With the thunderstorm of Evergrande, the real estate market has entered a cold winter. The Pearl River Delta region, especially Shenzhen, as the initiator of China's real estate commercialization, has reached a ceiling height, whether it is housing prices or the height of buildings, far ahead in the country.
Objectively speaking, the rapid development of China's real estate is with China's rural urbanization, countless farmers who have suffered in the countryside before are eager to go to the city to be urban people, so the first condition for girls to get married in many places is to have a suite in the city, although this suite is very expensive, to empty six wallets, bear decades of mortgages, but these are not important, birds still have a nest, let alone people?
Realistically speaking, real estate has indeed made a certain contribution to the development of the country and society in the process of urbanization of China's rural areas. Countless people are desperately speculating in houses, most of the flat land in the Pearl River Delta has become a building, and now the building is getting higher and higher, and the flat land is rare, in Shenzhen, the building of thirty or fifty floors has become the norm.
In 2022, among the number of high-rise buildings over 200 meters in the country, Shenzhen ranked first in the country with 189 high-rise buildings over 200 meters. Hong Kong came in second with 103 seats. Wuhan came in third with 80 seats. In Jinan, Shandong Province, there are only 17 high-rise buildings over 200 meters long, and Shenzhen is more than 11 times larger. It can be seen that Shenzhen's real estate has reached the top level of the ceiling in China.
In addition to the birth of real estate tycoons such as Xu Jiayin, Wang Jianlin, Pan Shiyi, and other real estate tycoons, this kind of top rich class, driven by huge profits, the self-built houses of the vast number of peasant citizens in the Pearl River Delta region have also sprung up everywhere, and these houses are not three- or two-storey self-occupied buildings, but buildings with more than five floors or even more than ten floors, mainly for rent. Many Cantonese people can live a life of worry-free food and clothing, and even financial freedom by collecting rent. This shows that although Guangdong's local economy is the first in China, a large part of it should be the economic benefits brought by real estate.
At the same time, the reason why Guangdong is rich is because a large number of people are chartered fathers and women, and they live a prosperous life by renting houses.
In many places in the Pearl River Delta, the service industry is developed, all kinds of leisure and entertainment places, hot springs and foot baths are everywhere in both urban and rural areas, and the local economic conditions must be very good where the service industry is developed. This shows that there are a large number of wealthy and free people in the local area, who will enjoy life only after they have no worries about food and clothing, otherwise they will not have the stomach to fill their stomachs and have the spirit to do those things.
At the same time, real estate is not only built by many migrant workers who go to the city early and late at night, but they only have the right to build and cannot afford to buy the houses they build. If their descendants want to buy a house in the city and get married, they will also need to empty their six wallets and take on a 30-year mortgage. This is the price of going to the city, if you don't go to the city, the meager income on the land of your hometown is not enough to feed the family, so this is an unselectable thing.
With the decline in the birth rate of the Chinese population, the real estate market is beginning to decline, and the country's policy is to strive to land it safely and let the whole society digest the risks brought by real estate.
I looked at the high-rise buildings all over Shenzhen, and the outrageous housing prices of 180,000 square meters, and thought to myself, ordinary people can't afford to buy houses here, so what is the main reason for building so many houses in Shenzhen? Originally, it was not sold to ordinary people to live, but used to beat drums and pass flowers, and existed as an investment in the wealthy group. So in Shenzhen, there are a large number of migrant workers who work and live here to live in a house, ** provides a number of public rental housing, and there are also a large number of rental houses for rent in private individuals, if you want to buy a suite by being a cleaner as a security guard, I estimate that there is no drama in this life, unless you take the wrong medicine and hallucinate, Da Lang wakes up, and it is time to get up and take medicine.
When I was very young, when I learned about the Pearl River Delta in middle school textbooks, the book told me that the commodity economy in the Pearl River Delta is relatively developed, and there is an invention in agriculture, called "sugarcane-based fish pond", that is, sugarcane is planted by the fish pond, cane leaves and cane tails (the top tender part) are fed to the fish, and the pond mud is used as fertilizer for the cane field.
But when I came to Shenzhen in 2001 to work, unfortunately, I didn't see a piece of such a sugarcane-based fishing pond, and all of them were planted upstairs. Shenzhen, China's most developed frontier first-tier city, has no land to develop, with a population of 17 million living on only 2,000 square kilometers of land, as well as various advanced manufacturing industries, ports and other industries. In addition to the buildings, there are small streets and parks and a few hills in Shenzhen.
Therefore, the lack of land has always been a weakness of Shenzhen's development, and Shenzhen has historically belonged to a Shenzhen town in Huiyang County, Huizhou. When the country first established the special zone, it was not much, mainly because it wanted to be used as a foreign import and export processing base, and later Huizhou reluctantly cut its love and assigned Longgang to Shenzhen.
