Zhitong Financial APP learned that CITIC ** released a research report saying that the CITICS-CLSA CRR team surveyed 1,600 urban residents across the country showed that the interest in traveling during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is high, which is significantly higher than the Spring Festival and recent public holidays last year, and the expectations of the surveyed residents for long-distance travel and outbound travel will continue to improve during the Spring Festival in 2024, and the per capita consumption expenditure is expected to further increase compared with the summer and National Day in 2023. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, it is expected that there is still considerable room for growth in long-haul travel, especially outbound travel. Surveyed residents' plans for in-person social activities during the Chinese New Year period improved slightly. Driven by the demand for gifts, the consumption plans of the surveyed residents for liquor and New Year goods such as snacks, beverages, dairy products and health products maintained steady growth, and the consumption plans for liquor increased slightly.
The key points are as follows.
Travel during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is expected to increase significantly compared with the Spring Festival of the previous year, and per capita consumption is expected to improve.
90% of the surveyed residents said that they may travel during the Spring Festival in 2024 (including scenic spots and suburbs in the city), an increase of 14pcts compared with the actual travel ratio of 76% in 2023, and +5pcts higher than the National Day travel expectation of the surveyed residents in 2023. 85% of the surveyed residents with a monthly household income of more than 30,000 yuan have travel plans, while only 48% of those with a monthly household income of less than 10,000 yuan have travel plans. In the Spring Festival of 2023, 40% of the surveyed residents plan to travel within the province, 29% outside the province, and the proportion will increase by +11pcts +17pcts during the Spring Festival in 2024, which is +8pcts +8pcts respectively compared with the National Day in 2023. Hong Kong and Macau remain the top destinations for outbound travel, with Thailand being the most popular destination for residents surveyed, followed by Singapore and Japan. The proportion of surveyed residents with an average tourism budget of more than RMB5,000 rose to 32%, compared with 26% and 17% during the summer and National Day holidays in 2023.
The growth of long-distance travel and outbound travel is still considerable, and the enthusiasm for experiential tourism consumption is high.
Looking ahead to the next year, 81% of the surveyed residents plan to travel long-distance in China, compared to 71% in the past 12 months. Forty-six per cent plan to travel abroad, compared to only 30 per cent of those surveyed who have travelled in the past 12 months. The budget for tourism spending of the surveyed residents will continue to grow in 2024, but the pace of growth has slowed. In terms of expenditure structure, scenic spots, catering, and experiential tourism projects are the items with the most obvious increase in residents' interest compared with before the epidemic. Residents' interest in self-guided tours, especially self-drive tours, continues to rise.
The consumption of New Year's goods during the Spring Festival was steady, and the consumption of liquor increased slightly.
The respondents' expectations for liquor consumption during the Spring Festival in 2024 are close to those of the previous year, but the proportion of surveyed residents who plan to increase the purchase unit price has decreased compared with the previous year. Gift-giving is still the primary demand for holiday liquor consumption, and data shows that health concerns are still an important reason for the growth of liquor consumption. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, we expect a slight increase in liquor purchases and unit prices compared to 2023. For Chinese New Year goods such as snacks, beverages, dairy products, health products, etc., the consumption of the surveyed residents is expected to improve compared with last year, but the growth rate has slowed down.
Risk factors: limited survey sample error; There is a deviation between the calculation results and the actual situation; The recovery of the domestic consumer market is not as fast as expected; Downstream demand is less than expected; the risk of unexpected changes in domestic and overseas travel policies; the risk of unexpected changes in exit visa processing policies; The recovery of overseas air capacity is less than expected; geopolitical risks; natural disaster risk; global liquidity is weaker than expected; the risk of large fluctuations in exchange rates; The economic growth rate has declined more than expected, and the trend of consumption downgrade has exceeded expectations; Product** volatility risk; Raw materials and logistics are highly risky; the risk of domestic and foreign policies exceeding expectations; intensified competition in the industry; food safety issues; outbound investment risk; technology research and development risks; cost control is not as expected; The company's business or capacity expansion is less than expected.
Investment strategy: During the Spring Festival, residents' travel demand was strong, which further improved compared with last year's National Day holiday, and the resilience of leisure travel consumption demand was verified. Long-distance travel has maintained growth, the recovery trend of outbound travel is clear, the visa policy is favorable, and the Spring Festival holiday is expected to promote the Spring Festival outbound travel market to usher in a performance that exceeds expectations.
We maintain our view that in the context of macroeconomic trend uncertainty, consumption, as an industry with obvious post-cycle characteristics, still needs time to regain market confidence in the short term. Considering that the beginning of 2023 will be driven by the release of pent-up demand after the epidemic, it is expected that consumption growth in 2024 will show a trend of low before high. Looking at consumer investment opportunities in the short term, we believe that changes in economic expectations are important, and the strengthening of the signal of the recovery trend and the establishment of the trend are expected to strengthen the expectation of a rebound in consumption, thereby driving valuation repair. In the long run, we must pay attention to the structural trends of China's consumer market: 1) consumers return to rationality, and quality upgrading and consumption replacement go hand in hand; 2) Consumers are more likely to pursue happiness in life and are willing to pay for spiritual satisfaction and emotional value; 3) Technological progress and iteration have given rise to some new consumption directions, one is the digital economy, the other is biotechnology, we believe that we can focus on the consumer application scenarios under the digital economy, smart home, synthetic biology under the agriculture, food, beauty and iterative opportunities. On the supply side, we have long paid attention to the ability of enterprises to tap incremental space, and there is still a large space for development in the international market and the sinking market.
This article is from: Zhitong Financial Network.