Independent scarcity penetrates
Hundreds of boats are competing for the stream, and if you don't advance, you will retreat!
Author: Rock.
Edit: Wen Dao.
Style: Junyi.
*: Rhodium Finance - Rhodium Finance Research Institute.
Ma Yun once said that a boss with a pattern only does three things: find people, find money, and find direction.
On January 16, 2024, Taoli Bread issued an announcement on capital reduction. It is proposed to reduce the registered capital of Shijiazhuang Taoli of a wholly-owned subsidiary by 79 million yuan, the registered capital of Harbin Taoli by 80 million yuan, the registered capital of Inner Mongolia Taoli by 60 million yuan, and the registered capital of Dandong Taoli by 9 million yuan.
The newly revised Company Law will come into force on July 1, 2024, and the new regulations require the registered capital of a company to be paid in place within five years. So is this reduction in peach and plum bread to reduce the paid-in funds?
In this regard, the company said that the capital reduction is conducive to improving the overall operation and capital use efficiency, so that the registered capital scale of the wholly-owned subsidiary matches the current actual business scale, and the capital reduction will not lead to a change in the equity structure, and Taoli Bread still holds 100% of the equity of the above subsidiary.
From the perspective of the financial situation, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the use of funds. The latest quarterly report shows that as of September 30, 2023, the monetary funds of Taoli Bread are 24.9 billion yuan, and trading financial assets fell to 0. Non-current liabilities due within one year11.7 billion yuan, with interest-bearing liabilities of 10200 million yuan.
Compared with improving efficiency, Yasui Foods has started financing actions. On the evening of January 19, the "Indicative Announcement on Authorizing the Company's Management to Start the Company's Overseas Issuance of Shares (H Shares) and Listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange" was issued.
Yasui Foods believes that the listing of Hong Kong stocks is conducive to accelerating the internationalization strategy and overseas business layout, enhancing overseas financing capabilities, and further improving comprehensive competitiveness. The details of the work are still being discussed, and the details have not yet been determined.
A+H is ambitious, but investors' bearish attitude is clear. On January 22, the stock price opened with a one-word limit, ** closed at 8662 yuan shares, closed at 79 as of January 2910 yuan, with a market value of 23.2 billion yuan.
As of September 30, 2023, the company's monetary funds were 52$3.1 billion, short-term borrowings and non-current liabilities due within one year totaled 49.8 billion yuan. In the case of sufficient liquidity, the secondary listing will inevitably make the market mutter, whether it is necessary to issue new shares, whether it is smooth to go overseas, and whether it dilutes the company's return on earnings.
On January 29, 2024, Yasui Food's share price hit a two-year low, and Taoli Bread fell by nearly half in the past year. How to dispel market doubts?
What is the divergence of stock price performance?
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Regarding the re-listing of Yasui Food, the "International Financial News" quoted investors as questioning that if A+H shares are listed, the company's shareholders will most likely apply for the full circulation of H shares in the future, complete the ** in Hong Kong stocks, and circumvent the ** restrictions.
In response to such doubts in the market, on the evening of January 25, Anjing Food issued an announcement saying that the controlling shareholder Fujian Guoli Minsheng promised to voluntarily extend the share lock-up period, and it will not hold the company's shares in any way in the next 5 years.
Voluntarily extending the lock-up period is commendable, but market doubts still seem to remain, with the stock price rising less than 2% on January 26 and falling by 2% on the 29th9%。
From a long-term perspective, behind the banner of internationalization strategy, corporate control is not calm. In September 2023, the shareholding structure of the major shareholder Guoli Minsheng was changed. The original actual controller Zhang Gaolu will hold the national strength and people's livelihood 28 for personal reasons54% of the equity was transferred to his mother Wang Su for a consideration of 71.5 million yuan.
Hang Jianying and Lu Qiuwen respectively hold national strength and people's livelihood. 15% equity, and the two parties have signed the "Concerted Action Agreement" to constitute a concerted actor, holding a total of 55 national strength and people's livelihood09% equity, the actual controller of the company was changed from Zhang Gaolu to Hang Jianying and Lu Qiuwen, who acted in concert.