Huizhou has always been a famous city in eastern Guangdong in history, and is in the Pearl River Delta region with a developed commodity economy, although it is generally inferior to Shenzhen, but it has been highly developed, Huiyang District has been fully urbanized, and only the mountainous areas in the northeast have not been deeply developed. Not to the west, the development of Dongguan is in full swing. Therefore, Shenzhen can only develop in the direction of Shanwei beyond Huizhou, and set up a Shenzhen-Shantou Economic Cooperation Development Zone, mainly to do a good job of cooperative development with Haifeng County, Haifeng is the old revolutionary base area of China, and by the way, we will do poverty alleviation and development in the old area.
The whole Pearl River Delta market economy is highly developed, real estate is in full swing, although the real estate market is now generally sluggish, but it is very strange that there are still many places to build buildings. There is no shortage of houses, and there are already 600 million houses in China with a population of 1.4 billion, and the average per capita housing area has reached the level of developed countries. The key is that with the decline in the number of births in the Chinese population and the arrival of China's aging society, it is foreseeable that the real estate market has passed the era of heat and prosperity, and has begun to gradually decline.
In the future, there is indeed not much room for China's real estate development, and it is no longer possible to get rich by real estate. In the market economy, people have a very strange psychology, that is, buy up or not buy down, people's confidence in this matter and the future of the ** determine the ** of this item, the problem is that people are now losing confidence in real estate. Therefore, the state proposed that the real estate market should land safely, that is, a soft landing, which was coaxed up by the whole society, and in the end, the whole society must pay for it.
Now some young people do not follow the routine, no car loans, no housing loans, no offspring, and they don't even get married, how can society develop like this? What is a commoditized economy, that is, the things you produce are not mainly used for yourself, but mainly used for market transactions, and the value created by individuals is closely linked to the market. It is true that market-oriented operation has greatly improved social productive forces, but it can also easily lead to an extremely serious social gap between the rich and the poor, which will affect social stability. Therefore, the state regulates social wealth through taxation, which is the only magic weapon to achieve social fairness and justice and protect vulnerable groups.
The entire Pearl River Delta has become a megacity agglomeration, an emerging economy with a highly developed commodity economy, and is full of dense buildings, especially in Shenzhen, where the dense high-rise buildings make people breathless. This trend of over-urbanization and marketization at the expense of the agricultural base also implies many market risks.
First of all, the large cities are too dense, and there are too many high-rise buildings, which will definitely have a certain impact on the local climate, and the heat island effect and foehn phenomenon in large cities have also increased the temperature of the city, and even the temperature of the entire Pearl River Delta. If the industry of the Pearl River Delta is the same as Hebei, energy, heavy industry, steel, coal and power and chemical industry, then the Pearl River Delta has long been smoky and turbid, and the reason why it still maintains a relatively good ecological and natural environment is because the industry here is based on advanced manufacturing, based on intelligent industry and information industry, and it is not polluted.
Thanks to two mountains and a sea, one is Mount Everest on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, because of its uplift and monsoon, South China has become a land of fish and rice, which is in the east-west direction; If from the north-south direction, then the Nanling Mountains are a great contributor, the Nanling Mountains not only block the invasion of the northern cold wave in winter, but also let the ** belt moist and warm airflow in the process of going north, encounter the Nanling Mountains continue to rise, raining abundant terrain and frontal rain. Coupled with the dense vegetation in the mountainous areas, even in winter, the winter in the Pearl River Delta is nondescript, sometimes cold and sometimes warm, generally about 20 degrees, it is difficult to see heavy snow in Guangdong.
If the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea have influenced the Shandong Peninsula, then the South China Sea has a more profound and obvious impact on the Pearl River Delta. In the scorching summer, even in Shenzhen, the temperature is still not very high, the entire South China Sea provides the basis of the atmospheric water cycle for the Pearl River Delta, and it is also a natural air conditioner in the Pearl River Delta region. The active water vapor cycle in the zone also provides a basis for the improvement of the atmospheric environment in Guangdong, and the dense forest vegetation in the vast mountainous areas of Guangdong undoubtedly exacerbates this trend.
Even so, last year Shenzhen suffered from waterlogging due to heavy rains and floods.
It is difficult to have an exact statistic on how many buildings have been built and how many people have survived in the entire Pearl River Delta, but according to my estimate, there should be about 100 million people working and living on more than 50,000 square kilometers of land. This number is very elastic, because there are many people who work in the area all year round to make a living in the area, and it fluctuates with the ups and downs of the economic situation.
