Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index once again started a 2,900-point defense battle.
The last two trading days of the year have all been spit out in the past week. In the short term, the people who liquidated at the beginning of the new year did the right thing again.
At the industry level, from the beginning of the year to January 9**, coal (618%), utilities (111%), petroleum and petrochemical (0.42%), banks (031%), computer (-9.).36%), electronic (-9.).19%), national defense and military industry (-8.).04%), communication (-7.).52%). The growth sector led the decline, and the dividend sector achieved excess returns.
On the one hand, the market risk appetite is low. In the capital allocation selection at the beginning of the year, funds continued to flow into the dividend sectors with high dividends and low valuations, and they were not interested in the growth sectors that are more dependent on future growth prospects. Based on the ** price on January 9, the dividend yields of the coal, banking, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors in the past 12 months were respectively. 9% and 47%, which is very attractive in a low-interest environment where deposit rates are constantly falling.
On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been revised recently. At the end of 2023, the CME interest rate** is priced in a total of 150 basis points that the Fed has cut interest rates 6 times since March this year, but the recent voice of the Federal Reserve** has significantly cooled the expectation of an interest rate cut in March, and the 10-year US Treasury interest rate has bottomed out**, and the world's major **have recorded**. The A-share growth sector is more sensitive to the 10-year Treasury rate, so it is logical that the decline will be greater.
However, unlike the global major, which has just experienced a bull market, A-shares have been falling for two years, and the logic of following the global major **continue** at this time is very reluctant. Whether from the perspective of China's economic fundamentals, policy or valuation, A-shares should be independent**.
In this sense, the current ** of A-shares is not the same as the ** of the global ** of the dominant logic. The problem of A-shares is not in the fundamentals, policy and valuation, let alone the revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the reason can only be found from the capital side.
*Determined by supply and demand, stock price movements are the result of a game between buyers and sellers.
The stock price ** indicates that the selling power is stronger than the ** force. Specifically, it is divided into two kinds, one is that the selling power is too strong, and the normal ** force cannot bear the selling pressure, which generally corresponds to a higher trading volume;The second is that the strength is too weak, and the normal selling behavior will also lead to the **, which generally corresponds to a lower trading volume.
Since the beginning of the year, the average daily trading volume of A-shares has been at a low level of 712.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 187%。The killing and falling under low trading volume should be more of the second situation, ** the strength is too weak to catch the normal selling order.
From the perspective of the demands of both parties to the transaction, the party of the transaction mainly expects the appreciation of assets, and the party that sells, in addition to the profit and stop loss at the investment level, also contains a layer of liquidity needs.
As far as buyer power is concerned, the current position is an unavoidable buying point from the perspective of asset appreciation. **Willingness is not a problem, whether there is surplus funds is the key. The reality is that investors who insist on buying more and more and holding for a long time have already exhausted their funds in *** and have no money left in their hands.
As far as the selling power is concerned, at this current position, the take-profit order is negligible, the stop-loss order is there, but it is not the mainstream, and the selling side is more based on liquidity needs and has to sell. Liquidity demand, at the micro level, can be many reasons, summed up at the macro level, at least the following reasons: one is the increase in cash demand before the Spring Festival, and the other is the need to prepare funds in advance to repay maturing debts.
The Spring Festival is the traditional peak season for money, so I won't repeat it. As for the repayment of the maturing funds, it mainly corresponds to the Tianliang credit supply in 2023Q1, of which the one-year loan is about to expire. In terms of the use of credit funds at that time, part of it was used for fixed asset investment, part of it was used for prepayment of housing loans, and part of it flowed into the investment market, and in either case, no money was made in 2023. The loan itself did not generate enough cash flow, so it had to look for funds from other places, and selling assets to repay the loan became a last resort.
Recently, the non-controlling shareholders of many listed companies have issued ** announcements to sell at the floor price, which should be the main reason for alleviating liquidity pressure.
On the whole, the ** side, which has the will but no money, and the selling side, has to sell for money. At the end of the day, it's all about liquidity.
In other words, as long as the liquidity pressure in the market is not significantly eased, it will be difficult for the market to stop falling. ** It will trigger more selling orders and lower potential buying orders, which is prone to a vicious circle.
Therefore, the current policy focus should be on alleviating the liquidity problem.
At the micro level, the national team should continue to increase its efforts to enter the market, and the policy side should accelerate the promotion of long-term funds such as insurance and social security into the market, and at the same time encourage listed companies to actively carry out repurchases, and continue to suspend IPOs and refinancing to draw blood from the market.
At the macro level, monetary policy should also make appropriate adjustments and increase liquidity injection (in the past week, the central bank's 7-day reverse repo total net withdrawal of funds was 242 trillion yuan, which has become the main reason for the short-term pressure on market liquidity), and encourages banks to increase credit supply to better meet the liquidity needs of the real sector, especially in terms of borrowing new to repay the old, and introducing encouraging policies to reduce the pressure on the real sector to sell assets and repay loans.
Based on the above logic, the liquidity pressure of the real sector is the source of the continuation at the bottom, so only when the liquidity pressure is alleviated can the decline be effectively stopped. Until then, investors should remain patient and survive the disorderly period under market liquidity pressures.
Note: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this subscription account are only an exchange of views and do not constitute investment advice to any person. Unless otherwise noted, the research data in this article is supported by Straight Flush iFind].
This article was originally written by "Xingtu Financial Research Institute", and the author is Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Financial Research Institute.