Before the change of the actual controller, the important shareholders of Anjing Food had carried out several rounds of cash-out. According to Flush data, since the listing of Anjing Food, important shareholders have cashed out more than 633.6 billion. Among them, the controlling shareholder Fujian Guoli Minsheng Science and Technology Development has cashed out about 307.4 billion, Chairman Liu Mingming cashed out about 145.6 billion, general manager and director Zhang Qingmiao about 93.4 billion, deputy general manager Huang Jianlian about 40.9 billion, deputy general manager Huang Qingsong about 42.7 billion, these people are the original shareholders of the company.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue was 1027.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of **2593%, net profit attributable to the parent company 112.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of **6269%。According to the China Merchants ** trading software, as of January 25, the share price of Yasui Food fell by -24 during the year38%。Out of 123 food and beverages**, it ranked 119th at the bottom. In 2023, it will fall by -5539%, still underperforming.
What are the deep-seated reasons for the divergence of stock price and performance, in addition to the change of controlling shareholders and the cashing out of important shareholders?
First of all, frequent financing is a consideration. In 2020, Anjing Foods issued 900 million yuan of convertible bonds, and in 2022, it will increase its financing by 567.5 billion yuan. As of June 30, 2023, the fixed increase is 56Of the 7.5 billion yuan, more than 3 billion yuan is still unused.
Looking at the business level, the main business of Anjing Food is mainly divided into three parts, quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, quick-frozen noodles and rice products and quick-frozen prefabricated dishesAs of September 30, 2023, the revenue of the three major businesses was 309.8 billion, 310.9 billion, 186.2 billion. Percentage of revenue. 13%。
Prefabricated dishes are the largest main business, with a revenue of 21 in the first half of 20239.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5819%, compared to 185 in the same period in 202233% of the growth rate has slowed down significantly.
According to the third quarter report of 2023, the company's prefabricated food revenue increased to 310.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4748%, the month-on-month growth rate slowed down further. In turn, the market is worried about the future growth of the company.
In terms of quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, from 2020 to 2022, the revenue growth rate of quick-frozen surimi products is. 44%。In the same period, the revenue growth rate of quick-frozen meat products was. 28%, all of which showed a slowdown in growth.
According to the research report of Guojin**, under the influence of the warm winter, the industry demand in the third quarter of 2023 will be relatively weak, and the stability of the large B business in the sector is better than that of the small B business, while the C-end is not as good as the B-end this year due to the high base and channel factors last year.
Industry analyst Guo Xing said that prefabricated dishes have always been regarded as the second growth curve of Anjing Food, in addition to the slowdown in revenue growth, there is also a low gross profit margin. From the perspective of secondary listing, as a fast-moving consumer goods company with good cash flow, the company currently lacks refinancing rationality. And capital is not a panacea, going overseas is a test of the company's product strength, and the real precautions need to start from the polishing of the basic skills of the industry.
Good business under controversy
Is it too early to internationalize?
laocai
It's not too demanding.
At present, the prefabricated food camp of Anjing Food includes "Mr. Frozen Food" brand pickled cabbage fish and grilled fish, "Anjing Little Kitchen" brand small crispy meat, and crayfish products produced by Xinhongye and Xinliuwu.
Among them, "Mr. Frozen Product" is mainly engaged in the C-end, and "Yasui Kitchen" Xinhongye and Xinliuwu are mainly engaged in the B-end. The 2023 semi-annual report has said that channels such as C-end direct supermarkets have decreased under the high base last year, coupled with the fragmentation of various sub-channels on the C-side, the channel diversion phenomenon is more significant and the performance is poor.
