Hello everyone, I'm Quantum Panda.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index after the Spring Festival 2 consecutive yang, counting the pre-holiday has been 5 consecutive yang, at present, Guo Jia team is still continuing to hold the big ass and has formed a certain market consensus, according to this momentum there is a certain chance to recover 3000 points, but more to guard against the problem of weaning and harvesting rice, the trading volume of the two cities has begun to shrink to 798.8 billion yuan, not sure when to start turning the head**, it is not recommended that everyone be impulsive.
Mi Ma unilaterally lowered the 5-year LPR by 25 basis points, 25 basis points is the largest single decline in history, indicating that the above has begun to be nervous and pay attention to, the intention of reducing the 5-year period is actually obvious, through the bank concessions to reduce the pressure on residents' housing loans, thereby stimulating consumption, and at the same time reducing the burden of buying houses to stimulate real estate, if it can't pull up, it will continue to reduce deposit rates and LPR this year.
Last year, Panda said that real estate is the winner and loser of the economy, but the real estate was not saved, the data was pulled up because of various means, regardless of whether these means of funds admit or not, at least the data has risen, from this year's situation, real estate is still the winner of the economy, but with reference to last year's experience, this winner is not so important except that it can not be left to rot.
Only one new share was issued on Wednesday this week, and it is not surprising that there will be no new shares issued next week, and it is said that because of the various crackdowns and reverse investigation methods after the new village chief took office, 300 of the more than 700 companies queuing up for IPO have voluntarily withdrawn their IPO applications.
Strict investigation of recommendations that are still in the queue, and thorough investigation of withdrawn recommendations.
The purpose of pushing the registration system is to use an invisible hand to optimize the efficiency of market resource allocation, and now it is messy and unspeakable for reasons that can not be saidPanda is in favor of reopening the super regulatory mode with both hands, and if you want to learn from the inaction of U.S. stocks, you must at least give the soil environment a good one, and various supporting systems such as fraudulent issuance penalties and delisting mechanisms will be run through.
Then into today's new content, the new stock research panda from 2021 to the present, although the accuracy rate is high, but it is indeed impossible to guarantee a certain accuracy, so it will also provide you with your own analysis ideas, you can make secondary decisions in combination with your own risk appetite.
The IPO analysis mainly revolves around the following four core elements, namely:Comparable industries and companies, developments, historical performance, market sentiment,For specific analysis and application, please refer to the text.
Analysis of IPO shares available for subscription on February 21, 2024
The full name is "Shanghai Longcheer Technology Co., Ltd.", whose main business is intelligent product R&D and design, manufacturing, and comprehensive services, and is an intelligent product ODM enterprise.
The company is deeply engaged in the ODM industry of smart products, and has formed a smart product layout covering smart phones, tablets and AIoT products.
Major customers include Xiaomi, Samsung Electronics, Company A, Lenovo, Honor, OPPO, Vivo, China Post Communications, China Unicom, China Mobile, China Telecom, Company B, etc.
a, smartphones.
The company occupies a leading position in the field of smart phone ODM IDH, and its main services include Xiaomi, Samsung Electronics, Company A, Lenovo, Honor, OPPO, Vivo, China Post Communications, China Unicom, China Mobile and other global leading brands, and has designed and manufactured "explosive" products with cumulative shipments of more than 10 million units such as Redmi 9 series and Redmi Note 10 series.
According to Counterpoint data, Longcheer Technology's smartphone shipments in 2022 reached 13.8 billion units, accounting for 28% of global smartphone ODM IDH shipments, ranking first in the world.
b, tablet.
At present, among the mainstream tablet PC brands, except for Apple, Microsoft, and TCL, which mainly use the EMS model, the rest of the companies mainly use the ODM model to carry out R&D, design, and manufacturing. The company is in a leading position in the field of tablet computer ODM, mainly providing ODM services for the tablet computers of company A, Lenovo and other head customers.
According to Counterpoint data, according to the statistics of ODM mode shipments, in 2021, the company's tablet shipments ranked third in the industry.
C, AIoT products.
