It is said that "reaching level 4 or higher is very powerful"!
The 2024 family income scale is officially announced, what grade is your family in?
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the 2024 household income scale, and the phrase "reaching level 4 or above is powerful" has also been widely circulated on the Internet. Faced with the reality of huge income disparities, how should we view this topic?
At the end of 1918, Liang Ji, a Confucian scholar, asked his son Liang Shuming: "Will this world be good?" ”
Liang Shuming replied: ".I believe that the world is getting better day by day
Since then, the entire 20th century has seen almost all of China and the world in turmoil.
Today, more than 100 years later, the pandemic of the century has been superimposed on the changes of a century, the Ukraine crisis has dragged the Eurasian continent to the brink of turmoil, the world economic growth has slowed down, and the anxiety brought by the times has fallen on the heads ......of ordinary peopleThe world is becoming more and more chaotic.
In the midst of turmoil and uncertainty, trying to survive has become the consensus of all.
2024 is a very crucial year, will this year be good? What about China's national fortunes? Once again, it has become the question of the times.
In 2024, the start is very "magical".
No one expected that after the Russia-Ukraine war and the Palestinian-Israeli war, the biggest "black swan" event in the global security pattern was the Korean Peninsula. On the second day of the New Year, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, was attacked and bloodied in the streets. North Korea has made harsh remarks, saying that the relationship between the two Koreas is completely hostile and that "reunification can never be completed." As soon as the words fell, the DPRK conducted artillery training and fired more than 200 rounds of coastal artillery. Therefore, this year is "the year when the two Koreas are most likely to have a conflict."
In November last year, in Argentina**, the political amateur Milley was elected as the new **, starting an unprecedented "political experiment". But the bigger variables are behind, and the global super ** year has come. In the next 12 months, about 40 countries and regions around the world will hold important elections, including the United States, Russia, India, Indonesia, Ukraine, etc.
These countries and regions together account for 42 percent of global economic output, and elections are the result of the popular choices of 3.2 billion people. Therefore, some people call 2024 a "year of reckoning with contradictions". Security and stability are the primary prerequisites for development. Global elections, increased uncertainty in the world situation, and geopolitical tensions have undoubtedly exacerbated global economic risks, becoming one of the biggest investment risks.
02. Plate-based world economy
In the midst of the "recession theory", the U.S. economy is thriving, dollar assets are bucking the trend**, inflation has fallen to 3%, unemployment has remained at a historic low, employment, consumption and services have maintained strong momentum, and the dollar hegemony has once again demonstrated its strong power.
By 2024, the world economy may be tepid as inflation remains high, interest rates remain high, and geopolitical risks continue to rise. Some scholars** say that 2024 will be a "year of mediocrity" for the world economy.
Affected by the changes in the global macro environment and the endogenous logic of China's economy, China's economy is in a period of structural adjustment, and the traditional model based on "iron public foundation" has encountered a crisis. The new economy, which is dominated by new infrastructure and scientific and technological innovation, is in the ascendant, and the downward pressure on the economy is greaterIn the throes of the next 2-3 years, be prepared to live a hard life.
At the ** economic conference held in December last year, there were two directional adjustments: first, high-quality development is the last word in the new era; Secondly, we insist on establishing first and then breaking, planning before acting, step by step, and steady and steady. Overall. In 2024, China will make great efforts to stabilize growth and de-risk.
03. The global ** chain is diverted
The outbreak of the epidemic superimposed on the external situation, the fragile and changeable global chain, disrupted the rhythm of global manufacturing, coupled with the prevalence of protectionism and the rise of unilateralism, the consciousness of sovereignty of the national chain has awakened. **Chain security, which replaces the consideration of pursuing cost and efficiency, has become the preferred factor.
The first is localized reshoring (onshore, nearshore). The second is regionalization. The third is fragmentation.
In the future, the world's factory manufacturing center is still in ChinaAs Yao Yang, president of the Peking National Development Institute, said, in the next 30 years, China's position as the world's factory will not be replaced.
04, if you don't go to sea, you're out
China is going global. In 2024, going overseas will become a new dividend for the development of Chinese enterprises.
In 2024, there are three major trends for Chinese enterprises to go overseas: First, return to the essence of business and localize operations. The second is the diversification of the direction of going to sea. Third, the background of science and technology is getting heavier and heavier.
05. China's door is opening wider and wider
When Premier Li Qiang was holding a meeting abroad, he made a special speech"Non-cooperation is the biggest risk, and non-development is the biggest insecurity."
06. Real estate bottomed out?
In the past year, there have been too many historical moments: the famous macroeconomist Gao Shanwen analyzed in an articleThe current real estate market, both in terms of investment and the corresponding residential sales area, is significantly lower than its long-term reasonable center.
That is, the real estate market is still in a period of adjustment, but the excessive downward adjustment of real estate triggers an overreaction in the market, resulting in a downturn in the real estate market. By 2024, the policy signal is very clear, real estate is the leading industry, and the healthy development of real estate should be supported. But now real estate companies generally do not have the enthusiasm to buy land and build buildings. From January to November 2023, the national real estate development investment fell by 9 percent year-on-year4%, the area of commercial housing sales decreased by 8%, and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 52%。
The real estate market needs a certain recovery period, but it is not certain that it has bottomed out. Gao Shanwen thinksUnder ideal conditions, some leading real estate companies can resume financing under normal market-oriented conditions, and the financing cash flow can return to normal, which is the most reliable sign of the liquidity crisis.
