The potential is huge, the difficulty is not small, and the future is worth looking forward to
There are some very important things that need to be focused on in the next few years. The key issue to be addressed is the structure of the economy, where our manufacturing sector is too heavy and our services are too light. In the past, traditional economic views such as Say's law viewed that the economy generally did not have any overproduction, and it was unlikely that there would be underemployment, that is, supply automatically created demand. But I have to say that there are too many people in the economic world who do not learn and do not follow the latest research in their own fields, and take the old yellow calendar in the textbook to analyze the real problems, how can they analyze it correctly? Economics and sociology are summaries and summaries of the laws of reality, which are based on a specific background of the times, social structure and technical level, unlike mathematics and physics, even if the laws summarized thousands of years ago can still be used now, and can be used in the future regardless of tens of thousands of years. 
Say's Law was a popular economic thought 200 years ago, in the long years of mankind before the Industrial RevolutionLack of output is the biggest or even the only problem。Including our analysis of the historical cycle law of ancient Chinese dynasties, the core is the contradiction between output and population growth, therefore, at the beginning of the 19th century, Say's law was established, and any country that does its best to consider is to promote production, as long as it is produced, regardless of quality and style, there will always be people who need it, which is nothing more than an adjustment. Today, Say's law can also be true, but it also needs to add a qualifier "when the aggregate output of society is seriously insufficient". In today's China, if a person who specializes in economics puts Say's Law on his lips, he needs to reflect on how long he hasn't studied it. In fact, the "Western pseudo-historical theory" that has been hotly discussed on the Internet recently is also a similar problem. More than ten years ago, when I was at the grassroots level, I conducted several rounds of visits and surveys to all the enterprises in my township and township, when the impact of the global financial crisis was still there, and the operating rate of many factories was very low. For example, in a garment factory specializing in OEM of foreign brand clothing, the author sometimes goes there to buy particularly cheap defective clothes that have not passed the acceptance, and you can buy hundreds of yuan of brand goods for dozens of yuan, but the annual capacity utilization rate of this is less than 20%. 
The traditional manufacturing industry doesn't say much, let's just say that the hot new energy vehicles, all over the country rushed up, among which the key power battery, the production capacity in June 2023 is 1860GWh, how much actual production has not yet been clear, but the utilization rate of production capacity of 1260GWh in 2022 is only 516%, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production this year has dropped significantly, which means that the capacity utilization rate of power batteries this year is estimated to be 40%. This problem is not only faced by new energy vehicles and domestic automobile brands, but also by traditional fuel and joint venture car companies, with a production capacity of 1830 in the first half of the year80,000 units, but the production is only 3.83 million units, and the overall utilization rate is 419%。The sluggish capacity utilization rate of the whole machine plant will inevitably affect the huge industrial chain behind it. 
From: CBN Statistics.
If the situation of higher capacity than demand persists for a long time, there will be a permanent decline in production capacity, which means more production line closures, factory shutdowns, business closures, and then job losses. Therefore, in the past few years, we have been shouting to promote demand, trying our best to go out and find demand for China's production capacity, at least to be able to obtain the demand to sustain it, so as to survive the winter. So what about the demand? This year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day tourism per capita expenditure has basically returned to 97 in 20195%, and from the per capita consumption expenditure in per capita disposable income, compared with 2019 is still 2 percentage points lower, if you want to restore the level of 2019, and further growth, it will take time, it is estimated that 3 years will still be needed, once the expectations for the future change, there is a consumption downgrade, and then want to start consumption upgrading, it is not possible to solve it overnight. 
There are a few data that are obvious, for example, the author has recently seen a hot discussion of medical insurance price increases from various platforms, and "380 yuan" is very popular, mainly referring to the basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents, and the number of residents participating in medical insurance has decreased by 25 million. Note that the number of employees participating in health insurance has been increasing. 
There are indeed policies that are not in place to be interpreted, and they are distorted by some unscrupulous peopleCorrectInterpreting policies is no less important than formulating them, which will be talked about later, there are also big changes. Resident medical insurance can be said to be the biggest benefit given by the state, A few hundred yuan a year is really not expensive, you can't always hold the idea of "chasing after the given, there must be a problem", I feel that the ** organization manpower keeps coming to persuade him to buy medical insurance, which is to focus on the hundreds of yuan in his hand, to be honest, even if 25 million people pay 500 yuan higher than 380 yuan, it will only be 12.5 billion a year, and the resident medical insurance expenditure in 2022 will be 9353400 million. This is the same as in previous years, when the local government urged to pay off 15 years of social security at one time, you can receive a pension, even if it is according to the maximum payment amount, that is, tens of thousands of yuan. Many people also think that they want to cheat him out of money, and if they don't hand it over, they will insult the staff who come to persuade him, and what is the result? Seeing others taking money every month, his eyes were red, and he in turn asked that he must agree to make up the payment. But there is no way, the policy window has passed. A word of strong advice:The more affluent and embarrassed, the more you have to pay the resident medical insurance, if you can, it is best to buy the local **-led inclusive insurance, the author has been buying it myself. Don't think that buying insurance without seeing a doctor is equivalent to throwing it away, medical insurance is life-saving. 
