The past 2023 may be a year that cannot be generalized for commercial real estate. From January to December, the ups and downs, the silhouettes of the virtual and the real are strung together with the joys and sorrows of the physical business, and everyone in it also feels that under the changes in the general environment, the business logic of business is being subverted, and the gameplay of space is no longer the same.
Time has its own power, and in the process of groping forward, there are also some highlight moments in the industry. The ice-breaking of commercial real estate REITs, the hustle and bustle brought by Hong Kong people's consumption in the north, the rush of IPOs and frequent overseas trips by new consumer brands, as well as the double-festival marketing and new projects staged in various cities at the end of the year, are all showing a glimmer of upward light.
Following these trajectories, we also sort out and look forward to the trends worth paying attention to in the future, so as to serve as a starting point.
Recently, with the popularity of the "Southern Small Potato" hot stalk, it has become a phenomenal event for southern tourists to "charter" Harbin to visit Harbin. From the airport to the ice and snow world, to the Harbin morning market, bathing centers, shopping malls and other commercial areas, all staged a grand occasion of "people from the crowd". According to the big data of the tourism platform, in winter, the popularity of Harbin soared by 300% month-on-month, becoming the "top stream" of domestic travel destinations.
Source: See Watermark In fact, this kind of physical business heat triggered by cross-city consumption is not the first case. At the beginning of 2023, with the soul eating method of "small skewers + small cakes + shallots", coupled with the ritual sense of "one table, one oven and one wrap", Zibo barbecue attracted a large number of foreign diners in a short time, lighting up Zibo cultural tourism with fireworks economy and night economy, while also promoting the recovery of physical commerce;
Although its popularity did not extend from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the enthusiasm of the public for cross-city consumption has gradually become a trend that cannot be ignored. To a certain extent, tourism and vacation is an introduction, allowing consumers from across the city to deeply experience local differentiated consumption, thus becoming a new engine for physical commerce, which is a new way to solve problems.
What is more prominent is the impact of Hong Kong and Macao tourists going north on commercial projects in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Taking Shenzhen as an example, after seizing the opportunity for Hong Kong tourists to go north, Shenzhen's major shopping malls with good transportation have continuously launched a series of measures, such as free special lines directly to nearby business districts, shopping malls to open Hong Kong dollar payments, and stores have also launched exclusive discounts for Hong Kong people and special PR activities. Under this action, many projects such as Shenzhen's Dongmen business district, Futian business district, Houhai business district, and Baozhong business district have become shopping meccas favored by Hong Kong customers.
Source: Shenzhen Huangting Plaza In addition, major shopping malls have also launched special experience scenes and activities according to the timing to continue to attract Hong Kong tourists to repurchase across the city. According to statistics, according to statistics, from December 30, 2023 to 17:00 on January 1, 2024, nearly 650,000 people entered and exited through Huanggang and Futian ports, and various means of transportation 230,000 trips;A total of about 300,000 passengers were inspected at the Shenzhen Bay Port, and 2 means of transportation were inspected60,000 trips;Luohu Port welcomed more than 520,000 passengers. During the three-day New Year's Day holiday, the total passenger flow of Shenzhen's eight mainstream business districts exceeded 8.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 773%, with total sales reaching 751.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146%。
It is not difficult to infer that in 2024, the public's demands for nearby and distant places will continue to evolve, and it is not yet known who will be the next Internet celebrity hot city, but it will be a new shortcut to revitalize shopping malls by seizing the wave of cross-city consumption in advance.
The market economy is a product of the fireworks of the commercial space in recent years, and under the evolution of the past year, the public has seen more and more diverse markets, and the homogeneous and familiar retail vendors have long been unable to attract consumers.
As the public's pursuit of experiential consumption and emotional value becomes a norm in 2023, the layout of major shopping malls in the market economy has also shown a more obvious theme, and it is linked to specific formats, and the layout of traditional market shops has been extended to more scenes through the layout of the market, which has become a more advanced way of playing. Such as dessert market, barbecue market, drunken market, coffee market, fragrance market, second-hand market, pet market, etc.
As the layout of the market becomes more and more diversified, it is imperative to explore the higher-level gameplay and economic benefits of the market economy. We have also noticed that some projects have begun to explore more "non-standard" market forms, content and market scales, as well as new "chemical reactions" between markets and niche brands and original brands.