When will the general decline in house prices stop? Financial scholar Xiang Shuai believes that affected by the most volatile and short-term supply and demand in the marketAfter the 2024 quarter, the general decline in house prices is likely to stop.
From the perspective of policy guidance, China is promoting a new real estate development model from top to bottom, establishing a dual-track system of "affordable housing + commercial housing", and the "three major projects" are a key part of the implementation of the new real estate development model.
In the future, the two systems of affordable housing and commercial housing are independent of each other and complement each other, and it is expected that commercial housing will return to commodity attributes, and the core competitiveness of commercial housing in the future is good products and services.
If we look at it in the long run, population is the key factor, and there is still room for growth in China's urbanization, which is estimated to reach 75%-80% in 2035-2050, and there is still 1About 500 million to 200 million people have moved into cities, but the next step in China's urban process is still to concentrate in large cities (metropolitan areas).This means that China's real estate will also usher in an era of differentiation.
In the industry, artificial intelligence is already a "deterministic variable" and is seen as an opportunity at the level of the industrial revolution to fundamentally change production and life.
The new round of "chip ban" in the United States is accelerating domestic substitution. Huawei's Ascend chips, Alibaba's Pingtouge, and ZTE's ZTE Microelectronics all have their own advanced process AI chips.
In the near future, artificial intelligence may emerge enterprises and individuals who "want to use, dare to use, and can use AI", and are at the forefront of the times.
08. The "life and death situation" of new energy vehicle companies
Like the AI industry, new energy vehicles are a major explosion point of future growth space.
The strong are always strong, and the winner is king. Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, asserted:More than 100 new energy vehicle companies will survive the fittest in the competition, and finally concentrate on a few leading enterprises.
The car of the future is not only a traditional travel tool, but also an intelligent space, carrying an important scene for people's better lifeA large number of traditional industries will rely on automobiles as carriers to achieve transformation and upgrading.
09. New quality productivity
On the new energy production side, as a policy-led industry, in 2023, the manufacturing of midstream and upstream equipment for photovoltaic and wind power will face two major problems: Overcapacity and ** war. This year, with the effect of policies that favor traditional energy, the growth rate of demand for wind power and photovoltaic power may be impacted, and the growth rate will slow down.
In 2024, there may be more exciting industries in the field of new energy. Last year, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) launched the implementation of the Future Industry Sailing Action, clarifying that the field of controllable nuclear fusion is the only direction for future energy.
Controlled nuclear fusion is equivalent to an "artificial sun", and in theory, the amount of clean energy produced by controlled nuclear fusion is almost unlimited, and it is also the next generation of energy that the world is competing for.
10. The emotional economy exploded
In 2023, there will be a popular meme on the Internet: "Between work and school, I chose Shangxiang; Between seeking others and seeking oneself, he chose to seek Buddha. This is not only a joke, behind it is a "temple fever", the number of orders for temples and other related scenic spots has skyrocketed, Lama Temple bracelets are sought after, and temple volunteers are hard to find. In addition to oriental culture, Halloween in Shanghai has also become a collective carnival for young people.
Emotional value is becoming a "just-in-demand consumer product" for young people, according to DT Business Observer researchThe four mainstream subdivided emotions of contemporary young people are happy and decompressed, hot-blooded, relaxed and real.
For example, dopamine color matching and Maillard trend. Psychologists have found that bright colors can relieve stress. As a result, many stores will adjust the mood of customers through colors and backgrounds.
Behind the explosion of the emotional economy is that modern people are facing an uncertain future, and this great mental pressure has put many people in a state of powerlessness and contraction, and anxiety is spreading in society.
How modern man accomplishes a spirit"**In 1958, sociologist Baudrillard wrote "Consumer Society", in which he believed that people's consumption of things is essentially the consumption of the symbolic meaning behind the objects. In the process of seeking inward, the emotional economy is the outlet and the carrier.
Changes in consumption structure brought about by changes in demand. Compared with the functional value of goods, consumers pay more attention to enjoyment consumption and spiritual consumption, whether it is positive emotions or soothing negative emotions, which reflects people's yearning and pursuit of a better life, refusing to accept spiritual internal friction, and taking the initiative to enjoy life and realize themselves.
As a result, sentiment value is seen as the next growth "track" worth exploring.
Conclusion
Everyone is a product of the times, but people cannot choose the times.
When the world is full of turmoil and uncertainty, how do businesses and individuals manage themselves?
Great businesses are often born in the winter months. Japan's century-old enterprises have all experienced wars, depressions and other hardships, but they have faced difficulties head-on and tempered a resilience and calmness in the midst of adversity.
For example, the business philosophy of the Tsukaki Group is "good for all three parties" (good for the buyer, good for the seller, and good for the society), and the business management is not only a "money-making machine", but also a social unit, a business platform that serves others and the world, and this business philosophy has allowed the Tsukaki Group to go through the wind and rain for 150 years.
It's like *** said,"Whoever sees no light in the darkness is a coward and an opportunist".
No one can ** in the future, but we can prepare for it and choose how to experience it. For individuals, it is only by maintaining a concentration in the midst of turmoil and doing difficult and correct things that it is possible to "overcome this era in yourself".
As Hu Linyi said:The world is chaotic and my heart is autonomous, and it is the right way.
That said, staying alive in 2024 is key. Let's talk about the future.