If the economic situation is not good, there is a serious downturn, or if there is a war, the blow to the Pearl River Delta region will be fatal. Because this is an export-oriented economy, in addition to no shortage of water, other materials almost all have to be transferred from other places, and the products produced are also sold to the whole country and the world, so a peaceful and stable environment can create a Pearl River Delta Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Economic Zone.
In Shenzhen, some women choose transnational marriage to marry foreigners, some women want their children to have a better living environment in the United States, some women want to get their own green cards, and some women have several houses in Shenzhen. However, in today's situation of declining real estate, it is already difficult to sell, even if it is sold at a reduced price.
Now everyone is somehow trying to ** their own real estate, but the more this is the case, the more no one buys a house, many people have always bought up and not down, and the era of playing profiteering by speculating on real estate is gone.
But the problem is that it can't be sold, no one wants to be a pick-up man and a big boss, now people are very transparent, due to the highly developed Internet information, so that everyone can see the world more and more clearly, the people are becoming more and more difficult to manage, and the rebellious psychology of young people is especially serious.
There is a ** writer said that he has ten friends around him and eight are on the list, and some cities have added thousands of sets a day, but the people who buy houses can't find it at all, and some houses can't be sold even if they drop hundreds of thousands, and the houses are bought more and more, which is incredible. A few years ago, it was still rushing to raise prices, but now no one cares, house, house, you are always a big stone pressing on the hearts of Chinese, if the problem of housing is not solved well, China's future road will be overshadowed.
Why doesn't everyone buy a house anymore? First of all, China's real estate market is currently saturated, there is no more room for development, the country's policy of housing not speculation is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and everyone has lost confidence in the future real estate market. Then there is the fact that housing prices seriously exceed the purchasing power of ordinary people, and have not completely fallen within the range of everyone's affordability.
Moreover, after decades of development, the control of capital over the market is getting stronger and stronger, the gap between the rich and the poor is serious, and many people at the bottom have no money to buy houses6.4 billion people have a monthly income of less than 2,000 yuan. This kind of real estate model, which is beyond the scope of normal people's ability to rely on the drumming of the rich to spread flowers and speculation, has come to an end.
However, this does not mean that Guangdong's economic situation will go into decline, unless there is a force majeure natural and man-made disaster, because Guangdong people have always been known for daring to think and do, and being the first. Cantonese people are very inclusive and inclusive, accommodating people from different cultures and levels.
Dr. Sun Yat-sen was the first to propose the overthrow of the feudal monarchy and the capitalist revolution. If Mr. Sun had lived for more than 20 years, China would have been much better off than it is now, and the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party would not have been so fierce, and the current situation in the Taiwan Strait would not have occurred.
The Communist Party of China carried out a great socialist revolutionary experiment in Guangdong, and the Hailufeng Peasant Movement led by Peng Pai was the first county-level Soviet power in Chinese history, in order to maintain this hard-won revolutionary regime, 30,000 sons and daughters of workers and peasants were splashed with blood, and the blood of heroes stained this fiery red military flag!
In the Battle of Songhu, the 19th Route Army of the Guangdong Army in Shanghai, despite Chiang Kai-shek's repeated retreat and forbearance, fought back, bravely resisted the Japanese attack, changed the direction of the Japanese army's attack, and laid the foundation for the final defeat of the Japanese army!
After the reform and opening up, the people of Guangdong unswervingly support and support the decision of the first country, Guangdong's reform and opening up is ahead of the country, is the leader of China's economy. With this kind of spirit, Guangdong will not decline!
Guangdong is rich in water resources, not only the Pearl River that undertakes the water of the southwest, but also the Beijiang River and the Dongjiang River, which originate from the Nanling Mountains and are rich in water.
Yesterday I was playing in the Baipenzhu Reservoir in Huizhou, I was flying a drone, and I met a Guangdong couple who also came to play, and the woman called me the boss and asked me about the knowledge of drones. I was excited for a long time, and I called others teachers in Jinan and bosses in Guangdong. I'm really ashamed, I'm a dirty and wild old hat, how can I afford the title of boss, not to mention anything else, just look at my little three-wheeled car that doesn't enter the stream, shame on my ancestors. However, this also shows that Shandong people value courtesy, while Guangdong people are pragmatic and pay attention to private property.
Therefore, for the real estate industry in the Pearl River Delta, a ceiling has been reached. In the next step, in addition to optimizing the layout and making rational arrangements for the development of high-tech industries, I believe that it is necessary to increase investment and attach importance to the central and western regions, and we must not put all our eggs in one basket, which has laid a good foundation for the balanced development of the whole country and for taking the road of prosperity for the whole people.