How long will the pre-holiday A-share strength last? Is the reversal coming? datayes!Pro summarizes the views of some sellers on the market.
Learn from the 2015 2016 stock market crash 10~3.1) Based on the "national team" capital scale tends to expand and its rescue principle of "** first, small and medium-sized market last", it is expected that the "transactional risk" will be mitigated with a high probability; 2) At present, the technical indicator system we have constructed points to the market or has been in the bottom area, which means that the market is expected to continue; With the release of 500 billion PSL and the landing of the RRR cut, if the "interest rate cut" is cashed in next week, the monetary "combination punch" will support the improvement of short-term risk appetite, and the calendar effect of "financing balance" is superimposed, and the market liquidity is expected to further improve after the Spring Festival. Therefore, maintaining an optimistic judgment, it is expected that February and March will be expected to start more than a month of "restlessness**" At the same time, taking into account: In the short term, even if the "easy money" is difficult to "ease credit", the fundamentals will not be significantly improved due to the current easy money, or even weak improvement, at most the potential risk can only change from large to small; Although the average daily decrease in financing balance has reached the level during the stock market crash, it has not yet touched the "extreme value" close to 100 billion, therefore, in the long-term dimension, in the general direction, A-shares "want to rise and first suppress" judgment, after the "restlessness" of A-shares, may still build a "double bottom" in the second quarter, that is, the market volatility near April may rise again, it is recommended to be cautious.
Learn from the 2015 2016 stock market crash 10~3.0 review conclusion, waiting for the confirmation of "easy currency" in the first quarter, and choosing "small and medium-sized cap + growth" offensive: first, focus on the direction of economic structural transformation, including: electronics, automobiles, mechanical automation, medicine (innovative drugs), etc., and focus on the TMT direction with theme catalysis, especially consumer electronics that are over-falling in the short term; the second is to adapt to the brokerage to enhance the flexibility of the portfolio; The third is to configure the alpha combination with strong overseas logic to smooth the fluctuation of the combination.
2024 is the starting point of a new bull market in A-shares, and core assets are expected to usher in valuation repair and growth styles will rise.
On the one hand, the current core assets have exceeded the decline based on fundamental understanding, and the odds trading of core assets is obviously attractive, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. The mitigation of liquidity risk catalyzed by capital market policies is expected to have a positive reflection on fundamental expectations and protect the valuation of core assets. Subsequently, the trend decline in U.S. bonds and the efforts of domestic policies will lead to the narrowing of the nominal growth gap between China and the United States, and the expectation of fundamental recovery is expected to increase, thereby driving the valuation of core assets to repair.
On the other hand, changes in U.S. Treasury yields have a significant impact on the A-share style, and the decline in U.S. bond interest rates will be good for the growth style of A-shares, while the previously relatively dominant micro-cap and high-dividend styles will be relatively weak. From the perspective of the denominator, even if the resilience of the U.S. inflation and labor market disturb market expectations in the short term, causing short-term fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the trend of marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy has not changed, and 2024 is still the starting year for interest rate cuts. From the molecular side, the fundamentals of the growth sector represented by core assets are expected to have limited room for further downside, and global demand is expected to pick up after the Fed cuts interest rates, driving the improvement of fundamental expectations; From the perspective of capital, the return of incremental funds will improve the liquidity of the market and regain the "pricing power", the growth style preferred by foreign and domestic institutions is expected to rise, and the micro-cap and high-dividend styles may be relatively weak.
From the perspective of the previous adjustment time and space and valuation cost performance, A-shares may have bottomed out, superimposed on the recent accumulation of positive factors on the capital and policy side, and the market may usher in the first wave of the bottom. Looking ahead, the policy and funding levels are expected to usher in marginal continuous improvement. At the policy level, as the important meeting approaches, the active policy of stabilizing growth will continue to exert force, and the domestic fundamentals may be gradually restored. In terms of capital, the net outflow of active funds from A-shares, represented by financing transactions, has been obvious in the past period, and it may be expected to be gradually replenished in the future. In addition, benefiting from the loosening of overseas liquidity, the RMB exchange rate may gradually stabilize in the future, and foreign capital in A-shares is expected to return. To sum up, we believe that the current market is already in the process of bottoming, and the future time and space may learn from the first wave of the historical bottom and the spring restlessness.
