The future direction of the Middle East is a matter of great concern, and the UK** has conducted an in-depth analysis of this. There are a few important points worth noting.
First, the United States has been trying to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Second, the United States has long had ambitions to conquer Iran, but it is practically impossible to implement them. At present, even US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are restoring relations with Iran and engaging in friendly exchanges.
Third, despite the intention of the United States to conquer Iran, the current Biden ** seeks to avoid getting involved in a long war. U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is caught in a dilemma, with no certainty as to whether to continue to increase or withdraw troops.
The authoritative article by the United Kingdom provides an in-depth analysis of the foreign policy of the United States in the Middle East, especially in Iran. Although the United States aspires to defeat Iran completely, it is actually helpless, and even some of the best Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have made it clear that they support Iran and support the just struggle of the Palestinians.
The analysis of the United Kingdom is basically true and worthy of in-depth study.
The United States has always harbored the intention of subverting the Iranian regime, but there is a huge gap between what it thinks and what it actually does.
Since the outbreak of the revolution in Iran in 1979, which overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the regime of the Islamic Republic, the United States has further escalated its hostility towards Iran. During the Iran-Iraq war, the United States even supported Iraq's invasion of Iran and cut off military aid to Iran.
Successive U.S. leaders, with the exception of Obama, have the idea of subverting the Iranian regime. However, Iran, under the encirclement of the United States, did not fall, but developed its own defense industry. Today, Iran has a powerful army, navy and air force, its drones are successful on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, more than 3,000 ballistic missiles cover military bases in the United States and Israel, and 10 million militias are ready to defend the country.
Therefore, the United States needs to recognize the possible consequences of invading Iran. Not only are the U.S. forces attacked in the Middle East, but they also have to bear the enormous manpower pressure to pacify the Iranian militias. Even the Afghan Taliban have made the United States suffer, not to mention the Iranian militias that dare to face the Iran-Iraq war and dare to challenge the United States.
Clause. Second, the United States has attempted to intervene militarily in Iran, but its actions have not been supported by the international community, including its allies in the Middle East.
U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is often influenced and calculated by its Arab allies. For example, in the 1991 Gulf War, the United States received support from many countries, including the active participation of Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The war, which was fought under the authority of the United Nations to force Iraq to withdraw its troops from Kuwait, was a legitimate military operation. However, by 2024, the U.S. military operation against Iraq was not authorized by the United Nations and directly supported Israel's invasion of Palestine, which caused disgust from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran has received support from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates because of its unwavering support for the just struggle of the Palestinian people.
The United States continues to insist that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will support its actions against Iran if U.S. forces invade Iran. However, this is not the case, and there was a miscalculation in the strategic calculations of the United States on the Iranian issue. To this day, U.S. operations in the Middle East remain bogged down and lack a clear direction.
There are many reasons why the US military deployment in the Middle East has fallen into a passive state. The failure of the United States to clarify its next course of action in the Middle East has led to uncertainty about military deployments. Despite the defeat of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, it has not reflected on the failures of wars of aggression that were waged without the authorization of the United Nations.
In addition, the fact that the United States is trying to maintain its military superiority in the Middle East to suppress Iran, but does not dare to take direct action against Iran, shows that the United States strategy in the Middle East is in a dilemma. Even if Trump is aggressive, he will not dare to directly provoke the Iranian regime, nor will he dare to expand the scale of the military conflict in the face of Iran's missile counterattack.
As a result, the United States' diplomatic and military deployment in the Middle East is facing a dilemma, and its strategy is gradually showing a passive tendency.