bottlenecks in their careers and the general environment in the past two years, and they are very, very stressed, so they have to cut back on food and clothing to repay the loans. The worst thing is that the house loan may be 1 million at the beginning, but now after the house price, the house is not worth this amount. In this case, the vast majority of people still choose to grit their teeth and go down, otherwise they will be ruined in this life, not only ruined themselves, but also ruined by the child, with the temperament of the Chinese, they will definitely not cut off the supply casually. Almost all of the people I have seen who are cut off are really at the end of the road, and I really haven't seen anyone who doesn't pay back just because the house price has fallen. 
It stands to reason that they can also borrow new money to repay the old, and at this time, they will also encounter the problem of higher and higher interest, and in the end the income may not even be able to pay off the interest, let alone the principal. Therefore, if they are law-abiding people, they will definitely save money to repay loans, which will have a huge impact on the consumption of the whole society.
Now a very big uncertainty in our society is how big the scale of this "cutting down on food and clothing" and how long it will last.
Pessimists say that it may be like Japan, which will continue to repay its debts for 20 years. Optimistic people say that there is nothing wrong, after all, the sales of cars in the past two years show that the people still have money. To be honest, I don't know, so I won't guess.
So what if the "very unruly people" owe money?
In the past two years, many of the people who went abroad just couldn't pay the money they owed, so they simply left their hometowns. Many of those who go to Africa and Latin America are like this. They divorced and carried their own houses and debts, and some people simply took out a bunch of small loans when they left. This is also why ** wants to cut interest rates, reduce pressure for everyone, and also reduce pressure for **yourself, after all, ** I have not borrowed less money, and Japan simply reduced the interest rate to zero. Recently, Japan has not said that it has successfully walked out of deflation, and our country is likely to learn from Japan's strategy, in fact, there are already signs, such as low interest rates, expanding ** spending, building factories overseas and so on. At the beginning, Japan's first expenditure was mainly on infrastructure, and later infrastructure projects lost too much money and turned to the field of people's livelihood. And who bears the price of interest rate cuts? Of course, the people who make money in the bank. Everyone has also noticed that every time the loan interest rate falls, the deposit interest must be lowered first. In the past few years, the interest rate of the deposit bank could reach 4%, but the year before it was reduced to 3%, and now there is only more than 2% left, and it has to be lowered visually. Speaking of which, the conclusion is already clear.
In the face of huge debts, borrowing new money to pay off old ones is also a solution.
However, the premise is that the interest can be repaid. If the interest is not repaid, and the money is secretly printed to repay the interest, then the money stock will grow very, very quickly.
At first, the rich will find that they choose to abandon their local currency and exchange it for another currency. And then the middle class will find out, and eventually the average person will find out, that there will be hyperinflation like Argentina at that time. This kind of thing has happened in my country, so I have always been very vigilant.
But no matter how you repay the debt, it is always a painful process, how cool it is when you borrow money, how bitter it is when you repay it, and these hardships are indispensable at all, but it may not be the same people. Anyway, we are now at a crossroads, and many things have not been determined, how to repay debts, how to meet the birth rate, and how to solve the deflationary trend.
At this time, as ordinary people, there is not much room for operation, otherwise it is easy to have problems. Some time ago, there were people around who were high-profile at the time of **2900**, because according to the previous rules, 2900 was very safe, and then it was found that the previous rules had also failed, and now everyone guessed what the situation was. So stay healthy, keep your mind stable, be psychologically optimistic, behave conservatively, and get through this time. 