(1) The status quo of the semiconductor display industry
In recent years, the trend of large size of TV panels has remained unchanged, and production capacity has further concentrated in Chinese mainland; The replacement cycle and the arrival of the sports year have boosted demand; The penetration rate of AMOLED continues to increase, and the industry has broad prospects. In 2020, under the influence of public health events, the supply and demand relationship of the global panel industry has been reshaped, and the home economy and home office have driven the rapid growth of large-size panel shipments.
From January to June 2021, the relationship between supply and demand and the shortage of upstream materials promoted the main products to continue; Since the second half of 2021, due to the impact of maritime logistics and the disruption of market demand in some regions of the world, **high**,It was low at the end of September 2022 and began to rebound in October.
1) Large size panel
The size trend remains unchanged, and production capacity is further concentrated in Chinese mainland. Since 2020, under the influence of public health events, the industrial chain has accelerated the transformation and reshaped the relationship between supply and demand. From the perspective of regional distribution, as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China manufacturers adjust their production capacity, change their strategies and even close low-generation production lines to reduce risks, and China's high-generation production lines have successively released production capacity, the global panel industry production capacity has further concentrated in Chinese mainland, no matter in terms of shipment volume or shipping area, mainland panel manufacturers account for more than 50% of the world.
At the beginning of 2020, affected by public health events, the operating rate of panel factories, ** chains, and complete machine factories was insufficient, and the panel ** was tight in the short term, and the panel ** rose in 1 2 months, and at the end of March, with the basic recovery of panel production capacity, and the continuation of overseas public health events led to a decrease in demand, the panel ** stopped rising, and the market demand was not strong in 2 5 months, and the TV panel ** was stable and declined.
Since June, the market demand in North America and Western European countries has gradually recovered, and the export market has picked up rapidly, superimposed on China's 618**, and the inventory at the retail end is at a low level, which has led to a large increase in market demand in urgent need, and the TV panel has become the main theme in the second half of the year, releasing profit space for panel manufacturers.
In addition, in January 2021, the Asahi Glass (AGC) South Korea Factory** incident exacerbated the tension of glass substrates**, driving ICs to continue the trend of short supply, and the price of some upstream materials (such as glass substrates, driver ICs, etc.) increased, and Samsung's delay to the fourth quarter of 2021 to withdraw LCD panel production capacity had a very limited impact on the global supply side, while downstream terminal manufacturers had a large demand for replenishment of inventory, and the demand for large-size panels was still very strong.
Although the first half of 2021 is the traditional off-season for the industry, demand continues to remain strong, and panels remain high**; After June 2021, demand growth slowed and panels** began to fall back. According to wind, since 2022, the fluctuation of global TV panels has been large and cyclical.
In September 2022, the average unit price of 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-storage TV panels in the third quarter of 2022 decreased compared with the fourth quarter of 202133%, the decrease is more obvious; Since October 2022, TV panels** have begun to recover, with the unit price of the four sizes of panels in November 2022 being 43% higher than in September 2022 for two consecutive months***.
However, from the second quarter of 2023, as the head panel manufacturers reduce production, the superimposed terminal inventory is gradually digested, and large-size panels** are gradually rebounding, as of the end of November 2023, the average TV panels of all mainstream sizes** are up 25 50% compared with the end of 2022. With the improvement of the competitive landscape and the recovery of terminal demand, high-end panel products are expected to continue, with good industry prospects.
2) Small and medium-sized panels
In the field of small and medium-sized sizes, the penetration rate of AMOLED continues to increase. In recent years, with the development of small and medium-sized display technology, the market has shown a trend of coexistence of A-SI, LTPS, AMOLED and other technologies. A-SI technology has been developed for the longest time, and the market will continue to exist for a long time with the advantages of better cost performance; LTPS is relatively stable in mid-range smartphones by virtue of its mature first-chain system and high performance, and is penetrating into the application market of notebook computers, tablet computers, vehicle displays, medical displays and other applications. AMOLED, on the other hand, has a rapid increase in penetration in smartphones, smart wearables, laptops and other fields due to its advantages of more power saving, multiple forms, and thinner and lighter.
Especially since the second half of 2020, a new round of rapid growth in global display demand for displays, with the continuous improvement of domestic display panel enterprise technology and the continuous release of production capacity, as well as industry integration and mergers and acquisitions, superimposed overseas production capacity withdrawal, industry concentration has been greatly improved, and the advantages of head enterprises have been highlighted, China has become the world's largest panel production area, market share and brand influence have been improved, and the global small and medium-sized display industry has entered a new stage of development.
(2) Semiconductor display industry trends
For a long time, the LCD panel market has been dominated by South Korea, Taiwan and Japanese manufacturers, and Chinese mainland LCD panel manufacturers have weak voice. Since 2010, with the gradual rise of domestic terminal brands, mainland manufacturers have begun to speed up, and the global LCD panel production capacity has continued to transfer to Chinese mainland. In the investment and construction of high-generation lines, mainland manufacturers are at the forefront of the world, and mainland manufacturers have the opportunity to become leaders in the LCD industry.
The LCD panel industry has obvious asset-heavy characteristics, each production line investment requires tens of billions of funds, at present, mainland manufacturers have occupied a favorable position in the field of high-generation lines, mainland panel manufacturers have 8The number of X generation lines has ranked among the top in the world, and the 10+ generation lines invested and built in the future are also dominated by mainland manufacturers, ahead of manufacturers in other regions.