Chao News client reporter Xiao Nuannuan.
According to CCTV news, the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters said on January 7, local time, that the North Korean army continued to fire coastal artillery in the north of Yeonpyeong Island on the 7th.
Data map, the central area of Yanping Island Source: Xinhua International.
CCTV News previously reported that due to North Korea's coastal artillery firing into the western waters of South Korea, on January 5, local time, Baeknyeong Island and Yeonpyeong Island, located at the northern tip of the western waters of South Korea, issued evacuation orders to local residents. According to the information released by the South Korean side on the 5th, the North Korean army fired coastal artillery at Baeknyeong Island and Yeonpyeong Island from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the same day. South Korea's Joint Staff Headquarters said on the same day that North Korea fired more than 200 rounds of coastal artillery at the junction of the west coast, and the South Korean army and nearby residents were not affected by the artillery, and the South Korean side will take corresponding measures to deal with the provocation.
North Korea said it was responding to the South Korean military
According to Xinhua News Agency, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense announced on the 5th that South Korean military units stationed on the islands in the northwest of the country carried out sea shooting training that afternoon to deal with North Korea's live-fire behavior. Yonhap News Agency said 5** that according to the requirements of the South Korean military, the area of Yeonpyeong Island and Baeknyeong Island issued evacuation orders to local residents twice on the same day.
On January 5, residents of Yanping Island were taking emergency shelter Source: Xinhua News Agency.
According to CCTV News, citing the Korean Central News Agency, on January 5, the Korean People's Army mobilized a total of 47 artillery pieces to fire **192 shells in five areas.
According to Xinhua News Agency, citing the Korean Central News Agency, the General Staff of the Korean People's Army issued a report saying that North Korean troops conducted a naval live-fire exercise in the southwest waters of the country from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. local time on January 5.
The report said that the exercise was a natural countermeasure of the KPA to the actions of the ROK. The report accuses the South Korean military of conducting large-scale artillery fire and maneuver training around the inter-Korean border since the beginning of the year. In response to the evacuation order issued by South Korea to South Korean residents in the vicinity of Yeonpyeong Island and Baeknyeong Island, the report pointed out that the direction of North Korea's live firing did not have any impact on Yeonpyeong Island and Baeknyeong IslandIf the enemy provokes under the pretext of "responding", the KPA will carry out a tough countermeasure on an unprecedented scale.
According to CCTV, on January 4, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense announced the end of a seven-day South Korea-US New Year's Eve joint exercise. In Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, located near the military demarcation line between the two Koreas, the South Korean and US militaries dispatched 110 units of equipment, including main battle tanks, armored vehicles, wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, armored bridge-erecting vehicles, armored bulldozers, etc. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published an article on the 4th that severely criticized the behavior of the South Korean side, saying that Yoon Suk-yeol ** will continue to launch military provocations in 2023, continue to make provocative decisions at the beginning of 2024, and may launch various war plots on an unprecedented scale next, so this year is the most likely year for conflict between the two Koreas. The Korean Rodong Sinmun also published a commentary, accusing the South Korean side of "pushing up the atmosphere of war".
Screenshot of CCTV report.
On January 7, Xinhua News Agency quoted the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) as saying that North Korea fired artillery shells northwest of Yeonpyeong Island on the afternoon of the 6th, and the shells landed in the maritime buffer zone north of the "Northern Limit Line" in the western seas. In this regard, Kim Yo-jong, deputy minister of the DPRK Labor Commission, pointed out in the conversation that the DPRK military detonated explosives that simulated the sound of coastal artillery, and the DPRK's move was aimed at observing the reaction of the ROK. Kim Yo-jong said that the ROK side misjudged the sound of explosives as the sound of artillery and speculated that it was a provocation by shelling, and falsely claimed that the impact point of the bomb was in the maritime buffer zone north of the "Northern Limit Line" in the western seas. Kim Yo-jong also warned that even if the South Korean side made a small provocation, the North Korean army would immediately give it a "baptism of artillery."
According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Yonhap News Agency 7**, South Korea's Joint Staff Headquarters (Joint Staff) said that Kim Yo-jong's above statement is just a "low-level psychological warfare" against the South Korean military's detection capabilities. The Joint Staff said that if the DPRK launches a provocation against the territory and security of the ROK people, the ROK military will resolutely respond in accordance with the principle of "immediate, forceful, and countermeasures to the end."
The two Koreas are constantly at odds in the area around Yeonpyeong Island
Why did North Korea shell the area around Yeonpyeong Island?
Zhan Debin, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center and professor of the Department of International Relations at the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told Chao News reporters that South Korea has carried out artillery training in many places since January 1, including sea and land areas close to North Korea.
Screenshot of CCTV report.
Screenshot of CCTV report.
In addition, ** reported that on December 30, 2023, the 9th plenary meeting of the 8th ** Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) was closed, and the General Secretary of the WPK Kim Jong-un attended the meeting and made a report, Kim Jong-un said that "it is necessary to redefine the position on North-South relations and the policy of reunification", and that inter-Korean relations "are no longer homo-ethnic relations" but completely hostile relations.
