The Philippines' frequent provocations against China's Scarborough Shoal during this year's Lunar New Year are seen as an attempt to take advantage of China's festive season in an attempt to negatively impact China through provocative sailing. Chinese expert Liu Heping pointed out that the real purpose of the Philippines is not Scarborough Shoal, but Ren'ai Jiao. The Philippines hopes to attract China's attention by provoking near Scarborough Shoal and attracting the presence of Chinese coast guard vessels, thereby creating the conditions for its further incursion into Second Thomas Shoal. In this regard, Liu Heping proposed his own solution, believing that it was not feasible to directly sink or tow away the Philippine ships. In contrast, the problem should be solved by setting up a barrage net around the ship to isolate Philippine supplies to the ship.
However, the author has some different views on Liu Heping's view. First of all, there is indeed a kind of fluke in the Philippines' provocative actions, but Second Thomas Shoal is not the only target for the Philippines. Scarborough Shoal has been completely reclaimed by China, and China's actual control over it can deal with all kinds of contingencies, so it is difficult for the Philippines to change the situation at Scarborough Shoal by sending coast guard ships. However, the reef is strategically important for the Philippines, which hopes to seek further incursions into the reef by diverting China's attention. The problem at Second Thomas Shoal is far more than just a matter of supplies, and the Philippines would rather like to get construction supplies to reinforce the grounded landing ship. As long as the landing ships remain, Philippine control over Second Thomas Shoal will not be weakened.
Regarding the way to deal with the landing ships, Liu Heping believes that it is not feasible to directly sink or tow them away, and that setting up a barrage net around the ship can solve the problem. However, I don't think there's an essential difference between setting up a blocking net and sinking or towing it away. Although China has the ability to carry out such an operation, such an approach is bound to exacerbate the contradictions and conflicts between China and the Philippines and further complicate the situation. The blockade of the landing ships will lead to the mobilization of more coast guard forces in our country to defend against them, and the Philippines may act more recklessly. At present, I personally believe that on-the-ground control measures should be adopted in accordance with the consensus reached between China and the Philippines at the South China Sea consultation meeting on January 17. This means that the Philippines can still transport daily necessities into Second Thomas Shoal, but the Chinese coast guard will maintain normal patrols and strictly prohibit the delivery of construction supplies to the Philippines. Only in this way can we stabilize the situation at Ren'ai Jiao and in the South China Sea as a whole to the greatest extent.
The Philippines frequently provokes China's Scarborough Shoal in an attempt to achieve its own goals by provoking during China's festive season. The Philippines believes that after the incident at Scarborough Shoal, China will be distracted by the holiday and thus use this opportunity to break into Second Thomas Shoal. However, China should realize that what the Philippines is really concerned about is Second Thomas Shoal. For China, Scarborough Shoal has been completely reclaimed, and the actual control force is sufficient to deal with all kinds of scenarios, but Ren'ai Jiao is of great strategic value to the Philippines.
In response to the Philippine attempt, Chinese expert Liu Heping proposed a practical plan, that is, to set up a barrage net around the Philippine landing ships to block the Philippines' supply of ships and solve the problem fundamentally. However, I have some different views on this approach. First of all, the Philippines' luck mentality should not be underestimated, and they may take a tougher approach, which is a huge challenge for China. Second, while the idea of intercepting a ship may seem feasible, there are bound to be some risks and uncertainties involved in the actual operation. The Philippines may take aggressive actions to try to break through the interception net, leading to more tensions. Therefore, we need to consider various factors and develop a more comprehensive and well-thought-out response strategy.
Looking back at the South China Sea consultation meeting between China and the Philippines, we can see that the two sides reached a consensus on the issue of Second Thomas Shoal, that is, the two sides should implement on-the-spot control measures as much as possible. This means that China will allow the Philippines to transport household goods into Second Thomas Shoal, but will strictly prohibit construction supplies. Such a management approach would stabilize the situation at Second Thomas Shoal and the South China Sea as a whole as much as possible, and would be beneficial to China. Therefore, I personally believe that this consensus should be upheld and strengthened, and at the same time, maritime patrols and surveillance in the South China Sea should be further strengthened to ensure China's territorial and maritime security.