In 2023, has the consumption problem that we worked hard for a year been solved? Will consumption still be a problem plaguing China's economy in 2024?
In the new year, we continue to work hard, ** recently threw out a 2The large market of 6 trillion yuan has encountered many difficulties, which involves a large number of historical issues and interest issues, and even legislative issues that need to be solved.
In 2023,The economic problem we hear about the most is "sluggish domestic demand and weak consumption", has this problem been solved?？How will consumption perform in 2023?
First of all, as the first year of post-pandemic economic recovery, consumption in life scenarios such as catering, accommodation, and tourism will grow strongly in 2023, with the total revenue of the accommodation and catering industry increasing by 14% year-on-year5%, the total revenue of tourism increased by 175%。
At the same time, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2023 will be 4715 trillion yuan, an increase of 7 over the previous year2 per cent, of which 7 per cent in urban areas1%；Rural growth of 80%。
On the surface, consumption is not a laggard, but in reality it is not.
The social zero growth in 2023 is 72%, which was achieved from a low base in 2022, and the total amount of social zero in 2022 decreased by 02%, with a two-year compound growth rate of only 35%, which is lower than the two-year compound growth rate of GDP of 41%。
Therefore, consumption will remain a major challenge in 2024.
In 2024, "expanding domestic demand" will rank second among the nine major tasks, "focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting the further development of the domestic demand market through consumption stimulus and other measures".
What are we going to do? On January 22, ** introduced the relevant measures to develop the silver economy, and mentioned a 2A big market of 6 trillion.
In 2024, the installation of elevators in old communities should be "fully installed", because it is inconvenient for people to go upstairs when they are old. According to statistics, the national market for the installation of elevators alone is about 26 trillion.
According to the statistics of the relevant state departments, about 8 billion square meters of old houses were built between 1980 and 2000, and more than 70% of the old buildings inhabited by the elderly in cities and towns do not have elevators.
2.The big market of 6 trillion yuan, if it is completely opened, is not only the well-being of the people, but also promotes consumption, so we looked up the relevant information in recent years, and really found a lot of problems.
In the past few decades, China's development has been too fast, so in large and small cities across the country, behind the high-rise buildings, there are a large number of old communities that have not had time to be updated, and the transformation of these communities has always been a key point, and it is also a long-standing problem.
In the "three major projects" of real estate this year, there is also a special plan for the transformation of urban villages, but it is not specifically for the installation of elevators, and the two tasks have overlapping parts, but the transformation of urban villages is first piloted in super large cities, and the installation of elevators is spread more openly.
We also found that in recent years, the installation of elevators in old communities has been one of the key tasks, but there are many practical problems and difficulties in the implementation and promotion.
For example, in the 2018 ** work report, it has been mentioned that "orderly promote the transformation of 'urban villages' and old communities, improve supporting facilities, and encourage the installation of elevators with conditions", which was upgraded to "support the installation of elevators" in 2019.
All parts of the country have responded to the call of the state and issued support policies for the installation of elevators in old buildings.
Relevant data show that as of the end of October 2023, nearly 100,000 elevators have been installed in existing residential buildings across the country, and about 30,000 elevators will be installed in 2022 and 2023.
According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are about 170,000 old communities in the country, and it is conservatively estimated that each community is calculated according to 10 buildings, and there are 1.7 million buildings, so the speed of installing elevators is still far from the actual demand.
The reasons for this are not complicated, and they mainly involve conflicts of interest and a large number of complex practical situations.
For example, the installation of an elevator requires the signature of all residents, and we often see news that the residents on the first floor do not agree because they do not use the elevator, and the installation of the elevator is blocked, and the first floor is not well lit.
Another example is that the installation of elevators requires an assessment of the safety of the building and is done by a professional construction team, otherwise safety will be compromised. There are a few old buildings that are close to dilapidated buildings, and they simply do not meet the conditions for installing elevators.
So,The installation of elevators in old residential areas seems to have a large market, but it is difficult to do. This requires more action at the local level, especially at the community level, and may also consider promoting the resolution of interest disputes at the legislative level.
This is not only a large consumer market, but also an important livelihood project, and it is natural to increase efforts to promote its implementation.