**The deficit has fallen sharply, has the United States successfully decoupled from China? American farmers want more orders from China, how to reflect the reciprocal nature of China and the United States? The Taiwan Strait is full of landmines, how should China and the United States deal with the risk of war? The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is the highest, but can China avoid a full-blown conflict? After several years of layout, has the United States successfully decoupled from China?
Since 2018, Trump launched the Sino-US war and tried to lead the decoupling between China and the United States, the relationship between China and the United States has entered a very peculiar state. This is due to the poor return of the U.S. manufacturing industry, and the phenomenon caused by the rigid demand for Chinese manufacturing products, even after Biden took office, this phenomenon has not been effectively alleviated, although Biden has fully inherited the Trump-era tariff policy, but still cannot prevent Chinese goods from entering the United States, and the ** quota between China and the United States will reach a record high in 2022.
In 2023, the situation has undergone some changes, according to the latest statistics released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the quota between China and the United States in 2023 has dropped sharply by 116%, with only $664.4 billion left; China's exports to the U.S. fell by 203%, leaving only $431 billion, and the U.S. deficit with China shrank by a huge 29% to a total of $256 billion. With this, Mexico replaced China as the largest importer of the United States, the United States imported $475.6 billion of goods from Mexico in 2023, and the United States' **deficit with Mexico also reached a record $152.4 billion. The U.S. deficit from Vietnam officially exceeded $100 billion in 2023; India's ** deficit is more than $44 billion; South Korea's deficit reached $51 billion.
This makes many people feel that Biden's strategy of partial decoupling from China is taking effect, and China and the United States have successfully decoupled. China Review News published an article on February 14 pointed out that the change in the data of China and the United States is the manifestation of the negative effects gradually accumulated by the United States in the past five years of promoting decoupling and breaking the chain with China.
Backed by data, this series of arguments sounds very reasonable, and it seems that Biden has successfully promoted the decoupling of China and the United States, and the relationship between China and the United States will continue to cool in the future. But in fact, things are not so simple, the ** exchanges between the two countries are long-term and complex, especially in the context of globalization, more international factors need to be considered, and the changes in the data of China and the United States in 2023 are actually affected by many complex factors. From 2020 to 2021, due to the collapse of the global ** chain, the United States' access to Chinese goods was blocked, which led to the accumulation of demand for goods, and Chinese goods in the market were in short supply. As a result, after the gradual recovery of the ** chain in 2022, there was a round of retaliatory commodity imports in the United States, pushing the Sino-US ** quota to a record high. In addition, the global economic cycle is also an important factor affecting China and the United States, generally after the economic crisis, the United States will have a deficit reduction, which means that the social economy is back to normal operation. After the end of the 2008 financial crisis, the US external deficit fell sharply, and the deficit reduction in 2023 corresponds to the economic downturn of the previous two years and the economic recovery in 2023.
In today's complex global ** chain, the import of goods is not China, which does not mean that it has gotten rid of the ** chain in which China participates, according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first 10 months of 2023 alone, China's exports reached 4,760100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, in fact, Mexico has expanded the import of raw materials and semi-finished products from China for processing and then exporting to the United States, so that the United States and Mexico will see a significant increase in 2023, and similar phenomena have also occurred to varying degrees in Vietnam, India and other countries.
So from the beginning to the end, the United States has never really achieved decoupling from China. In the case of China's deep participation in the global ** chain, as long as China and the United States are still in the global ** cooperation, it will be difficult to completely decouple from China. Another incident in the United States also proves that Sino-US cooperation is in the common interests of both China and the United States, and engaging in decoupling and breaking the chain will only harm the United States itself.
The reciprocal nature of China and the United States has also been fully reflected in the field of agricultural products. U.S. farmers are eager to get more orders from China, a phenomenon that shows that China and the United States are not benefiting from one side. In particular, in recent times, China has gradually increased its purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products, although slightly lower than in the past, but still shows the huge demand for U.S. agricultural products in the Chinese market. The U.S. Agriculture Delegation also made it clear about this, emphasizing the importance of excluding political factors. This further confirms the two-way mutual benefit of Sino-US cooperation, and all parties are looking forward to the opening of each other's markets to promote sustained growth.
In addition to the first-level issues, China-US relations are also facing geopolitical challenges, especially when it comes to the Taiwan Strait issue. Recently, the United States has become increasingly ambiguous about Taiwan, which has brought uncertainty to regional stability. In the dialogue between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the US advisers, the Chinese side clearly asked the US to support China's peaceful reunification, but the US response was vague. This lack of clarity in attitude has made the situation in the Taiwan Strait confusing and increased regional instability.
The South China Sea issue is also one of the regions with the highest risk of conflict in the region. Compared with the Taiwan Strait, the geopolitical situation in the South China Sea is more complex. The United States supports the Philippines and other countries in provoking China in the South China Sea in an attempt to create tensions in the region for their geopolitical purposes. China needs to be highly vigilant against changes in the situation in the South China Sea, and take corresponding measures to strengthen national defense and prevent interference by external forces in the South China Sea.
Although some people believe that the United States has successfully decoupled from China, in fact, China and the United States are far more complex than expected. Cooperation is both a manifestation of the common interests of both parties, but also influenced by geopolitical factors. China and the United States need to strengthen communication and cooperation in the geopolitical and geopolitical fields, and seek a win-win situation to maintain regional and world peace and stability.
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