The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been fought for two years now, but the two sides are still in a stalemate on the battlefield. As the conflict enters its third year, the trend of complication, expansion and prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is becoming more and more obvious, and there is no sign of handshake in the short term.
Looking back at the 730-day Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are 7 things that I didn't expect.
First: 15,628 Western sanctions failed to crush Russia.
According to the statistics of the Russian Satellite News Agency, in the past two years, Western countries have imposed as many as 15,628 sanctions on Russia, of which the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada account for more than half, and the sanctioned fields involve energy, finance, and transportation. However, despite the West's continuous increase in sanctions against Russia, Russia has not been defeated by these tens of thousands of sanctions, but has eased up through the wartime economic model + the eastward strategy, and the West's sanctions have failed at the strategic level.
Second: Ukraine went so far as to destroy almost half of the landing fleet of the Black Sea Fleet.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the two sides broke out multiple rounds of sea and air battles over the control of the "Snake Island" in the Black Sea, and then Ukraine continued to use long-range unmanned underwater vehicles and other means to launch continuous sneak attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As of the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine has destroyed a total of 19 ships of all sizes in the Black Sea Fleet, including 1 missile cruiser, 2 landing ships, 1 landing craft, and 1 tugboat, and the total tonnage of the sunken ships is nearly 170,000 tons. In the ongoing conflict, the 197th landing ship detachment of the Black Sea Fleet has already lost 2 large landing ships, the battle loss rate is as high as 1 3, and almost half of the landing fleet has been destroyed.
Third: Wagner turned out to be a mutiny.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for two years, and the most unexpected thing should be the Wagner rebellion that occurred in June last year. On June 23, 2023, the Wagner mercenary group set up troops from the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and drove north to Moscow on the grounds that the rear camp was attacked by Russian missiles, and clashed with the Russian army responsible for monitoring along the way, during which Wagner forces shot down 6 Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft and destroyed 2 ground vehicles, with a total of nearly 50 people on both sides. Under the urgent mediation of Belarus, the Wagner Group finally agreed to halt its march on Moscow, and the two sides reached an agreement. Two months after the Wagner mutiny, Wagner leader Prigozhin's plane crashed in Tver Oblast, killing Prigozhin and ending the Wagner era.
Fourth: the Ukrainian Air Force is still not completely destroyed.
Until now, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been carried out, and it is also an unsolved mystery that Ukrainian Air Force aircraft are still able to take to the skies and pose a threat to the Russian army. At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian army destroyed the main fleet of the Ukrainian Air Force through air battles and air strikes, but there are still some Su-24 fighter-bombers and MiG-29s that have not been destroyed. To this day, the Ukrainian army still has about double-digit Su-24 fighter-bombers that can be lifted into the air for combat. This summer, European-aided F-16 fighters will also enter service with the Ukrainian Air Force.
Fifth: Russia actually lost 2 AWACS aircraft in a row.
On the second anniversary of the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces were again exposed to major battle losses, and another A-50 early warning aircraft was shot down. On January 15 this year, Ukraine claimed to have shot down a Russian Aerospace Forces A-50 early warning aircraft over the Sea of Azov, but because the wreckage may have crashed into the Sea of Azov, there is no on-site evidence of the crash. After the A-50 was shot down for the first time, the range of movement of the Russian AWACS aircraft was limited to flying farther from the front line, but this did not prevent the A-50 from losing the battle for the second time. On Friday, there are various signs that an A-50 early warning aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile in the Kra**dar region, and it is uncertain whether it was a long-range anti-aircraft missile shot down by the Ukrainian army or a friendly fire of the Russian army. However, judging from Russian sources, the second A-50 early warning aircraft was most likely mistakenly hit by Russian ground anti-aircraft fire.
Sixth: The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline** has become an unsolved case.
In September 2022, the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines that were transported to Europe via the Baltic Sea occurred several times, and the preliminary investigation after the incident pointed to man-made**, but no country admitted to participating in or creating the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline** incident. Since then, Sweden, Denmark and Germany have launched investigations into the accident, but a series of investigations have been fruitless. In February this year, Sweden announced the end of the investigation without giving any results, and Germany's investigation continued without releasing any investigation results, and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline** incident is likely to become a historical unsolved case.
Seventh: Western politicians are still free to move in and out of Kyiv.
On the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, dignitaries from many countries appeared in Kyiv to "check in" to express their support for Ukraine. Western dignitaries who arrived in Kyiv include Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croo and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, among others, who arrived in Kyiv by train from Poland. Two years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is incomprehensible that Russia has not destroyed the railway transport line connecting western Ukraine to Europe, but has also not taken action to deter Western politicians from performing a "political show" in conjunction with Kyiv.