In the first half of 2023, the revenue of Anjing Food supermarket channel will be 44.4 billion yuan, down 14 percent year-on-year71%。Revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 59.3 billion, down 1552%。
In the prefabricated food sector, crayfish is the core item. Taking 2022 as an example, the revenue of crayfish products will reach 1.9 billion yuan, accounting for 30% of Anjing prefabricated dishes60% of $2.4 billion in revenue.
However, compared with other competing products, Anjing crayfish adopts a low-price strategy, browsing the "Honghu **" crayfish produced by Xinhongye Food by Tmall official company 4 boxes of 252g lobster tails, priced at 59 yuan. The price of a box of 750g of 750g products of Guolian Aquatic Products is 60 yuan.
According to the analysis of the Minsheng ** research report, in Q2 of 2023, the gross profit margin of Yasui will decline slightly to 199%, which is related to the decline in the price of crayfish raw materials and the corresponding decline in product **. Hua Chuang** also expressed a similar opinion, and the decline in crayfish** dragged down the overall gross profit of Yasui.
At the same time, low gross profit ≠ high cost performance, some quality control defects in the past have sounded the quality alarm for enterprises.
For example, in June 2023, according to Sohu Finance, netizen Mr. Yan placed an order for Anjing's official crayfish products in the Douyin live broadcast room of star Jia Nailiang, and found bugs during the heating process.
Browsing Black Cat complaints, as of January 29, 2024, there have been a total of 111 complaints related to Yasui Food. The quantity is really not much, but many doubts focus on the quality.
For example, on January 18, 2024, the platform review number 17371064842 shows that a consumer said that he ate plastic pieces in Anjing egg dumplings.
For example, on December 30, 2023, the platform review number 17370705390 displayed. A consumer said that the Anjing fish tofu he bought ate an unknown hairy foreign body.
(The above complaints have been reviewed by the platform).
Objectively speaking, it is not realistic to be in the FMCG track, where there are thousands of users, and everyone is satisfied. The above complaints may be biased and one-sided. However, it is also an indisputable fact that guarding the red line of food safety and emphasizing experience and strong reputation are the foundation of development. After all, there is no shortage of competing products in the market, and there is no shortage of choices for users. There is nothing wrong with reciting the quality control scriptures and checking and filling in the gaps in a timely manner.
Industry analyst Guo Xing believes that compared with finding money, Yasui Food should focus on finding direction and polishing professionalism, after all, going overseas brings growth space, but also brings more challenges of quality control, risk control, and professionalism. Solid basic skills and accurate practical operation are the top priorities.
Zhu Danpeng, an analyst of China's food industry, told Rhodium Cai that it is still too early for Anjing Food to internationalize, and the launch of the internationalization strategy at this time is somewhat advanced, which is inconsistent with the company's actual strategy. From the perspective of the development of the entire enterprise, it is also right to take precautions, but from the point of view of time, it is more ideal to start five years later.
Increasing income again does not increase profits, and the southward movement is blocked
laocai
Compared with the high growth of Anjing Food, it is more urgent to boost the performance of Taoli Bread.
The latest financial report shows that the revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 is 50700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 077%；Net profit 45.9 billion yuan, down 624%。Stretching the line of sight, revenue growth in 2021 will be 624%, net profit fell 13% year-on-year; In 2022, revenue increased by 554%, net profit fell 16%, and it has almost become the norm to increase revenue without increasing profits.
The main sticking point is the obstruction of the national strategy. As a regional bread baking enterprise deeply rooted in Northeast China. As the local market share continues to expand, enterprises are facing growth ceilings while enjoying the high efficiency of centralized operations.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue in the Northeast region was 21800 million yuan, accounting for 3414%, followed by East China and North China with 15800 million yuan, 11600 million yuan, with a total contribution of 76 million in the three regions96% income. In comparison, Central China and South China are only 1600 million yuan, 4200 million yuan.
Objectively speaking, in order to open up the southern market, Taoli Bread has no shortage of efforts, such as the layout of the national production base and large-scale expansion.
