The Shanghai Composite Index won seven consecutive gains, setting a record for the longest consecutive gains in three and a half years.
The three major A-share stock indexes opened mixed on February 22. In early trading, the index diverged, the pattern of Shanghai strength and Shenzhen reappeared, and the index remained in decline. Indices continued to diverge in the afternoon, but the three major stock indexes joined hands at the end of the session**.
For this round, Zhao Wei, an analyst at Founder, emphasized that the construction funds at the bottom of the market and the bottom of the policy are not in the market institutions, nor in the market institutions, but in the large institutions represented by the "national team", so the market bottom is very solid and accurate. The "V" shaped reversal has been established, whether it is for "stable growth" or for the capital market, the rhythm and intensity of policy release will continue to exceed expectations, and "policies that exceed expectations will inevitably bring more than expected".
Wang Nan, an investment consultant of SDIC, believes that at present, A-shares have been seven consecutive yang, and although there has been obvious selling pressure in the past three days, it can be resolved quickly, and it has staged a short squeeze to stimulate market confidence.
* Strong upward trend along the 5-day line, the possibility of continuing to continue to be positive. Another brokerage investment consultant said that combined with the bald head and bare feet of the yang line pattern on Thursday, Friday does not rule out the potential for further upward movement out of the Balianyang and breaking through the 3,000-point integer mark, as well as making up for the 3,022-point gap.
AI-related sectors were the top gainers.
As of Feb. 22**, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 127% at 298836 points; The STAR 50 Index rose 096% at 76238 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 076% at 904375 points; The GEM index rose 031% at 175787 points.
The surging news noticed that the Shanghai Composite Index came out of the seventh consecutive yang. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1059%；The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1355%；The GEM index rose by 1205%。
From the perspective of the disk, on February 22, the industry sector rarely took full stage, and state-owned cloud concept stocks ushered in a collective outbreak. The direction of high dividends is strong again, with the coal and oil industries leading the rise, and China Shenhua and CNOOC hitting new highs; AI computing power, SORA, liquid-cooled servers, lithography machines, and Huawei concept stocks are active.
Judging from the cumulative performance of the past 7 trading days (February 6 to February 22), AI-related sectors have the highest gains. Specifically, wind statistics show that the computer interval rose the most, reaching 228%；211%, electronic up 189%；Social services, national defense and military industry increased respectively. 8%。
According to Great Wisdom VIP, there are a total of 4,580 *** 611 *** in the two cities and the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there are 155 *** flat. A total of 125 stocks in the two cities and the Beijing Stock Exchange rose by more than 9%, and none fell by more than 9%.
Regarding the main characteristics of Thursday's market, Zhao Wei concluded that the amount of energy has shrunk, structural differentiation still exists, the money-making effect continues to improve, the money-losing effect is reduced, and the "eighty-two" phenomenon is still the same.
The number of 96 on Thursday is not less, but it is significantly reduced compared with 155 the day before, indicating that the market still has inertia to do long, but compared with the previous two days, there are signs of weakening. The above-mentioned brokerage investment adviser said that the market sentiment remains high, and it is possible to hold shares but it is not suitable for excessive chasing operations.
In terms of northbound funds, the transaction on Thursday was a net **36900 million yuan, the second consecutive trading day of net inflow. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Connect net **255.2 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect net **113.8 billion yuan.
In terms of active **, northbound funds on Thursday had more net ** Kweichow Moutai (600519), CATL (300750), Ping An Bank (000001), Industrial Fortune Union (601138), BYD (002594), and the net ** amount was 62.9 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, 22.3 billion yuan, 19.2 billion yuan. The net sellers of northbound funds were Zhongji Innolight (300308), China Merchants Bank (600036), and ZTE (000063), with a net selling amount of 1900 million yuan, 0500 million yuan, 0400 million yuan.
Judging from the handicap information, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly lower, and then rushed up and fell, and then it was all the way up, from the perspective of the comparison of long and short forces, the overall advantage of the multi-party forces, but the short side always has a concentrated sell-off. Wang Nan analyzed.
