**: Global Market Broadcast.
In the early morning of the 9th, Beijing time, U.S. stocks were basically flat at midday on Thursday, and the S&P 500 index tried to break through the 5,000-point mark. The market continues to focus on U.S. earnings and the Fed's policy outlook. U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week. A legendary market leader warned that the S&P 500 could fall below 3,500 points by **30%.
The Dow fell 10031 points, a decrease of 026% at 3857705 o'clock;The Nasdaq rose 3320 points, an increase of 021% at 1578984 points;The S&P 500 fell 440 points, a decrease of 009% to 499066 points.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow hitting its 10th all-time high this year and the S&P 500 approaching the 5,000-point mark, also hitting an all-time high. Meta Platforms, a big tech company, surged more than 3% on the day, while Nvidia and Microsoft hit record highs by about 2% each.
What drives U.S. stocks** is the increase in investor confidence. Most of the fourth-quarter earnings reports that have been released so far have been stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that a healthy economy will continue to drive corporate profit growth.
In addition, the U.S. on Wednesday sold a record $42 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds with lower-than-expected yields, easing investors' nervousness after the recent period. The U.S. Treasury will also bid $25 billion of 30-year Treasuries on Thursday, which analysts see as a bigger test because interest rate risks are longer.
Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note: "The 'three big factors' that have been driving *** since November are still providing upward momentum for **: falling inflation, a monetary pivot and the resilience of corporate earnings." ”
But as the S&P 500 approached 5,000, legendary market prognosticator Gary Shilling warned that the index could fall to a three-year low of 30%. He believes that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession this year, and the buzz around Bitcoin and AI is grossly exaggerated.
Over the past 40 years, Shilling has made the right decisions about market movements many times.
In an interview, Shilling said: "The current ** is very expensive and very distorted. He also likened the huge weight of the "Big 7" in the indexes to the "Nifty Fifty" in the 70s of the 20th century, and the "final value" of Kodak and Polaroid, for example.
"When people focus on a very small part of the project, they're essentially saying that the other parts aren't appealing, which means you might get stuck in the area," Shilling said. ”
Shilling was Merrill Lynch's first chief economist and founded his own economic advisory and investment advisory firm in 1978. He said the S&P 500 could fall below 3,500 points, its lowest level since late 2020.
The S&P 500 was 20% in 2022, but 24% last year, climbed another 4% this year, and is now hitting the 5,000-point mark.
Halfway through the U.S. earnings season, investors continue to report from a number of companies.
* Giant Disney beat earnings in the fiscal fourth quarter and announced cost-cutting measures while raising its guidance.
Shares of chipmaker and design firm Arm jumped after the company reported earnings that beat expectations and gave upbeat profits**.
On Thursday's economic data, U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims last week was 2180,000, estimated at 220,000, and the previous value was 2240 thousand. The number of people applying for jobless benefits in the United States fell to 187 last week10,000; It is estimated at 18750,000, the previous value was 18980 thousand.
Analysts said U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the job market remains strong despite the recent surge in layoffs. Jobless claims have changed little from the same period last year, despite recent high-profile layoffs, many of which are in the tech and ** sectors. Employers are generally wary of layoffs due to hiring difficulties during and after the pandemic. Economists also point to higher worker productivity (with an annualized growth rate of more than 3% for three consecutive quarters) and lower labor costs as other factors that encourage companies to retain employees.
After the release of the initial jobless claims data last week, the Federal Reserve's Barkin said that the economic data was outperforming in all areas and there was no need to rush to cut interest rates.
Markets are closely watching U.S. economic data as the Federal Reserve (Fed) says it needs more confidence to support a rate cut and is looking for more evidence of a pullback in inflation. Recently, a number of Fed leaders** said that more confidence is needed to support the decision to cut interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said they would like to see "a few more months" of inflation data before cutting rates, and he believes that two or three rate cuts in 2024 may be appropriate.
Boston Fed President Collins also said that more evidence is being sought to show that inflation will be sustainably consistent with the 2% target, followed by a rate cut, although this step is likely to be implemented "later this year".
"We're not looking for better inflation numbers, we're just looking for more inflation data around the 2% level," Kashkari said on Wednesday. If we can see a few more months of such data, it will give us a lot of confidence. ”
This Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide an annual update on the seasonally adjusted factors for monthly inflation data.
This adjustment has not received much attention in the past, but this time Wall Street and economists are very concerned because a year ago, the consumer** index (CPI), which usually has a small correction, was revised so much that it casts doubt on the progress of headline inflation.
