Original Liu Bo team
Just two days ago, on February 19, the official WeChat "Chikan Release" of Chikan District, Zhanjiang City, issued the "Proposal on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Chikan District". As follows:
The proposal states:"It is hoped that the majority of cadres and workers will take the lead in consumption and demonstration, promote the recovery of the real estate market, continuously boost market confidence, and help the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry in the region. ”
This also means,The first city in Guangdong Province to mobilize public officials to buy a house was born!
Zhanjiang Chikan's operation has aroused widespread discussion in the market, and the main contents that everyone is concerned about are as follows:
1. Mobilizing public officials to buy houses is not new, but it generally occurs in small counties with average economic strength
In the past two years, many places have encouraged public officials to buy houses or participate in buying houses, such as Shimen County in Changde City, Hunan Province, Huanggang County in Hubei Province, and Bazhong County in Sichuan Province.
These areas are generally facing inventory pressure, the purchasing power of the county is relatively small, and there is a real need to stimulate new demand, and civil servants taking the lead in buying houses is also to inject confidence and recognition into the real estate market, which can guide market expectations.
2. Guangdong, as the largest province in China and the largest in terms of population, also needs to mobilize public officials to buy houses to stimulate demand?
In 2024, the actual population under management in Guangdong Province has reached an astonishing 1500 million! It is equivalent to one out of every nine people in the country living in Guangdong.
In the past 2023, Guangdong's total economic output has reached 1357 trillion yuan, becoming the first major economic province in the country to exceed 13 trillion yuan.
Does such an economically strong province also need to boost confidence by encouraging public officials to buy houses?
3. Zhanjiang, a prefecture-level city in Guangdong Province and a sub-central city in Guangdong Province, has not weak economic strength!
In 2023, Zhanjiang's GDP will be about 3793600 million yuan, ranking 10th in Guangdong Province, second only to Zhongshan City (3850.).700 million yuan).
The Chikan District of Zhanjiang is one of the central urban areas of Zhanjiang, which is equivalent to Luohu and Futian in Shenzhen, and belongs to the historical rich area.
So, in the context of the release of the property market relaxation policy in major cities, why did Zhanjiang Chikan, as an economically strong city and strong district, issue such an "unexpected" proposal?
While Zhanjiang's GDP growth data shows some positive trends, a more in-depth analysis of the city's finances reveals some less rosy economic realities.
According toReport on the Implementation of the 2022 Budget and the Draft Budget of Zhanjiang City in 2023We can find:
1. Fiscal revenue and expenditure
If a city's general public budget expenditure is greater than its general public budget revenue, this difference is often referred to as the fiscal deficit. This deficit needs to be covered by other means, such as transfer payments from superiors, borrowing new debt, using balances from previous years, etc.
2022: General public budget revenues 1468.9 billion yuan, with an expenditure of 5218.4 billion yuan, with a deficit of 3749.5 billion yuan.
Expected for 2023: General public budget revenues 151300 million yuan, expenditure of 48.2 billion yuan, deficit of 330700 million yuan).
The reduction of the deficit shows that Zhanjiang City has achieved certain results in controlling fiscal expenditure and trying to reduce the fiscal deficit.
2. Debt is close to the limit
In 2022, Zhanjiang's local ** debt balance is 9405.9 billion yuan, close to the ** debt limit of 9430.9 billion yuan.
This means that Zhanjiang has little room for new debt issuance and no significant debt expansion unless the debt limit is raised or otherwise adjusted.
3. Debt repayment pressure
Repayment of principal in 2022 430.8 billion yuan, interest paid 189.2 billion yuan, with a total repayment of principal and interest of about 6.2 billion yuan.
Compare this figure with the 2022 general public budget revenues of 146Compared with 8.9 billion yuan, the expenditure on debt repayment accounts for about 42% of the revenue, which is a fairly high ratio, indicating that Zhanjiang City bears considerable debt pressure in the fiscal revenue.
4. The income from land transfer declined
In 2022, Zhanjiang's **sexual** budget revenue will drop sharply by 491%, mainly by the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights (596.5 billion yuan) decreased by 53The 2% impact reflects a slowdown in the real estate market.