With that said, let's move on to demand. Household consumption is affected by distribution, and it is difficult to adjust it in the short term. The major reform of the financial sector is also a reform of distribution, which requires the financial industry to make profits。For example, from the current 8% of GDP added value, it will continue to decline to the average level of OECD member countries of 6% or even 5%, okay? Can we stop taking "the financial industry continues to maintain steady and rapid growth" as a political achievement, what is needed now is to reduce the proportion, which has dropped to 7 in 201868%, but as soon as the epidemic came, it rose to 8%. The proportion of 3% of added value, if calculated according to the GDP of 121 trillion in 2022, is 363 trillion, even if the added value is converted into output value according to the 70% service ** conversion rate, that is 5 trillion (3.).63 divided by 70%). China's 1.4 billion people can get 3,571 yuan per person per year, which is exactly one month's disposable income (the per capita disposable income of residents in China in 2022 is 3.).690,000 yuan). 
Of course, it is more cumbersome to calculate in practice, just give a simple example and understand the reason. In fact, if finance can make a large profit, it will inevitably mean the adjustment of the underlying logic of finance, which means the change of financial operation mode, the capital will decline, the financing cost of enterprises will be reduced, and entrepreneurship and innovation will naturally be encouraged, and economic vitality will be there. Make less money in finance, and try the feeling of making hard-earned money in other industries. Even if it falls to the average GDP of OECD member countries at 49%, not to mention the lower level of EU membership, brings more than 10% of the income of 1.4 billion people every year. It's no wonder that finance is scolded. Financial reform and distribution adjustment are one thing. On the other hand, it is still necessary to optimize the economic structure, especially the service industry, and do more additionsThere are many self-critics who always criticize the development of the service industry, always emphasizing that the Chinese population is large and the situation is different, so it is necessary to focus on the primary and secondary industries, and the proportion of the service industry cannot be higher than that of the primary and secondary industries, and many examples are cited. But do you know what these old tunes are?The service industry is also divided into production services and life servicesCommon haircuts, nail art, etc. belong to the life service industry, and the production service industry also belongs to the real economy. Apple is actually a producer service company, not a manufacturing industry at all, which is the "global factory-free" model that Apple has carried forward earlier, and many American companies have adopted this model to switch from manufacturing to services. In essence, Apple has become the head of Apple's industrial chain, outsourcing the manufacturing industry, such as outsourcing to Foxconn and other enterprisesApple does not manufacture itself, but focuses on producer services, such as scientific research and development, industrial chain financial services, digital services, management services, etc. After entering the chain, Apple industry chain enterprises not only have orders, but also accept Apple's all-round transformation and upgrading, from production and manufacturing to management system, all aspects, which is why Apple's requirements are so demanding, and many companies still want to join. Apple's support for this transformation is a typical producer service industry. How are we doing? Describe it in a positive way:The potential is enormous。I don't need to say much about the details, I can keep talking about it for hours, or the macro data, which best reflects the current situation. In 2022, the import and export scale of services** will be 889.1 billion US dollars, 59,8019 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129%, a record high, but only accounted for 14% of the total import and export volume, but 30% of the volume of developed countries is services. From the perspective of the deficit surplus, the surplus of goods is 685.6 billion US dollars, and the deficit of services is 94.3 billion US dollars. But be sure to understand:Output value and added value are not the same thing, and the proportion of output value converted into added value varies greatly in different industries. For example, the manufacturing industry is goods, and the output value is converted into added value is about 20%, which varies according to different products, as a general understanding, it is simpler. Last year's surplus was 685.6 billion US dollars, which is converted into added value, that is, GDP is only 131.7 billion US dollars (6856 * 20%). The ratio of the output value of service ** converted into added value is about 70%, and the conversion ratio of service ** used in the above calculation of finance is roughly calculated. Then $94.3 billion translates to GDP 660US$100 million (943*70%). Therefore, the "big order and small reversal" of goods and services** is finally converted into GDP, not an increase of 6856-943 = 591.3 billion US dollars, but 1317-6601=656.$900 million. And 2022 is still a good situation, because of the impact of the epidemic, exports have increased significantly, although due to the fact that foreigners come to China less, so the bulk of China's service exports is less foreign exchange for foreigners in China to travel, accommodation and play, but overall it is earned. If you change it to before, for example, in 2019, the surplus of goods was 420 billion US dollars, and the deficit of services was 214.6 billion US dollars, calculated by the above method, it is converted into added value, that is, GDP is: (4200*0.).2）-（2146*0.7）=-662.