BYD (002594.)HK) announced its 2023 results forecast on the evening of January 29, and investors naturally want to compare it with Tesla (TSLA), which has already announced its full-year results on January 25.
BYD's annual sales exceeded 3.02 million units, far exceeding Tesla's 1.81 million units; However, BYD's net profit is about 30 billion yuan, less than Tesla's 108$8.2 billion (non-GAAP) at half level.
In addition, due to net profit differences, valuation differences, risk appetite and other reasons, according to the latest ** price, Tesla's market value is more than 8 times that of BYD.
Since 2023, Tesla and BYD have taken turns to stimulate sales by cutting prices. In terms of product line differences, BYD has many product categories, and will strive to promote more high-end products in the future; Tesla has only a handful of models, and its product line is expanding.
* Battle"Affect gross margin.
On the evening of January 29, BYD released its 2023 performance forecast, showing that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 29 billion yuan to 31 billion yuan, an increase of 74% year-on-year46% to 8649%；It is estimated that the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be 27.4 billion yuan to 29.7 billion yuan, an increase of 75% year-on-year22% to 8992%；Basic earnings per share was 9$98 to $1067 yuan, compared with 5 in the same period last year$71 shares.
BYD said that in 2023, the new energy vehicle industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, and the company's new energy vehicle sales will hit a record high, further consolidating its leading position as the world's No. 1 new energy vehicle sales. Despite the fiercer competition in the industry, the company has achieved significant improvement in profitability and demonstrated strong resilience by virtue of the continuous improvement of brand power, the rapid growth of overseas sales, the continuous expansion of scale advantages and the strong cost control ability of the industrial chain.
According to its previously released production and sales report, BYD's cumulative annual sales volume was 302440,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 62%.
According to the research report released by Soochow ** on January 30, BYD's total revenue is expected to be 590 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of about 39%, and the comprehensive gross profit margin is 1959%, compared to 17 for the whole of 202204%。
On January 25, Tesla announced its results showing that Tesla's total annual revenue in 2023 will reach 967$7.3 billion, an increase of 1879%, mainly due to the rapid increase in Tesla's new car deliveries worldwide. Net profit 149$9.7 billion, an increase of 19% year-over-year (including a one-time non-cash tax gain of $5.9 billion); Non-GAAP net income was 108US$8.2 billion, down 23% year-on-year.
After Tesla announced its 2023 results, its stock price fell 12% during the U.S. stock market session on January 2513%。
In 2023, Tesla will deliver a total of 1.81 million new cars worldwide, a year-on-year increase of 38%, which is less than BYD's 186 in 2022850,000 units sold.
On January 6, 2023, Tesla's domestic models will be reduced in price, of which the starting price of the Model 3 will be reduced to 22990,000 yuan, the starting price of the Model Y is reduced to 25990,000 yuan, the prelude to the annual automobile war was fully opened. For the full year of 2023, Tesla's gross margin is 182%, up from 25 in 20226% down 735 percentage points.
According to the first Shanghai** research report, Tesla's gross profit margin has declined mainly due to three reasons: Tesla has opened multiple rounds of price reduction sales to achieve the established sales target; The Berlin and Texas factories are still in the ramp-up period, and the production efficiency continues to improve; In the context of continuous interest rate hikes in the United States, consumers' car purchase costs have not actually benefited much because of price cuts, so they need cheaper cars, which also hints at the possibility of continuous ** adjustment in the future.
Fu Wenhao, a researcher at cheese**, told the first financial reporter that judging from the financial reports or performance forecasts recently disclosed by the two companies, BYD's net profit for bicycles will decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the main factor may come from the impact of terminal price cuts on product gross profit in the fourth quarter. At the same time, Tesla's earnings in the fourth quarter of 2023 were also affected, due to the price reduction in the North American market on the one hand, which affected the gross profit margin, and on the other hand, the production capacity of the Cybertruck electric pickup truck was in the ramp-up period, which caused short-term pressure on the gross profit margin.
Promote high-end new products.
In 2024, the two will launch more new products, especially BYD, which is determined to take the high-end route.