As the Fed struggles to find more evidence that they have eased the pressure before committing to rate cuts, the risk of another sharp correction this time is unnerved for policymakers and investors.
A Jan. 16 speech by Fed Governor Waller drew attention to the data and prompted investment banks to publish a series of research reports on the topic.
Waller said in his speech at the time: "Recall that a year ago, when inflation looked like it was coming down rapidly, the annual update of seasonal factors erased those advances. I hope these amendments confirm the progress we are seeing, but good policies are based on data, not hope. ”
Focus**. According to Tesla's internal documents, according to the latest effective wage scale, the minimum hourly wage for workers in its U.S. factories is $22 and the maximum is $39.
Tesla announced a pay rise for factory workers in December. On January 8 this year, the salary standard officially came into effect. Under the new standard, Tesla divides the pay scale into three criteria based on the cost of living in each region. The Austin, Texas and Sparks, Nevada, plants have the lowest pay, while the Fremont and Palo Alto plants in California have the highest pay.
Microsoft said it will support the development of voice-based generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications through a partnership with Indian startup SAROVAM AI. Microsoft said in a statement that Sarvam AI is building a GenAI model for Indian languages and contexts and will now create its solution on Microsoft cloud services, including Azure OpenAI Service.
A spokesperson for Amazon said Thursday that Spain's High Court had suspended the 19.4 billion euros (about 2.4 billion euros$0.9 billion) pending appeal from both companies.
Amazon said the court's decision to stop payments was part of the appeal process. Amazon said in July 2023 that the number of discounts on Apple devices on Amazon** has increased due to an agreement with Apple.
Google announced on Thursday that it is rebranding its AI chatbot Bard to Gemini. At the same time, Google has also launched a paid version of Gemini with stronger reasoning capabilities to better compete with Microsoft and OpenAI.
Google says U.S. customers can now get $19 per monthIt costs $99 to access Gemini Advanced, which includes the more powerful Ultra 10 AI models. At the same time, subscribers will get 2TB of cloud storage (normally $9. per month.)$99) and will soon be available in Gmail and Google Office with Gemini.
The Bank of New York, which has been in the spotlight lately, said it had stable deposits at $83 billion and had enough resources to deal with any possible outflow of uninsured deposits. New York Community Bank shares have lost more than 50 percent since last week's fourth-quarter earnings surprise loss was reported.
AstraZeneca announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the financial report, AstraZeneca's Q4 revenue was 120200 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 72%, exceeding market expectations; Core earnings per share were 1$45, beating market expectations by 076 USD.
For the full year of 2023, AstraZeneca's total revenue was 458$1.1 billion, up 6% year-over-year, but COVID-19 drug revenue was down 37$3.6 billion. Excluding COVID-19 drugs, total revenue increased 15% year-over-year and product sales increased 14% year-over-year.
SoftBank's chip design company ARM's chip design company achieved both revenue and operating profit growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, with two figures of 8$2.4 billion and 3$3.8 billion, all higher than the values given by analysts.
Philip Morris International, the world's largest tobacco company, on Thursday announced its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations and warned that its 2024 earnings would also fall short of market expectations. In the fiscal fourth quarter, net revenue from its IQOS heated tobacco products surpassed Marlboro cigarettes, while cigarette shipments fell by 19%。
The company's net profit in the fiscal fourth quarter increased from 23 percent in the year-ago quarter$800 million fell to $21$900 million, EPS figures from 1$54 down to 1$41. Adjusted profit was 1. per share$36, below the factset consensus estimate of $1 per share$45.
The Disney Company announces a $3 billion buyback plan and raises its dividend.
General Motors said on Wednesday that it plans to spend $19 billion over the next decade or so to source key materials needed for electric vehicle batteries from LG Chem. Under a new agreement, LG Chem will supply more than 500,000 tonnes of cathode materials, including nickel, cobalt, manganese and aluminum, to GM from 2026 to 2035. These** will be enough to meet the needs of 5 million electric vehicles with a range of more than 300 miles.
Dirk McMahon, 64, president and chief operating officer, will retire on April 1, 2024, United Health Insurance Company said in a regulatory filing. He has served as CEO in different divisions of UnitedHealth and was appointed to his current role in February 2021. At that time, UnitedHealth also announced that Andrew Witty would succeed D**id Wichmann, who had been at the helm of the company for more than three years, as the company's chief executive officer.