$200 million. In recent years, the export of advanced manufacturing industry has increased, and the proportion of the output value of goods converted into added value has also increased. That's right,From the perspective of added value, we are the deficit countryand accounts for about one-third of the global deficit. Don't keep talking about the so-called capital running away with money, is it love if capital doesn't make money? Capital is rich but not stupid. The more essential reason is on the bright side:The goods are extremely developed, but the service potential is huge, so the service deficit basically offsets the surplus of the goods. The key behind this is the issue of the domestic economic structure and the high-quality development of the service industry. The service sector looks huge, accounting for 52 in 20228%, reaching 56% in the first half of 2023, and the producer services sector also looks good, accounting for 31 in 20223%, accounting for about 60% of the total scale of the service industry. But dig deeper and you'll find that the devil is in the details. For example, logistics accounts for about 15% of GDP, while Southeast Asia is generally 10%, Europe and the United States is about 7%, it is true that these countries are not as large as China, the population is large, but the dense population of Chinese should be the advantage of logistics to reduce costs, just like only in Chinese cities, express delivery can push the cost of a single service to the limit. Why is logistics accounting for such a high proportion? In fact, tens of millions of practitioners in the logistics industry, the vast majority of people, such as truck drivers, do not have high incomes, and logistics costs remain high, even one or two times higher than those in many countries, mainly due to industrial planning, transportation planning, high-speed long-term toll collection and other issues. Let's talk about transportation planning first, China's railways have developed greatly, and the cost of railway transportation is much lower than that of automobile transportation, about a quarter, in terms of cost, the use of train freight should be given priority as much as possible, but in 2022, the total tonnage of train freight cargo accounts for only more than 2%, and road freight is as high as 9058%, even if the railway transportation distance is longer, the proportion of tonnage kilometers is a little better, but how can such a proportion reduce logistics costs. The problem is that there is no way, the often said "seven links and one level", that is, roads, water supply, electricity, drainage, heat, telecommunications, gas "seven links" and land leveling. But note, does not include the railway, if the train transport, can not solve the last kilometer of freight problem, you have to add at least two additional loading and unloading, the cost of loading and unloading is very high, especially very slow, and have to use the car to transport over, it is better to use the car freight at the beginning, direct point to point. Therefore, the state has placed special emphasis on important documents in the field of transportation such as the "Outline for the Construction of a Transportation Power" and the new "Five-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power (2023-2027)"."From the relatively independent development of various modes of transportation to pay more attention to the integration and development of the transformation".Only then can we carry out large-scale transportation and bring railways and civil aviation under the Ministry of Communications. 
The industrial planning has exacerbated this problem, and the traditional "local championship" mechanism has made great efforts to attract investment and build industrial parks, which has caused serious homogenization, resulting in the industrial chain layout scattered throughout the country and not concentrated, which greatly increases the logistics cost. The next step is to find a way to adjust the traditional "promotion tournament" mechanism, which is organizational reform. As for the issue of continuous toll collection on expressways, it stands to reason that after the expiration of the 20-, 25-, or 30-year toll collection period, what costs will have to be recovered, but what about the reality? Let's talk about the author's example, I used to live outside the East Fifth Ring Road, there is a village toll station on the Jingtong Expressway, you have to pay 5 yuan to go up, 10 yuan a day if you drive, how to pay thousands of yuan a year, or you have to slowly block a few kilometers on the auxiliary road. 
In 2021, the operating income of Jingtong Expressway will be 300 million, which is how it was collected. At that time, it was agreed that the 30-year fee collection authority would be adjusted, but the fee would be adjusted on June 10, 2022, except for the 7-9 a.m. fee in the direction of Beijing, and the rest of the time will be free for all directions. Thanks to the city ** moved to the Tongzhou sub-center. 
How many more highways are still charging beyond the agreed toll period? Can the original charging period be shortened? I don't expand it anymore. Finally, to sum up: of course, the service industry should be vigorously developed, but the country said that the focus is on the producer service industry, if the life service industry grows too fast, then the result is that 30 yuan haircut once becomes 100 yuan, 200 yuan at a time, it seems that the data is high, but in fact it is still a haircut.
Only the producer service industry, whether it is for scientific research and development of manufacturing, agriculture, non-manufacturing industries, or logistics and transportation, industrial finance, digitalization, wholesale and retail, etc., has the real economy as the foundation, it is very solid, and the output is real, not a number game. This is the country's emphasis on the real economy as the core, the proportion of manufacturing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period must not be less than 25%, plus agriculture, non-manufacturing industries such as mining, plus real estate construction, the proportion of the secondary industry can reach about 35%. Then the producer service industry will be developed, and continue to maintain a proportion of 50% or higher in the service industry.
1. The proportion of the secondary industry + producer service industry can be maintained at about 65%, so that the economic structure is very stable, and it will become a tumbler with a very low center of gravity, a very stable chassis, and a tumbler that can withstand the wind and waves. If one day: in the service **, can achieve a surplus, then it will be very different. In this process, there are a lot of opportunities for individuals, and we must take advantage of them. Surviving the darkness before dawn is the real ** era.