By the end of 2022, the production base of Taoli bread has been expanded to 22, with a total production capacity of 45470,000 tons, in addition, there are 30890,000 tons of new production capacity. If all of them are put into production smoothly and sales in the south still cannot be opened, enterprises need to be vigilant against the risk of idle capacity and de-industrialization of production capacity.
As of June 30, 2023, the overall capacity utilization rate of Taoli bread was 7335%, which is higher than that in South China and Central China. 68%。
And in the first half of 2023, the operating profit of Central China and South China will be negative, and with the continuous release of production capacity, if it continues to lose money in the future, it will drag down the overall profit growth rate of the enterprise.
As of March 31, 2023, the amount of construction under construction of Taoli Bread was 11$1.4 billion. The company's monetary funds increased from 45.3 billion yuan fell to 24.9 billion yuan.
In various ways, Taoli bread Kaiwen reduces the registered capital and improves the efficiency of use, or there is helplessness and urgency.
Lu Shengzhen, a fast-moving consumer marketing expert, believes that Taoli Bread's losses in the Central and South China markets come from the changes in bread consumption scenarios, especially the emergence of trendy baked goods, which makes corporate consumers faulty; On the other hand, major domestic and foreign bakery brands continue to increase the number of shelves and product development efforts in competitive regions, and the market competition is fierce.
For the national layout, Zhu Danpeng believes that Taoli bread has a certain brand foundation in the northern market, but the baking development in the southern market is relatively fast. The differentiation of Taoli bread products is insufficient, the matching degree and refinement of the strategy are insufficient, and the speed and quality level of innovation and upgrading need to be further improved. At present, the southern market of Taoli bread continues to lose money, and the national layout is a failure.
The words are sharp, but the medicine is bitter, and it needs to cause enterprises to think deeply.
In terms of sales model, it is divided into two types: online and offline, mainly large supermarkets, small and medium-sized supermarkets and convenience store terminals in central cities, as well as convenience stores, county and township stores, and commissaries in other markets. Online includes traditional e-commerce platforms such as Douyin, Tmall, JD.com, and community** platforms such as Meituan, Ele.me, and head traffic, IP sales, etc.
At present, the offline sales revenue of Taoli bread accounts for more than 60%. How to tap and release more e-commerce potential is a starting point for breaking the wall and nationalization.
Of course, the gold and silver cups are not as good as consumer reputation, and product experience is the core grasp. As of January 29, 2014, Taoli Bread has received a total of 333 complaints. The overall number of complaints is not too much, but the main quality defects such as foreign bodies, expired shelf life or mold during the shelf life are the main ones.
For example, on January 22, 2024, consumers with the 17371123457 number of the platform said that the 120g of peach and plum egg pine bread they purchased was green and spoiled.
On January 10, the platform's review number 17370911056 showed that a consumer said that he found a foreign object in the bread of peach and plum bread he bought online halfway through eating.
(The above complaints have been reviewed by the platform).
Looking back at the rise of Taoli Bread, the bold innovation and quality of the founder Wu Zhigang have contributed to the foregoing. For example, the shelf life of the product is compressed to 5-7 days, which solves the "fresh" pain point of the industry and enables the rapid development of the enterprise.
From this point of view, regardless of whether the above-mentioned complaints are biased and one-sided, they have sounded a warning bell for enterprises to improve. Food is no trivial matter, quality is the core moat, if you want to be evergreen and break through the performance dilemma, you must first start from solid quality control.
The left glove is now and the right hand is divided
What do you rely on to boost your confidence?
laocai
In addition to money, the more important thing is to improve efficiency in people and direction.
On January 5, 2024, Taoli Bread announced that it had completed the fourth phase of the employee stock ownership plan and the 2020 employee stock ownership plan
In September 2020, the company's stock price hit 27After a record high of 74 yuan, it began to continue**. As of January 29, 2024, the company's stock price closed at 693 yuan, a cumulative decline of more than 70%.
It is worth noting that the fourth phase of the employee stock ownership plan (19190,000 shares) and the fifth employee stock ownership plan (101.).780,000 shares) are all transferred by the company for zero yuan, and there is no substantial loss to employees, but whether the incentive effect is discounted needs to be examined.
