Recently, the favorable policies for the property market are still being implemented, just after the Spring Festival, home buyers ushered in a major benefit, the mortgage interest rate ushered in a downward adjustment again, and the cost of buying a house was reduced. And this time the LPR dropped by 25 bps at one time is really rare, which makes many people start to get excited, thinking that the property market is going to take off.
But the author still wants to pour a basin of cold water on everyone, because can interest rate cuts make the property market improve? If it could, then the property market would have risen two years earlier. Look at the developers who are now lying down, is it because of the interest rate? People still can't afford to buy a house, is it because of the interest rate?
Before the Spring Festival, the high-level released 3 major benefits in a row within 3 days, one day at a time, which shows how urgent it is!
First of all, on January 24, the governor of the central bank announced a RRR cut, which will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 05 percentage points, providing long-term liquidity to the market of about 1 trillion yuan.
Then on January 25, Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the real estate industry chain is long and wide-ranging, has an important impact on the national economy, and is closely related to the lives of the people.
Finally, on the morning of January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a deployment meeting for the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, pointing out that it will accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and support the development and construction of real estate projects.
Three major benefits, two of which are to release a large amount of funds into the market, so that the local government can put forward a white list as soon as possible, and the loan will be released, and the efficiency should be improved! You can't grind and chirp and miss the best time.
According to incomplete statistics from the Beijing News, from January 30 to February 4, 2024, 11 provinces and cities released the first batch of "white lists" of real estate projects, involving a total of 1,775 projects, and the total financing demand has exceeded 370 billion yuan. It is also understood that 84% of these projects belong to projects developed by private real estate enterprises and mixed-ownership real estate enterprises.
It can be seen that the local efficiency is also very fast, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has delegated the power of regulation and control to the local government, so that the cities can implement policies according to the city and prescribe the right medicine. So, the following actions are also very fast:
The restriction that non-registered singles cannot buy houses in Shanghai will be canceled, Guangzhou will cancel the 120 purchase limit, and the non-household registration social security individual income tax in Shenzhen will be changed from 5 to 3, and you can buy a house if you settle down.
This momentum is to be deadlifted, and deadlift must first pull a benchmark out, and first put up confidence! But are these measures enough? Obviously not enough? What to do? You have to put out the ultimate!
Shed reform, continue to demolish and renovate!
You must know that in July 2023, the General Office of ** issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Super Large and Mega Cities", and held a video conference for deployment.
The proposal to actively and steadily promote the transformation of urban villages in super megacities shows that the curtain has been opened on the transformation of urban villages in a centralized and orderly manner in China.
Why is it so urgent to promote the transformation of urban villages and promote the transformation and demolition of shantytowns? Because there are three major advantages:
Positive 1: The transformation of urban villages can improve people's livelihood and make the living environment of the people better, after all, the situation of dirty and messy urban villages is widespread, and there are many potential safety hazards, so it is urgent to improve living conditions.
Good 2: The transformation of urban villages can effectively expand domestic demand. In the final analysis, it is still the set of large infrastructure, providing jobs, stimulating economic growth, and transforming not only demolition and relocation but also the transformation and upgrading of some infrastructure settings, which can stimulate the vitality of related industries, such as building materials, home furnishings, decoration, etc.
Positive three: the transformation of urban villages has a driving effect on economic growth. The transformation of urban villages can effectively stimulate social funds, introduce various investments, drive economic development, and bring new opportunities to related enterprises in various industries.
In short, the demolition of shantytowns is a good thing, so the following cities are also urgently following up and issuing standards and announcements for the demolition and reconstruction of urban villages.
Shanghai said that in 2024, it will complete the renovation of 120,000 square meters of sporadic old houses, 310,000 square meters of unfinished old houses, and launch 10 "urban village" transformation projects;
In all districts of Hangzhou, more than 1,700 hectares of land have been announced for demolition;
At the end of 2023, the renovation documents of the 24-year-old community will be issued in various districts of Nanjing, and the total investment in Qinhuai, Hexi, and Gulou will exceed 36.6 billion yuan.
Shijiazhuang announced that 17 urban villages will be renovated by 2024.
It is expected that more cities will announce the transformation of urban villages in the future. Maybe the day of demolition and getting rich is coming again, so will this affect the direction of the property market in 2024?
Personally, I think it mainly depends on whether there will be more monetary resettlement in this round of demolition and reconstruction, and if housing resettlement occupies the mainstream, then it will not have a great impact on the direction of real estate. Because everyone's demand for housing has been solved simultaneously, the market demand will not skyrocket.
In short, a new round of demolition will definitely meet us, and how much it will affect the property market depends on how the following cities deal with the details of the operation.