Professor Bi Yingda, director of the Center for Korean Studies at Shandong University, pointed out that the move is not only a response to South Korea, but also a sign of North Korea's attitude towards South Korea in 2024, and at the same time can also put pressure on South Korea and the United States.
Bi Yingda said that Yeonpyeong Island has always been a tangled point of dispute between the DPRK and the ROK, and the two sides have not been able to reach a consensus on the issue of demarcating the boundary in the western sea area since the end of the Korean War.
The "Five Islands of the West Sea" refers to the five offshore islands located off the west coast of North Korea and South Korea, which are actually under the jurisdiction of South Korea, including Yeonpyeong Island, Sumiddo Island, Baeknyeong Island, Greater Qingdao Island, and Little Qingdao Island.
After the end of the Korean War, the ROK demarcated the maritime demarcation line between the two countries called the "Northern Limit" between the "five islands in the West Sea" and the western coast of the DPRK, which the DPRK did not recognize.
Screenshot of CCTV report.
According to CCTV reports, on June 15, 1999, a naval battle between South Korea and North Korean naval vessels killed several North Korean naval soldiers, one of the North Korean ships was hit by artillery shells and sank, and several others were damaged by artillery shells. On the morning of June 29, 2002, a South Korean high-speed boat was sunk in the waters off Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, killing four people, including the captain, 19 wounded and one missing. A North Korean guard boat was hit**.
Screenshot of CCTV report.
According to Xinhuanet, on the afternoon of November 23, 2010, the two Koreas fired artillery shells at each other in the waters off Yeonpyeong Island, a fierce exchange of fire rarely seen since the Korean War. 2 military and 2 civilians on the South Korean side died;The North Korean side is unknown. Both sides accuse each other of provocations. After the shelling, the number of ROK troops stationed on Yeonpyeong Island and nearby islands increased from about 5,000 to 120,000 people, and more artillery was armed.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have intensified
According to CCTV, on January 8, Lee Sung-joon, director of the communiqué office of the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters, said at a press conference that North Korea had violated the "9.19 South Korea-North Korea Military Agreement" signed by the two Koreas in 2018 more than 3,600 times, and carried out shelling in the western waters for three consecutive days. As a result, the exclusion zone (buffer zone) for the conduct of hostilities will cease to exist. Lee Seong-joon said that the ROK military will normally carry out shooting and training activities in the forbidden zone of hostilities at sea and on land.
Screenshot of CCTV report.
What impact will this shelling incident have on the situation on the Korean Peninsula?
The two experts pointed out that although the shelling did not trigger a large-scale direct conflict between the two Koreas, it made a modest start for inter-Korean relations in 2024, once again highlighted the tense and hostile relations between the two Koreas, and showed that a conflict between the two Koreas could occur at any time, in fact, it directly exacerbated the tension on the Korean Peninsula and planted a mine for inter-Korean relations.
Zhan Debin pointed out that "at present, both the DPRK and the ROK are relatively restrained, and the shells are falling in the middle waters;North Korea has also repeatedly stressed that this is military training and does not pose a threat to Yeonpyeong Island, which shows that North Korea only wants to achieve a warning and deterrent effect, and does not want this matter to escalate into a military conflict, and the same is true for South Korea. ”
In analyzing the situation on the Korean Peninsula, both experts emphasized the special nature of 2024: 2024 is a critical year for the DPRK to promote the implementation of the national defense construction goals of the Eighth National Congress of the Workers' Party, and the DPRK also announced that it will launch three satellites to continue to increase its nuclear weapons construction;At the same time, it is also necessary to put into practice Kim Jong-un's stated attitude toward South Korea. South Korea and the United States, South Korea, the United States and Japan will also hold several large-scale joint military exercises, as well as important agendas such as the election of members of the South Korean National Assembly, the United States**, and the summit of the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Bi Yingda pointed out that Yoon Suk-yeol** is likely to play the North Korean card in order to gain popular support in the parliamentary election, and to deal with North Korea more toughly, and even take the initiative to provoke. "This will not only attack the DPK's political proposition of dialogue with North Korea, but will also serve as an opportunity to divert the attention of the South Korean people from domestic contradictions such as the economic downturn to the North Korean issue, killing two birds with one stone." ”
In this context, Zhan Debin believes that both the DPRK and the ROK will be highly tense and will take military measures to deter the other side. Given the strong hostility between the two sides, the "provocation-response" response model is likely to exacerbate tensions in bilateral relations.
According to Bi Yingda's analysis, there are considerable contingencies and uncertainties in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. If the two Koreas cross the line or create a force when they retaliate against each other, the Korean Peninsula is likely to escalate the conflict in the absence of an effective conflict management mechanism.
What is the future of the situation on the Korean Peninsula?
Bi Yingda said that the top priority at the moment is for China, the United States, the DPRK, the ROK and other countries to establish a consensus on the situation on the Korean Peninsula and work together to form a mechanism for managing contradictions and conflicts on the Korean Peninsula, at least to ensure that there is no large-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula and avoid the risk of war.
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