In contrast, the 2020 ESOP was through the secondary market** at the height of the stock price, but the funds** were mainly borrowed by controlling shareholders.
In view of the above-mentioned stock price decline, it is unclear how this account will be calculated between employees and controlling shareholders. What is certain is that the family of the actual controller has obtained a huge amount of money through continuous **.
According to Sina financial statistics, since 2019, Taoli Bread Wu Zhigang and Sheng Yali husband and wife and their three sons Wu Xuequn, Wu Xueliang and Wu Xuedong have acted in concert with a total of 48500 million yuan.
In addition, the company has maintained a high dividend yield since its listing. Especially in 2022, the dividend payout ratio reached 8331%。From 2015 to 2022, the cumulative dividend is 367.3 billion yuan, conservatively calculated that the actual controller family took about 2 billion yuan.
On December 15, 2023, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Guidelines on Cash Dividends for Listed Companies, focusing on strengthening the institutional constraints on non-dividends and high dividends. It is emphasized that when formulating cash dividend policies, listed companies should comprehensively consider their own profitability, capital expenditure arrangements and debt repayment ability, and take into account investor returns and company development.
With a large amount of cash on the left hand and a large proportion of cash dividends on the right hand, do major shareholders lack confidence in the development of the enterprise? What is the operational efficiency of enterprises in the future, and how to break the situation in the country? Leave all your questions to the answers.
Find the right direction to get through the cycle
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Kazuo Inamori once proposed in the book "Dry Law" that to do business, we should "look up at the road, find the right direction, and do the right thing", emphasizing the importance of the right way of thinking for success.
The transformation from high growth to high quality has become a key word for the development of all walks of life. For enterprises, finding money can only solve a temporary need. Adapting to the trend, finding the right direction, and making precise efforts are the topics that go through the value cycle.
According to "China News Weekly", in January 2024, the draft of the national standard for prefabricated dishes has been released, and the results will be available within half a year at the earliest. One of the highlights is the prohibition of the addition of preservatives, which must be transported in the cold chain.
Industry insiders pointed out that to speed up the unified national standards and norms of the prefabricated food industry, to solve the small, scattered, chaotic status quo and possible food safety problems are the general trend, in this reshuffle and reshaping process, high-quality leading enterprises if they can seize the opportunity, often can eat a wave of dividends.
According to iimediaresearch, the size of China's prefabricated food market will reach 419.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 213%, which is expected to reach 1,072 billion yuan in 2026.
The market is still promising, as a leading enterprise of prefabricated dishes, Yasui Food in the internationalization of the domestic market at the same time, the domestic market has the possibility of further in-depth and thorough.
According to the joint research industry consulting report, the market share of Taoli bread in the short-term bread market is the largest, reaching 3027%。According to the Huaxi ** report, compared with long-term bakery products, short-term baking has obvious advantages in terms of taste, freshness, health, etc., with a market size of about 17 billion yuan, and an annualized growth rate (+19%) much higher than the industry average.
"Fresh" is an important label of peach and plum bread, and the so-called one trick is fresh to eat all over the world. Relying on technology research and development, the company continues to develop new products and new formulas, and realizes "daily fresh delivery" through the logistics management system, deepening the moat in line with the general trend of industry health. In the future, if we can do a good job in the integration of products and new channels, it is unknown to break the national dilemma.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 47 trillion yuan in 2023, reaching 471495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%。Consumption has re-emerged as the main driving force of economic growth, and its fundamental role has become more significant.
There is no doubt that the subdivision track is still long slopes and thick snow, whether the water is big and the fish is bigger, the leading Anjing food and peach and plum bread are shouldering the heavy responsibility. Hundreds of boats are competing for the stream, and if you don't advance, you will retreat! Only by finding the right direction can we go against the current to the new shore of value.
Can Yasui Foods and Peach and Plum Bread continue to sit on the throne?