Wang Nan said that unlike the large-level index ** at the beginning of 2019, this wave in 2024** is more of a bailout**, and if you want a larger level**, you need to have economic data support and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. "The Shanghai Composite Index may form a ** at 3,000 points, but at present, the funds are still there, the market risk is controllable, and it is recommended to continue to hold shares. ”
*After the intraday impact of 3000 points, it will be **increased.
Zhao Wei said that from a technical point of view, after the low opening on Thursday, the intraday once rushed higher, followed by a rapid fall, completed the intraday reshuffle, and then went higher, with the highest point, and showed a trend of price rise and contraction, the 90-day line recovered, the half-year line near the counterpressure, the 5th ** accelerated upward, the short and medium term, the volume and price divergence of the price increase, coupled with the psychological pressure of the integer mark near 3000 points, after the intraday impact of 3000 points, will increase.
The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 15-minute MACD indicator golden cross, ** intraday will continue to rush higher, challenging the pressure near 2994 points, if the intraday breakthrough of 2994 points in the short term, the 15-minute and 30-minute MACD indicators will diverge, ** will increase, but the 60-minute MACD indicator will be re-strengthened, and the short-term volatility will continue to rise after the increase. Zhao Wei analyzed.
Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is still subject to the 120-day **, while the Shenzhen Component Index is facing 60-day pressure. However, Liang Jiaming, an analyst at Industrial Securities International, believes that in the current market bullish atmosphere, banks, food and beverages and pharmaceuticals may pull the index to break through the pressure on a certain day, and Qilianyang cannot be judged to be the end of the upward trend at present, but may only be the middle game of the policy to support the market, and maintain positive expectations for crossing the 3000 defense point and standing firm on the annual line.
Comprehensive technical analysis, Zhao Wei also admitted that although the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrank again, forming a volume and price divergence trend, but the market is very strong, so the market is reluctant to sell, and the market will continue to rise, challenging the pressure above 3000 points.
But around 3000 points of technical pressure is larger, intraday will run around 3000 points, the real pressure level of ** between 3053 points - 3200 points, at present, the trend of continuing the 'V' shaped reversal will not change, after the intraday short-term momentum, will challenge the pressure near 3053 points. Zhao Wei said.
Reversal or **?
* After the daily "seven consecutive yangs", which is a rare continuous rise in A-shares in recent years, then, can ** smoothly return to the "3000 point era"?
Zhao Wei analyzed that as the bottom area of the ** city that will last for two years from 2022 to 2023, 3000 points were effectively broken for the first time in December last year, as can be seen from the figure, after December last year, ** in early January 2024 again to challenge the pressure around 3000 points but failed to effectively achieve, in a sense, for an effective breakdown of 3000 points, a "challenge failure", it is a fact that 3000 points have become the top area of the next stage, This key point is not only related to the technical side, but also related to emotions and confidence.
Throughout the development process of A-shares, it has become one of the main laws of the A-share market to lure long above 3,000 points and short to lure short below 3,000 points. At this time, the market is very controversial about the reversal or **, the closer it is to the integer mark, the more controversial the voice, and ** is hesitating and controversy out of the short type**. Zhao Wei also emphasized that the construction funds of the market bottom and policy bottom are not in the market and not in the market institutions, but in the large institutions represented by the "national team", so the market bottom is very solid and accurate, and there is no doubt.
The 'V' shaped reversal we proposed in our previous report has been established, whether it is for 'stable growth' or for the capital market, the pace and intensity of policy release will continue to exceed expectations, so policies that exceed expectations will inevitably bring more than expected**. At this stage, the market is rebuilt, confidence is rebuilt, and the first is restarted, and the 'triple' determines that a new round of reversal bull market has arrived. Zhao Wei said.
Standing at the current point in time, how should investors allocate it? Wu Jiaxiang, senior investment consultant of GF**, suggested that the short-term artificial intelligence direction is repeatedly active, and transactional customers can pay attention to trading opportunities in this direction. At the medium-term allocation level, we will maintain the rebound of the economy, such as shipbuilding, satellite communications, sea breeze, semiconductors, innovative drugs, panels, etc., as well as dividend assets with medium and long-term incremental funds, such as finance, coal, hydropower, highways, white electricity, etc., both of which combine the allocation idea of offense and defense, and at the same time combine the annual report performance increase and the value revaluation of central enterprises to select stocks. (The Paper).