In the era of the Internet of Everything, with the gradual maturity of artificial intelligence technology represented by voice recognition technology, health monitoring technology, image algorithm and enhancement algorithm technology, as well as 5G communication technology and Bluetooth 5With the continuous development of communication technology represented by 0 technology, new smart terminals, including smart watches, TWS headsets, VR AR products, automotive electronics and other equipment, have entered a period of rapid growth.
Longcheer Technology extends and builds a complete product ecosystem for brand customers, and has leading product ODM service capabilities in key AIoT categories such as smart watches and VR AR, and it is expected that AIoT categories will become an important growth of Longcheer Technology's future revenue**.
According to Counterpoint data, in 2021, the company mainly provided smart watch ODM services for Xiaomi, Company A, OPPO, and Honor, with watch shipments of about 8.1 million units, ranking fifth in the industry.
The business is mainly ODM of consumer electronic products, mainly including mobile phones, tablets and smart watches, and at the same time, in addition to ODM, it also provides product research and development services, but the revenue accounts for only about 3%, and there are many such companies in China, such as Huaqin, Luxshare, Goertek, these are ODM manufacturers, and Foxconn is mainly outside the mainland.
In terms of specific revenue, the main revenue comes from smartphones, accounting for more than 80% of revenue.
The corresponding industries are computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and the comparable listed companies are Huaqin Technology (603296), Wingtech Technology (600745), Industrial Fortune Union (601138), and Luxshare Precision (002475).
Issued on the main board of Shanghai, underwritten by Huatai United ** and jointly underwritten by Guotai Junan**, the market value of the new issue is 156 billion yuan, with a total market value of 120 after issuance9.3 billion yuan, issued **2600 yuan, the issue price-earnings ratio is 2413，pe-ttm18.16x, 14 for the top grid purchase00,000 yuan market value.
This compares to 25 for computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing5x, compared to Huaqin Technology's PE-TTM is 1517x, compared to Wingtech Technology PE-TTM is 2678x, compared to 16 for FII PE-TTM88x, compared to 19 for Luxshare Precision PE-TTM06x。
The operating income is expected to be 2,645,000 in 2023000,000 to 2,700,000000,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of -986% to -799%；
Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 50,300000000 to 52,0000000000000000000000000000039% to 378%。
The operating income in 2022 is 2,934,315150,000 yuan, revenue in 2021 is 2,459,58175 yuan, revenue in 2020 is 1,642,099150,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 3368%；
In 2022, the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company was 50,105200,000 yuan, and the net profit deducted from the non-attributable parent in 2021 was 36,615660,000 yuan, net profit of 11,650 in 2020780,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 10738%。
From 2020 to 2022, the revenue and profit growth rate will be high and relatively stable, and then in 2023, the revenue will decline, and the profit will be basically flat.
Referring to the prospectus, the main reason is that the smartphone market as a whole is still in a slow recovery stage and the previous base is high.
In terms of specific gross profit margins, the gross profit margins of the main business from 2020 to the first half of 2023 are: 46% and 1244%, the gross profit margin has fluctuated greatly, and at the same time, it will increase significantly in 2023.
Referring to the explanation of the prospectus, it is mainly due to changes in customer structure and fluctuations in upstream raw materials, and the significant increase in gross profit margin in 2023 is mainly due to the decline in raw materials and the exchange rate.
Compared with its peers, it is at an average level.
From the perspective of the company's fundamentals, the industry concept is average, and the performance is okay, mainly affected by the demand of the consumer electronics industry.
From the point of view of the issuance of **, the issuance of the main board of Shanghai, the issuance of ** is average, the issuance price-earnings ratio is slightly higher, and the PE-TTM is OK.
In the end, it is summarized as follows, so it's okay.
New rating: cautious, my operation: subscription.
Positive, the fundamentals and the development situation are better, and the risk of breakage is small.
Be cautious, there are certain problems with the fundamentals or development conditions, and the risk of breakage is average.
Give up, there are big problems with the fundamentals or development conditions, and the risk of breakage is greater.
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