Why do more and more people feel that money is hard to make? What is the biggest problem we have right now? I don't think it's because the house can't be sold, it's not because it's aging, it's because of the three major capital surpluses caused by the crisis of confidence. So what are the top three capital surpluses?
The first type of capital surplus is the industrial capital surplus. China's manufacturing industry is too deep in an all-round way, and the overall operating rate of many industries is less than 50%, or even 20%. We see that many cars are sold at a 50% discount, Citroen has a car that used to cost 230,000 yuan, and now it is not easy to sell for more than 100,000 yuan. The demand is insufficient, and the people have no money in their hands to produce things and cannot sell them, and there is overcapacity. From the traditional manufacturing industry to the consumer industry, and then to photovoltaic and new energy, it can be said that in addition to some industries that have not been liberalized, capital has overcapacity, overcapacity enterprises have insufficient orders, low corporate profit margins, and foreign capital has also withdrawn, the number of unemployed people will increase, demand will decrease, and overcapacity will be further strengthened.
The second type of capital surplus is the financial capital surplus. In the past 20 months, we have released more than 50 trillion yuan of liquidity, but enterprises do not invest, residents do not consume, lack of money, do not flow to the real economy, but idle in the financial system. For the full year of 2023, RMB loans increased by 2275 trillion, but the increase in RMB deposits was 2575 trillion yuan, deposits more than loans increased by nearly 3 trillion yuan. In the end, it means that the 3 trillion money cannot be lent out by the bank, and it has to be given interest, which is a surplus of financial capital.
The third type of capital surplus is the commercial capital surplus. Now the streets are full of shopping malls, pharmacies, hotels, and bubble tea shops, can you make money by inserting them again? For example, we had 420,000 pharmacies in 2012, and by the end of 2022, there were 620,000, and there were at least 4-5 pharmacies on a street. After talking about the three major capital surpluses, you can also understand why it is difficult to make money, so is there a way to solve it? I have 3 suggestions.
The first suggestion is to directly sprinkle money on low- and middle-income people, every month for five years, so that consumption and demand can rise, factory orders will increase, employment will follow, and the economy will live. The second suggestion is to do a good job and make it a reservoir of finance. In the past 30 years, the economy is driven by investment and real estate, so the bank will play the function of a reservoir, and the future will be driven by scientific and technological innovation.
The third suggestion is to increase the fertility rate. Only the real gold** maternity subsidy can increase the fertility rate. In fact, there is a reason behind the three major capital surpluses, which is aging, and the elderly are reluctant to spend money.