On February 19, the first day of the New Year's opening, due to the influence of SORA, AI-related companies have been widely concerned, and SORA concept stocks and CPO optical modules are in the lead.
Multimodal models such as Wensheng** require higher data transmission rate and processing capacity due to the need to accurately and quickly retrieve data in a very short time to respond.
Therefore, Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, Cambridge Technology, Yuanjie Technology, etc. are in 1Companies with a layout of 6T and CPO optical modules have been repeatedly mentioned.
In addition, there is news that the B100 chip of the tech giant Nvidia is about to be launchedWill come standard with 16T optical module, Zhongji InnoLight and Tianfu Communication, as NVIDIA's leading businessmen, have also released their performance, and the performance of manufacturers is also relatively strong.
However, in this wave of heat, there are relatively few companies that really have technology, products, and performance support, and often the popularity of companies with a little bit of edge will rise, and they are basically short-lived and will be adjusted soon.
In the past few days, Tozai Technology seems to have hitched a ride on AI, so is it real or pure?
We all know the importance of computing power for artificial intelligence, so NVIDIA's computing power chips are so in demand, and domestic Huawei, Cambrian, Haiguang Information, etc. are pinned on high hopes, so there is computing power leasing and the construction of supercomputing centers.
In order to achieve high-speed computing, every link must exert force, AI server is the basic carrier and hardware foundation of the computing network, and printed circuit board (PCB) is the carrier of electronic components in the serverPCB is required to have high frequency, high speed, low consumption and other performance
Copper clad laminate is the substrate of PCB, and in the cost composition of copper clad laminatesThe cost of resin accounts for 261%, second only to copper foil, is also a consumable that determines the performance of copper clad laminates.
However, the traditional epoxy resin cannot meet the requirements of AI servers for high-frequency, high-speed, good conductivity and low consumption of copper clad laminatesResins such as PPO, maleimide, and benzoxazine are more suitable
Tozai Technology's self-developed special resins for high-frequency and high-speed printed circuit boards such as bismaleimide have been used in global copper clad laminate leaders such as Shengyi Technology, Taiguang Electronics, Taiyao Technology, Doosan Electronics, and Panasonic Electric.
And through them, indirectly applied at scaleNvidia, Huawei, Apple, Intel, etcandopenaiAI servers.
There is still a lot of room for growth in the demand for AI servers in the future, and according to authoritative organizations**, global AI server shipments in 2022 will be about 8550,000 units, and there will be AI servers worldwide by 2026Hope to reach 23690,000 unitsThe compound annual growth rate from 2022 to 2026 is as high as 29%.
Therefore, the demand for high-speed resin is still continuing, bringing growth momentum to upstream raw material companies, and at the same time, Tozai Technology has completed 3,700 tons of bismaleimide resin production capacity, which is a high-speed resinThe company with the largest production capacity in China
Judging from this logic, it is reasonable to say that the popularity of Tozai Technology has risen.
However, high-speed resins alone are not enough to see the growth of the company's performance, and the electronic materials business where the resin is located is only one of the company's many businesses.
So, what are the highlights of Tozai Technology in the future?
In addition to electronic materials, the company's insulating materials (including new energy and electrical insulation materials) and optical film materials business are also not to be underestimated, with a high proportion of revenue and many years of deep cultivation.
First of all, the insulating materials business.
The company's insulating materials mainly include functional polypropylene film, polyester film, etc., which are widely used in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, electrical and electrical and many other fields.
On the one hand, although the growth rate of new photovoltaic installations is declining, the annual new installed capacity will continue to rise in the next few years, and there will still be a demand for insulating materials.
On the other hand, new energy vehicles are a relatively large industry with greater certainty and growth, and the sales of new energy vehicles will be tens of millions in the next few years, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will be by 2026It is expected to reach 14.44 million units, with a penetration rate of more than 50%.
In addition, power equipment such as power capacitors, electric locomotive capacitors, and electrical equipment capacitors will increase the demand for insulating materials.
Tozai Technology started with insulating materials and has a pivotal position in the insulating material market, and it is also an electrical insulating materialThe most complete varietymanufacturers, the prospects for this business are still relatively certain.
Secondly, the optical film material business.
Optical film products are mainly optical-grade polyester base films, which are deployed in the fields of display optical base films, MLCC release films, PCB anti-corrosion dry films, and automotive films.
Among them, most of the base film sales are closely related to the shipments of the consumer electronics market, and the global demand for mobile phones and computers will be weak in 2022, and the company's optical film business revenue will also decrease.
However, starting from the third quarter of 2023, the consumer electronics market will gradually recover, inventory digestion will basically end, and according to IDC**, global mobile phone and computer sales will maintain single-digit growth in 2024.
Tozai Technology has established stable cooperative relations with Shanjin Optoelectronics, Hengmei Optoelectronics, Sanlipu and other manufacturers in the optical film businessIt is expected to return to growth territory
From 2018 to 2022, the company's revenue increased from 164.5 billion yuan increased significantly to 36400 million yuan, especially in 2021, benefiting from the simultaneous expansion of insulating materials, optical film materials and electronic materialsRevenue has risen to a new level
The net profit after deduction also increased from only 0 in 2018100 million yuan, an increase to 24.9 billion yuan,4 years over 249 times
In the first three quarters of 2023, affected by the global economic downturn, the revenue increased less, and the non-net profit even declined slightly, but a number of the company's insulation materials and electronic materials products will increase rapidly due to the ramp-up stage of production capacity, and the company's performance will be greatly improved.
Finally, to sum up.
With the development of artificial intelligence, the company's electronic materials business is expected to expand rapidly.
In addition, downstream consumer electronics out of the recovery stage, new energy vehicles out of the fast lane of rapid growth, photovoltaic demand will continue, the company as an upstream source materials company will not disappoint.
The above is only for the analysis of listed companies and does not constitute specific investment advice.
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**: Flying Whale Investment Research