The external liquidity recommendation is to be vigilant against risks, chase momentum to be cautious, increase disturbances in March, pay attention to the suspension of BTFP, the exhaustion of reverse repo and the Fed's discussion on the exit of QT. After the A-share pre-holiday liquidity accelerated out of the V-shaped **, the current snowball is basically knocked in, the proportion of financing transactions on the capital side is expected to return to a record low, foreign capital has returned to more than 10 billion yuan for two consecutive weeks, and small-cap broad-based ETFs have also begun to improve. Although the inflation data reflects that demand is still weak, the financial data social finance and M1 have improved to welcome a good start, coupled with the management change to restore market sentiment, the overall post-holiday ** is expected to continue. In the direction, the pre-holiday value defense is moderately to the growth of the boom and the adjustment of the small cap, and the trading opportunities of the over-fall are grasped.
1. There is still room for interpretation in the short-term over-fall: the management stabilizes the capital market and prescribes the right medicine, and the pressure on the capital side eases rapidly, triggering the over-falling**. Quantitative indicators point to the over-falling *** has just begun, and there is still room for interpretation in the short term. The issue of the independence of A-shares is being resolved, and the linkage between A-shares and other markets is expected to be re-strengthened. During the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and Chinese concept stocks are also expected to support A-shares.
Second, after the overfall, the medium-term is still the market: the market has come out of the overly pessimistic expectations, the objective and neutral investment research framework is returning, and the angle of mining investment cases will be more abundant. In 2024, there will be supply release pressure in the upstream, midstream and downstream, and the demand side will still rely on policy stimulus, and the basic upward elasticity will be limited. In 2025, the supply adjustment will be effective, the basic upward elasticity will be opened, and the opportunity for economic trend is expected to increase significantly. Maintain the judgment that the overall ** market in 2024 will gradually rise in 24Q4.
Third, the A-share mapping driven by U.S. technology stocks is at least a clue to the interpretation of the overfall, and the growth of science and technology is the direction of the overfall, and the short-term is expected to be realized. It focuses on investment opportunities in AI applications (AI is a short-term hot topic), AI computing power, AI PC, Huawei chain (Ascend, operating system), robotics, national defense and military industry (aviation OEMs), and pharmaceuticals. The medium-term risk-free rate is down, and high dividends are still the new floor assets. Steady-state high dividend and dynamic high dividend continue to be recommended.
There are two main types of liquidity shocks: (1) June 2015: high valuation + concentrated and rapid financial innovation before, in which case the risk was completely cleared for half a year. (2) June 2013, Q4 2018 and January-April 2022: low valuation + decline in fundamentals, there will be a liquidity shock at the end of the adjustment, in this case, once the risk is over, **will soon appear quarterly**, and even have a high probability of forming a historic bottom. After this liquidity shock, we believe that even according to the special case of 2015 (which lasted for half a year), there will be at least a monthly** similar to July 2015. And in the past 1 quarter, the maximum drawdown of the Wind All A Index has reached 20%, which is the largest since Q2 2016. Considering the position of the valuation and inventory cycle, it is possible to verify the improvement of real estate sales and the first quarter report of listed companies in March and April, and the probability of a quarter-to-quarter or even reversal is high.
Looking forward to the future market direction, first of all, the macro expectation difference index, which reflects the impact of the economic expectation difference on the direction of **, currently maintains a bullish view, and we believe that the current macroeconomic impact on ** is positive. Secondly, from the valuation level, market sentiment and capital flow dimensions to build the left side of the timing indicator system currently maintain a bullish view, there are currently 6 indicators triggering bullish signals, 2 indicators triggering bearish signals, the rest of the indicators are in a neutral state, we believe that the current valuation, sentiment, capital and other aspects are in a low state, the future is likely to appear mean and sentiment repair brought by the market upside. On the other hand, in the week before the Spring Festival, most of the QRS indicators, which reflect the relative strength of index resistance support, have issued bearish signals in several indexes tracked, and we believe that the top resistance of the market is stronger, or the ** that appears will also be more in the form of **. Finally, from the perspective of volume and energy signals, the composite score of most broad-based indices is at a general level, and we believe that the impact of trading volume on the future trend of the market is neutral. On the whole, we believe that A-shares are currently in a low state in terms of valuation, sentiment, funds, etc., and the trend is expected to end in the future, but the emergence of ** will also be more in the form of **. In terms of style rotation, we were relatively bullish on value styles in February.