2024 Chinese New Year outlook
In 2024, the finances of cities, counties and townships will be tighter because of the huge debts of local governments; Because there are too many people, because the organization is huge, the huge "capitation fee" will become the last "straw" that breaks the camel's back.
There is no way, it is easy to increase the number of personnel, but it is difficult to streamline.
Two years ago, some members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) called for no reduction in the number of people who could not afford to control the organization and support them, but now it seems that this is not a problem that can be solved in a day or two.
A comrade I know said that the local performance salary of their county-level ** civil servants has not been paid for 3 years. In the past, it was incomplete, but now it is simply stopped because there is no money.
At present, there are too many personnel in the party, government, and mass organs at the county and township levels, and it is said that the workload is too small to be busy, but a lot of work is formalistic, and it is better not to do it at all.
In many townships and towns with which I am familiar, there were more than 30 civil servants and career personnel before 2004, and the population of the whole township was about 20,000 at that time.
These towns are still living in these towns, and the population is decreasing. However, the number of civil servants and career staff has increased to about 160 to 180, a sixfold increase in 20 years.
It is conceivable that the expenditure of these "capitation fees" cannot be coped with by the county and township at all.
Civil servants are allocated by the government, while career staff are paid from local revenues.
During the 2023 National "Two Sessions", Jia Qingguo, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a professor at Peking University, proposed:
1. Reduce unnecessary institutions and personnel, and greatly reduce seconded staff and auxiliary management personnel.
2. Significantly reduce non-essential public institutions, such as various associations and societies.
3. Clean up the institutions that have completed their tasks.
Professor Jia Qingguo conservatively analyzed all levels of the country through official data** Nearly 80 million people are financially supported, which does not include a large number of supernumerary personnel, such as auxiliary police.
For every 10 workers in the country, one financial spender is supported, which is the highest in the world.
Professor Jia Qingguo pointed out that at present, the expenses used to support the financial support of personnel have accounted for about 40 percent of the fiscal revenue.
The law society of a county with which the author is familiar basically does not have more workload. In 2017, there was only one full-time staff member in charge, which was an internal body of the Political and Legal Committee. Today, it has become an independent organization at the level of a full section, and the number of civil servants has increased to eight.
This is the main reason why the county and township finances are tight, and now they can't sell land, and there is no more land to sell. There is no problem with the part of local revenue that depends on the first fiscal transfer, while the part of local expenditure must be "money tight".
When I wrote this article, I received a push message on my mobile phone: "The second phase of the subway construction project in Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, was rejected by the state because the city's local debt ratio reached 900 and did not meet the regulations."
The Harbin Municipal Bureau of Letters and Calls confirmed the news when answering questions from netizens. ”
After verification, Harbin's general public budget revenue in 2023 is 313100 million yuan, which is still an increase of 19 over the previous year4, and the total local debt of Harbin City by December 31, 2023 is 3253500 million yuan.
In other words, Harbin City will use all its fiscal revenue to repay its debts, and it will take 10 years to repay it. It is obviously impossible for all civil servants and career staff to stop funding and all expenses for 10 years. Stopping operations, police not working, schools not opening, this cannot be achieved in any country.
Harbin City's local debt is not the largest in the country, and the situation in the whole country can be imagined.
Therefore, it is right that the state does not approve the construction of the second phase of the subway project in Harbin.
The tram project in Tianshui City, Gansu Province, which was once named, has an annual loss of 38.4 million yuan.
After the first phase of the tram project in Tianshui City, which has a population of only 3.72 million, it carries 800,000 passengers annually and earns 1.6 million yuan, but the annual operating cost needs 40 million yuan and the net loss is 38.4 million yuan.
Due to lack of money, the second phase of the project was only halfway through, and the construction had to be stopped. Or because of the lack of money, it can't be demolished even if it wants to, and it has become a big financial burden for the city.
It is foreseeable that in the coming period, the financial situation in many localities will be very severe, and the idea of living a tight life should be firmly established.