Tesla's best-selling models in 2023 are the Model 3 and Model Y, with 177 deliveries in 202350,000 units, accounting for 96% of the total.
In the early morning of December 1, 2023, Tesla's electric pickup Cybertruck delivery event was held at the Texas Gigafactory in the United States. According to Tesla's official website in the United States, the model is available in three versions, with a rear-wheel drive version, all-wheel drive version, and cyberbeast version starting at $60,990, $79,990, and $99,990, respectively. Tesla's Cybertruck kicked off its China tour on January 28.
In accordance with 108With a net profit of $8.2 billion and sales of $1.81 million, Tesla's net profit per car is about 0$60,000.
Zeng Duohong, an analyst at Soochow, said that BYD's net profit for the whole year of 2023 is expected to be nearly 10,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Looking forward to 2024, taking into account factors such as the optimization of the model structure brought about by the gradual increase in the number of first-class models, the price reduction of lithium carbonate and other factors can partially offset the decline of **, and it is expected that the profit of a single vehicle in 2024 will be about 080,000 yuan to 090,000 yuan. In 2024, BYD will launch more than 10 facelifted models of Dynasty and Ocean, 3 models of Denza, Formula Leopard 8 and Leopard 3, and Yangwang U7 and U9.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia**, told the first financial reporter that Tesla focuses on a few explosive products, and the short-term gross profit margin is higher, in 2023"* Battle"Let electric vehicles replace a lot of joint venture fuel vehicle share, but relatively speaking, it is not very sufficient, in 2024, with the ** chain continues to reduce prices, there will be a new round of price reductions for vehicles.
Behind the market cap gap.
According to the latest ** price, BYD's market value is 500.6 billion yuan, Tesla's is 608 billion US dollars, and Tesla is more than eight times the level of BYD. In the view of industry insiders interviewed by the first financial reporter, the reasons behind it include differences in risk appetite and profitability.
According to the net profit of 30 billion yuan in 2023, BYD's price-earnings ratio is about 17 times, and Tesla's is about 56 times (108.$8.2 billion net profit).
Fu Wenhao believes that on the one hand, the difference in the valuation of the two companies is due to the fact that the risk appetite of China's ** market at the current stage is relatively lower than that of the US ** market; On the other hand, due to globalization and the accumulation of research and development of intelligent driving, Tesla has more obvious advantages. However, looking forward to the future, as BYD continues to make efforts in intelligence and continues to expand in overseas markets, it is expected to continue to contribute to its performance, and it is expected to achieve a certain degree of improvement in valuation.
Lin Jiayi analyzed that Tesla has few models and large-scale procurement makes the cost control of the first chain better; Overall, because BYD is larger, most of the first chain is self-supplied, and cost control has also improved. If Tesla's follow-up new products cannot be sold, the valuation logic will be destroyed and a downward auto stock logic will return. BYD may also be basically at the high level of its own cycle, and growth will also be a problem, affecting subsequent expectations. The United States is currently in the stage of chasing up funds, the domestic market is in the pessimistic stage, and the cross-market scissors gap still exists.
Public information shows that Cathy. Wood's Ark Investment Management continued to increase its position in Tesla on Monday, January 29, and since December 20 last year, Wood's ** has been adding to its position in Tesla, and so far this year, the company has accumulated more than 1$400 million**.
Deng Xiaofeng, partner and chief investment officer of Gao Yi Assets, who has withdrawn from the list of BYD's top ten shareholders at the end of September 2023, once said that the automotive industry itself is a highly competitive industry and an industry with a product cycle. In the past, everyone looked forward to the changes in the automobile industry, but from 2023, we will enter the future"Dreams"to"Reality"A new stage.
Since the first start in August 2022** to November 2023, Berkshire Hathaway has sold more than 13.8 billion BYD H shares. Previously, Buffett said when talking about BYD that during the period of cashing out BYD**, BYD's sales performance was excellent, and selling BYD** will help better capital allocation, BYD is"Exceptional company"。
Intern Coco Wong contributed to this article).