Source: Shum Yip UptownFor example, not long ago, Shenzhen Shum Yip Uptown introduced Shenzhen's largest retro party - "Silver Salt Retro Market", as the top IP of the retro market, the market brought together more than 150 vintage clothing, accessories, catering and other brands from Melbourne, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Shenzhen, Beijing, Ningbo, Xiamen and other places, and opened a 6-day retro appointment spanning Christmas and New Year's Day in the L2 brand street of Shum Yip Uptown, which attracted the attention of many retro lovers and hipsters.
Source: Shum Yip Upper Town returns to the essence of physical commerce, and the market is the expectation of people to go shopping in a more modern business form. In the new round of "involution" in 2024, it will be worth paying attention to how shopping malls can make good use of the boxes and blocks, inside and outside of commercial space, so that the market can present more imaginative scenes and sales conversion.
In the past year, although the recovery of passenger flow is the norm, many shopping malls and brands can still feel that the performance of retail formats is relatively weaker than that of catering and entertainment experience in terms of crowd visits and bag carrying rates, which is one of the reasons why the integrated commercial space integrating shopping, food and entertainment has performed better in the past year.
The logic of retail has changed, the reshuffle of commercial space brands has accelerated, and another new trend has also surfaced, that is, the popularity of the owner's brand. And this sign is especially prominent in many small and beautiful commercial spaces with tonality.
Source: Poly Yuzhu TimeFor example, the recently opened Poly Yuzhu Time, the project is the first time-based non-standard commercial entity of Poly in Guangzhou, with the core concept of "a perceptible place of relaxation", and joins hands with many owner brands to jointly form an "open block for unplanned growth". It is worth mentioning that the project has joined hands with many owner brands to open more than 95% of the first stores in the region, such as Rush Foot Coffee Company, Art&Chef, Flying Store, GAGA, LR Yijian Lan, Bird Garden, Chuchulab, Wick Fitness, Upstairs Food Stall, Yuzao Four Seasons, Dalinyuan Fine Chaocai, Human Drink, etc., showing a great differentiated consumption atmosphere.
Source: Poly Yuzhu TimeIn fact, the owner brand that represents personality, avant-garde and specific life attitude has been in the public eye for some time. With the public's desire to buy homogeneous retail brands decreasing, many owner brands that have their own value proposition and have a certain cost performance in the minds of young consumers are being sought after. Judging from the current trend, within a certain period of time, a small, beautiful, and delicate business with a certain tone will be a fertile ground for incubating the owner's brand.
The market precipitation in 2023 and consumers vote with purchasing power, so that many commercial project operators have a new understanding of the "temperature" of commercial space.
In the general perception, the offline commercial space should have an emotional connection with consumers, providing consumers with an emotional check-in scene, an experience space with multiple gameplay, and humanized services, so that consumers can feel the temperature of the commercial space.
In fact, whether it is the past 2023 or the beginning of 2024, it is undeniable that there is a key word that will remain between people for a long time, that is, rational consumption. Whether it is old money, which is not easy to be coerced by consumerism, or the new generation that is gradually sobering up, their consumption concepts have gradually changed. As a result, there is a common phenomenon that the public "only buys but does not buy" when shopping, or the popularity of shopping malls gathers on the B1 and B2 floors.
Source: Business News is followed by consumers' sense of identity with the "warm" commercial space, which is wandering around the comfortable commercial space from the perceptual level to the rational level of visible discounts, more ** activities, and more additional benefits. It is this change in the perception of "temperature" at the consumer level that affects the heat of the commercial space, such as the continuous heating up of outlets in the past two years and the popularity of special stores.
From those who get traffic to the world who get members, it also reflects the objective phenomenon of declining consumer loyalty in the context of fierce competition in stock. In the past year, in the large and small commercial projects we have come into contact with, whether it is an existing project or a new project in preparation, we have clearly felt that membership operation is receiving unprecedented attention, and many leading business management companies are also reconsidering the value of members.
For example, not long ago, Xingsheng Commercial carried out a comprehensive upgrade of the membership system. On the one hand, the online membership platform Coco Go was switched to the new system, and on the other hand, the three-tier grading of the original members was changed to the five-level fission, and the "five friendly" service system was implemented in its shopping malls across the country. With the upgrade of its membership system, the membership points rules and points form, membership level division, members' exclusive rights and services have also been upgraded.
Obviously, the situation of physical business competition for passenger flow will become more and more intense, and after the industry has generally shouted the slogan of refined operation for several years, there will be more and more powerful players to join the "melee" of in-depth operation of members, and improve the experience of high-value members with high repurchase rate from the dimensions of data analysis and technology support.