In 2023, the continued downturn in the real estate market will also deeply affect the Zhanjiang property market.
In the land market, the total area of land supply in 2023 will be about 329930,000 is the lowest in the past four years.
According to statistics, a total of 102 land parcels will be auctioned in Zhanjiang in 2023, with a total transaction value of about 43700 million yuan, and the transaction value decreased by 26% year-on-year in 20227%。
In 2023, a total of 43 land auctions will be sold in the Zhanjiang land auction market, with an unsold rate of 296%。
Compared with the land auction data of Zhanjiang in recent years, the land transaction area in Zhanjiang continued to rise from 2019 to 2021, and the transaction area exceeded 6 million in 2021, reaching the highest value in the history.
Entering 2022, the land auction market began to cool down due to the impact of the property market, and the annual land supply data has decreased significantly year-on-year. In 2023, the number of land transactions will be smaller, with a total transaction area of about 329930,000 .
In terms of the second-hand housing market, according to the housing price data of Beike.com, in the past year, the housing prices in Chikan District of Zhanjiang fell from 10,000 yuan to 9,800 yuan, the housing prices in Xiashan District of Zhanjiang fell from 9,000 yuan to 8,800 yuan, and the housing prices in Potou District of Zhanjiang fell from 7,800 yuan to 7,300 yuan ......(Note: The house price is the listing price of the second-hand house).
As the land market continues to slump and new and second-hand homes are downgraded, not only does it reduce key income from land sales, but it may also have a knock-on effect on overall economic activity, which in turn affects other tax revenues.
What really worries Zhanjiang is the latest move in the two first-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen at the beginning of this year.
On January 27, Guangzhou announced a series of important new policies for the property market, including the abolition of the purchase restriction on residential buildings of more than 120 square meters, the exclusion of self-owned housing allowed for rent into the number of restricted units, and the restriction on the transfer of commercial apartments.
On February 7, Shenzhen's property market took a big step: deep households can buy houses without social security!
Due to the low threshold for settlement in Shenzhen, not only junior college and bachelor's degrees can be settled, but also holders of qualified professional title certificates can also enjoy this treatment, which further amplifies the impact of the policy.
The actions of Guangzhou and Shenzhen announce that the two first-tier cities have officially joined the competition of the national wealth group.
The first thing that Guangzhou and Shenzhen attracted was the wealthy people who were close to each other in the interior of Guangdong Province.
Especially in a third-tier city like Zhanjiang, where the economy is not weak, the wealth group in the urban center has the strength and willingness to exchange assets for more valuable first-tier cities.
Zhanjiang is a siphoned city with a population outflow, with a permanent population of 703 in 202250,000 people, with a registered population of 86930,000 people, with a population loss of 16580,000 people.
Many young people born and raised in Zhanjiang have left their hometowns in search of better employment and career development opportunities.
With the recent relaxation of restrictions on property purchases in neighbouring megacities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, wealthy residents of Zhanjiang are also likely to gradually move to these more economically developed areas with more opportunities.
In the face of the dual challenges of population loss and capital outflow, Chikan District, the central urban area of Zhanjiang, issued a proposal to encourage public officials to participate in property purchases, as a leading role in boosting confidence in the real estate market.
Zhanjiang, as the first city in Guangdong to mobilize public officials to buy houses, brings us two inspirations:
First, in the future, there will be more and more third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities that will introduce various "fancy bailout" policies, such as the ** preferential treatment issued by Xingwen County, Sichuan Province a few days ago, deferred down payment, monthly payment advance, etc.
In the future, I believe that there will be more third, fourth and fifth-tier cities calling on civil servants to take the lead in buying houses, just like when Shenzhen called on civil servants to take the lead in buying houses.
Second, unfortunately, the trend is irreversible. The gap between cities will only widen further due to a variety of economic, social and geographical factors, with the stronger getting stronger.
The ability of some cities to attract more talent, capital and resources will inevitably lead to challenges and difficulties for others.
For ordinary people, all we can do is follow the trend and embrace change.