Because of this, 2024 is more like a watershed for refined operations, and the friendliness of different members such as the elderly, children, teenagers, women, and pets will be more included in the commercial space, which will give birth to more friendly new ways to play business, and will also promote the humanized scale of the commercial real estate industry as a whole.
When the tide goes out, you don't know who's swimming naked. Just as the refined operation of members has become a compulsory course, at present, the era of heavy operation has gradually entered the second half. At the level of content operation, a more obvious trend is that the Matthew effect of the linkage operation of leading commercial management companies is gradually becoming prominent.
For example, during the recent New Year's Day, Sunac Commercial ushered in a good start to 2024 under the overall planning and linkage operation, and delivered a satisfactory result: the overall sales of 15 commercial projects across the country increased by 77% year-on-year, and the total passenger flow was 1.2 million, an increase of 149% year-on-year.
Source: Sunac Commercial Coincidentally, during the New Year's Day, OCT Commercial Management Company ushered in a number of projects with the model of "scene + activity + drainage + transformation", and its projects successfully created a holiday consumption scene through various theme activities, art installations, brand flash mobs, ** and other marketing methods. It is reported that on December 31, the total passenger flow of the whole project of the commercial management company was 71520,000.
Source: Shenzhen Happy CoastIn the urban development of the gradually increasing density of business districts, where people will flock depends on whether the content presented in the commercial space is of sufficient quality. Looking to the future, under the overall management and operation, we can introduce enough rich cross-border resources and launch operations with touching themes, which will also gain the favor of more consumers.
In recent years, the actual number of incremental projects has been declining year by year, and 2023 will be the first year of reduction. On the one hand, some projects have encountered changes in the preparation process and have been "unfinished" or changed hands, and on the other hand, in the context of the increasing difficulty of attracting investment, the preparation period of many projects has been continuously extended. However, in the coming 2024, some well-prepared and highly anticipated blockbuster projects will usher in the market.
Take Shanghai and Shenzhen, for example. According to incomplete statistics, Shanghai is expected to open more than 40 new commercial projects in 2024. These include projects with a volume of about 430,000 square meters, such as Shanghai Huiju, Waterfront Cultural Tourism Gate M West Bund Dream Center, Cross-border Jin Monk City, and Xuhui Vanke PlazaIn the Shenzhen market, 2024 is also expected to usher in the entry of many blockbuster projects, such as Bantian Vanke Plaza, Wanfeng Coastal City, Shenzhen Joy City, Longgang Universiade World, etc.
Source: In the era of Shanghai Huiju Stock, the adjustment and reform of existing projects have brought more and more differentiated samples, and many "non-standard" and "new species" projects have also come out. For the incremental market, people have never lacked expectations, and I believe that these projects that have been prepared over time will bring more surprises about the future business paradigm.
Whether it is the ice-breaking of commercial real estate REITs or the acceleration of commercial real estate transformation, it has prompted asset-light expansion to become a hot word in the industry again. In this process, both old players and new entrants are changing the rules of the game with new asset-light samples.
It is particularly worth noting that with the increasing demand for scene power on the consumer side, the rapid replication of a trick that is eaten all over the world has gradually lost its effectiveness, and has been replaced by an expansion that fits the local area and adapts to local conditions.
Taking K11 Select as an example, in March 2022, K11 Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary successfully bid for the management services of the commercial part of the Shanghai Jinqiao Metro Superstructure Project, creating the first K11 Select in Shanghai, officially entering the asset-light market, and conducting "cultural sandbox" trials in different cities. In its subsequent expansion, Wuhan K11 Select is the home of Tide & Fun lifeTianjin K11 Selectt integrates into the canal culture and is a "testing ground for future life";Wuxi K11 SELECT is designed with the design concept of "Landscape Lingxi: An Unforgettable Artistic Ecological Journey" ......
Source: Wuxi K11 Select With the revaluation of asset value, business has become a trend of "light", and the expansion players of the city's policy and one store and one policy will also be more comfortable and gain more market attention.
Business Watch. Soldiers are impermanent, and water is impermanent. In a constantly changing business market, the new trends of the future go far beyond the analysis of this article. From the business development side, the operation side, the brand side, consumers and other dimensions, the upstream and downstream of the industry are more soberly exploring new business ecology and new rules of survival. After ushering in a considerable start in 2024, it is believed that a clearer trend will gradually emerge under the unremitting exploration of business people, guiding physical businesses to cross the "dragon" gate and go both ways with consumers.